ATL: MILTON - Models

[Spacecoast]

Not sure what the GFS is seeing this run for the NE turn but as you noted probably has something to do with slower approach.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GEFS ensemble has a larger spread by Thursday than the 12Z run did, feels like it is going backwards as far as certainty goes. A lot of members hanging back in the GOM on Friday.

[SFLcane]

18Z GEFS ensemble has a larger spread by Thursday than the 12Z run did, feels like it is going backwards as far as certainty goes. A lot of members hanging back in the GOM on Friday.

Yea huge spread a bit more south surely.

[BobHarlem]

18z HAFS A/B and HMON are significantly right of the 12z so far out to 60 hours or so, and slower. and stronger.

[kevin]

18z HAFS-B, I don't even know what to say.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The spread we're seeing on the GFS would be helped by recon data. Let's hope they're able to get that in tomorrow quickly after the first flight. I think after that we'll see the cone shrink significantly and if it's still in/just north of Tampa, welp...

[HurricaneBelle]

18z HAFS-B, I don't even know what to say.

https://i.imgur.com/0ZICKio.png

"uncle"?

[skillz305]

18z ICON being a little south scares me on treasure coast. Shall see what tomorrows modeling brings. Lets see if we windshield wipe down south a little from Cedar/Tampa

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HAFS-B, I don't even know what to say.

https://i.imgur.com/0ZICKio.png

HAFS closer resembles the 4k NAM sometimes. Such an overcooked scenario is borderline absurd.

[jhpigott]

18z HAFS A/B and HMON are significantly right of the 12z so far out to 60 hours or so, and slower. and stronger.

HAFS A/B are at 24N at hour 60ish on the 18z runs. Same time frames on the 12z runs they were at 26N. Considerable south shift

[xironman]

18z HAFS-B, I don't even know what to say.

https://i.imgur.com/0ZICKio.png

HAFS closer resembles the 4k NAM sometimes. Such an overcooked scenario is borderline absurd.

They are not super out of line with HWRF or HMON, a very different model than the NAM 4K. I would expect a convection allowing model like the 4k to overdo tropical weather.

[BobHarlem]

18z HAFS-B, I don't even know what to say.

https://i.imgur.com/0ZICKio.png

HAFS closer resembles the 4k NAM sometimes. Such an overcooked scenario is borderline absurd.

They are not super out of line with HWRF or HMON, a very different model than the NAM 4K. I would expect a convection allowing model like the 4k to overdo tropical weather.

HAFS A joining in

[BobHarlem]

gross

[ConvergenceZone]

18z HAFS-B, I don't even know what to say.

https://i.imgur.com/0ZICKio.png

HAFS closer resembles the 4k NAM sometimes. Such an overcooked scenario is borderline absurd.

I always wonder, if models like this are overdoing intensity so often, why don't they just tweak the code that feeds into the model?

[xironman]

gross

https://i.imgur.com/2QdnFBi.png

Still no sub 900, the HAFSA did get to 901 though

[Steve]

gross

https://i.imgur.com/2QdnFBi.png

918 is crazy but even 950s is destructive Cat 3

[Steve]

gross

https://i.imgur.com/2QdnFBi.png

Still no sub 900, the HAFSA did get to 901 though

Nam 3km will hopefully pull it off.

[Teban54]

18z HAFS-B, I don't even know what to say.

https://i.imgur.com/0ZICKio.png

HAFS closer resembles the 4k NAM sometimes. Such an overcooked scenario is borderline absurd.

I always wonder, if models like this are overdoing intensity so often, why don't they just tweak the code that feeds into the model?

I'm not sure what the answer is, but keep in mind:

• Kirk just became stronger than every single hurricane model showed;
• Unless I'm mistaken, hurricane models (dating back to before HAFS was a thing) are still the best intensity models and have the smallest error in intensity among those available.

[Steve]

Eps late cycle 12z. Y’all watch it center state.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... l_late.png

[Teban54]

Reminds me of the 880s runs for Helene that HAFS models had.