ATL: MILTON - Models

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A all show Milton getting absolutely obliterated by shear as much as a full 24 hours prior to landfall. The contrast between a 160 kt/901 mbar Cat 5 Tuesday evening and a sheared mess barely 12 hours later on the HAFS-A is insane.

That “sheared mess” is still 942mb.

I doubt it’d have Cat 4 or even 3 sustained surface-level winds with a radar presentation like that, though. Almost looks like it’s beginning post-tropical transition.

It would sure be a nice surprise but I’d bet the odds are slim on that playing out. But I sure hope it does.

[CronkPSU]

wouldn't help the storm surge much...would be a devastating hit for clearwater/tampa/st pete etc

[zal0phus]

HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A all show Milton getting absolutely obliterated by shear as much as a full 24 hours prior to landfall. The contrast between a 160 kt/901 mbar Cat 5 Tuesday evening and a sheared mess barely 12 hours later on the HAFS-A is insane.

That “sheared mess” is still 942mb.

I doubt it’d have Cat 4 or even 3 sustained surface-level winds with a radar presentation like that, though. Almost looks like it’s beginning post-tropical transition.

If it was once Cat 5, it'll hit like a Cat 5 in some capacity. We saw this in 2005 numerous times.

[NDG]

Close up look of latest early 0z Tropical models. Landfall tracks concentrated between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key.

[aspen]

That “sheared mess” is still 942mb.

I doubt it’d have Cat 4 or even 3 sustained surface-level winds with a radar presentation like that, though. Almost looks like it’s beginning post-tropical transition.

If it was once Cat 5, it'll hit like a Cat 5 in some capacity. We saw this in 2005 numerous times.

Oh I’m not denying that. Surge is going to be catastrophic if this blows up into a 4/5 in the middle of the Gulf. The rapid weakening could at least spare the landfall zone from getting sustained MH winds.

[Steve]

Close up look of latest early 0z Tropical models. Landfall tracks concentrated between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key.

https://i.imgur.com/eQAKfh9.jpeg

We gotta be hoping for a 2 or less for best case but ?

[typhoonty]

That “sheared mess” is still 942mb.

I doubt it’d have Cat 4 or even 3 sustained surface-level winds with a radar presentation like that, though. Almost looks like it’s beginning post-tropical transition.

It would sure be a nice surprise but I’d bet the odds are slim on that playing out. But I sure hope it does.

Models have tended to be too quick in disrupting storms, especially with storms moving parallel to shear vector. Not something to take to the bank. Freshwater flooding north and surge flooding south seems something to bank on. Helene and Ian come to mind as storms that were supposed to be affected more and weren't.

[USTropics]

I put a little less weight into the the interim models like 06z and 18z, They always seem to be off compared to what I'd call the "main runs". I don't know if maybe there is less data in them or something but it seems that way to me.

I thought someone said this year that 6z and 18z now have as much data as 0z and 12z, at least for global models, even though that wasn't the case before?

I don't believe this has been true for some time. There was some truth prior to 2008 with the way radiosonde data was ingested into the models and our reliance on weather balloon launches (most were done at 00z and 12z), but assimilation of data was switched to a 6 hour window around that time and our reliance on weather balloons has significantly decreased (while important, this also had a small footprint in terms of total data input). Aircraft data provides much more input in today's models, and it would be interesting to get a timestamp of flights between 00z,06z,12z,18z. Again though, with the amount of commercial flights and package carriers, I would imagine over CONUS the difference is rather small. Both of these could be variable, but their magnitude is significantly small compared to the observations listed below.

The bulk of our observations for any given 6-hour window really is remote instrument driven—satellite data, microwave, multi-channel IR, GPS radio occultations from space that track temperature profiles vertically, satellite derived atmosphere motion, surface observation networks, ships/buoys, etc. The order of magnitude for these is literally in the hundreds of millions. While there is a lot of overlap and redundancy here, the true number of bins assimilated is likely on the order of several million.

The likely major difference between 00z/12z runs and 06z/18z, where in-situ sampling makes a difference for severe impact events (Helene being an example, where a critical shortwave trough that is important for downstream development and steering). I am going to say this one is largely myth.

[CrazyC83]

A further south track would be stronger since it would take longer for the shear to arrive, correct?

[typhoonty]

A further south track would be stronger since it would take longer for the shear to arrive, correct?

A further south track would imply a weaker max intensity, as flow higher up is more poleward. Landfall intensity will come down to the inner core resiliency which is impossible to predict. It does seem that a slower storm would go further north as the southern stream has more time to act on it. That's my guess.

[Kohlecane]

Close up look of latest early 0z Tropical models. Landfall tracks concentrated between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key.

https://i.imgur.com/eQAKfh9.jpeg

We gotta be hoping for a 2 or less for best case but ?

I told my Family in Hernado to start paying attention because time is of the essence, also I know people freaked out in SC with the port closure, has anything similar happened near the Tampa area, just curious if stors are stocked up or did people panic buy down there as well?

[jdray]

Early cycle 00z’s out agreeing with Gatorcanes graphic. Not that it’s going to be some Armageddon stuff but Lakeland, Ocala, Gainesville, etc. y’all already know.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

I'm up here in Clay County watching this closely. We know we're going to take some wind/rain/tornado spawns, but just how much depends on its final track.

[Steve]

Early cycle 00z’s out agreeing with Gatorcanes graphic. Not that it’s going to be some Armageddon stuff but Lakeland, Ocala, Gainesville, etc. y’all already know.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

I'm up here in Clay County watching this closely. We know we're going to take some wind/rain/tornado spawns, but just how much depends on its final track.

We got a couple inches of rain out front in the N Gulf. So we have to watch the setup

[Steve]

Close up look of latest early 0z Tropical models. Landfall tracks concentrated between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key.

https://i.imgur.com/eQAKfh9.jpeg

We gotta be hoping for a 2 or less for best case but ?

I told my Family in Hernado to start paying attention because time is of the essence, also I know people freaked out in SC with the port closure, has anything similar happened near the Tampa area, just curious if stors are stocked up or did people panic buy down there as well?

Can’t answer because I’m in New Orleans this week. But I went to Costco today when they opened to get my kids a bunch of TP as part of their move out present. They don’t have any because ignorant a holes on the internet pushed some bs Covid horde stuff when toilet paper doesn’t come from overseas. Not going to get political on people but dumb is dumb.

[FLLurker32]

Close up look of latest early 0z Tropical models. Landfall tracks concentrated between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key.

https://i.imgur.com/eQAKfh9.jpeg

We gotta be hoping for a 2 or less for best case but ?

I told my Family in Hernado to start paying attention because time is of the essence, also I know people freaked out in SC with the port closure, has anything similar happened near the Tampa area, just curious if stors are stocked up or did people panic buy down there as well?

I’m about an hour from Hernando and yes, between the port issue and aid efforts for Helene our stores have remained low stock on essentials. We’ll have to move this to the discussion thread if you need to know more.

[Steve]

I’m not watching too far ahead. But wtf icon 63 hours 970’s north of Yucatán. Signaling trouble maybe

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=63

[BobHarlem]

0z icon, basically unchanged from 18z. 0z does exit into the Atlantic further north though, near Melbourne instead of Ft Pierce/Vero at the 18z.

[Steve]

0z icon, basically unchanged from 18z. 0z does exit into the Atlantic further north though, near Melbourne instead of Ft Pierce/Vero at the 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/2FXeGOU.gif

Beast cat 2 hit but fast across our state. Gonna be a lot of pain on icons scenario but not extreme as it might be. Doesn’t mean some won’t lose their lives or many will have property damage but 970’s is positive despite obvious cat 2 status. Hoping it doesn’t trend worse than that in subsequent runs.

[skillz305]

ICON has been spot on in the gulf recently. It holds alot of weight.

[TampaWxLurker]

Looks just a pinch south on entry point. Just a little tiny bit south of the Sarasota/Charlotte County line. But no east turn like in the last run, continues NE and out south of Cape Canaveral.