ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mpic]

Anyone in a surge zone in that cone especially Pasco and south from there needs to evacuate!

After the damage that Helene just caused, I just don't get why anyone would even condider not leaving. It just blows my mind. If Galveston would look like it was taking a direct hit, I'd be leaving for points west in a heartbeat especially given the limited roads out of south Florida.

[ROCK]

Wow, just saw this on the latest GFS.
700mb vort is huge, takes up the whole GOM on approach to landfall.
Never seen anything like it before.

Me either..quite impressive if the GFS is right.

[SecondBreakfast]

Getting a pretty sick feeling with this one, folks. The vibes are deteriorating.

[redingtonbeach]

assuming current tracking, can someone post forecast surge map for the west coast please or tell us where to find the model? tKU

[Jr0d]

In my experience storms tracking NE across the Gulf this time of year tend to go inland (into FL) south of where you think they'll track. That's the best Tampa can hope for.

Not great for Bradenton on South. I'm waiting to see the latest UKMet and ICON runs tomorrow morning for a better idea. Hopefully recon data is hitting by tomorrow night's 5 pm update.

Most importantly is upper air sampling. I have been on the road today so haven't been able to look up the missions.

I certainly hope they are doing an upper air mission and that data will be to.the models by tomorrow afternoon.

[LandoWill]

If you're not following the models, GFS basically shifted at 18z from Clearwater to cedar key... that's how much it can shift in 1 run.

[GCANE]

There will be some ionospheric heating taking place in the next 24 hrs as a solar storm from a CME passes earth.
This may cause Milton to RI.
Then he will likely undergo an EWRC within 24hrs after that.
I can see Milton transforming into a massively large cane before making landfall.
I can't emphasize enough that he will be over a good portion of the Loop Current.

[BobHarlem]

If you're not following the models, GFS basically shifted at 18z from Clearwater to cedar key... that's how much it can shift in 1 run.

It was about a 50 mile north/left shift looking at the zoomed in GFS on the paid sites, Went from roughly Palm Harbor to Crystal River. Still a very bad approach for Tampa, especially since it drives water up the bay a bit longer. 1921 Tampa hurricane made landfall in Tarpon Springs.

[Michele B]

OK, "boots on the ground" report:

I went to shop for a few essentials I was low on....about 2:30. Traffic normal for a Saturday afternoon. In our neck of the woods, after about 2 pm, those people who do their shopping and other "chores" have completed it all and gone home to prepare for their evening activities, be it a movie with the family or out to dinner or whatev.

So, today, not so different - except for the number of car haulers we saw. LOTS of truckers moving vehicles that were on flatbeds....at least 4 or 5 of them, carrying 3 to 5 cars each. We figure a few people were moving cars out of harm's way. Right?

Well, an hour later - after shopping, topping off gas cans and such (where there was a mixed bag: some who knew about the impending storm and some with no clue), we head home - west of town. It is BUMPER TO BUMPER traffic eastbound! Lots and lots of cars, a few more car haulers and such....even one guy hauling a pontoon boat!

So my assessment is that folks on the coast (Sarasota and Bradenton west of us) are EVACUATING!

I suspect with the recent impacts from Helene and Ian experiences, there will a be a lot of people evacuating very soon.

Yep. By 3:30, the traffic was insane.

I'm in, I'm staying in and I'm glad I don't have to go out again. All preps done, gennies up and running, gas cans full and food stocked.

Tomorrow I will make ice, wash all the dirty laundry - make sure all towels are clean and dry - in case we need them to sop up water...can't think of anything else I need to do to get ready.

Just get here and then get the H--- OUT, Milton!

[shiftenter]

There will be some ionospheric heating taking place in the next 24 hrs as a solar storm from a CME passes earth.
This may cause Milton to RI.
Then he will likely undergo an EWRC within 24hrs after that.
I can see Milton transforming into a massively large cane before making landfall.
I can't emphasize enough that he will be over a good portion of the Loop Current.

Do you have a source for that? Not sure how a CME would have any impact on a TS / hurricane. Agree on the ocean heat content, though.

[Travorum]

2.5 hours ago, you can see the convective blowup originates from the SW corner of the center as visible imagery suggested.

[GCANE]

There will be some ionospheric heating taking place in the next 24 hrs as a solar storm from a CME passes earth.
This may cause Milton to RI.
Then he will likely undergo an EWRC within 24hrs after that.
I can see Milton transforming into a massively large cane before making landfall.
I can't emphasize enough that he will be over a good portion of the Loop Current.

Do you have a source for that? Not sure how a CME would have any impact on a TS / hurricane. Agree on the ocean heat content, though.

As of this update the CME associated with the X9 solar flare on Thursday has yet to be detected. At this point it is now running a little late, however a passage is still expected at any point. A geomagntic storm watch remains in effect. Stay tuned for the latest updates.

https://solarham.com/


Ionospheric heating allows the atmosphere below it to expand vertically.
This allows any stacked vort to expand vertically with it.
Conservation of angular momentum dictates that the vort will spin faster.

[cycloneye]

A few miles could make a big difference in terms of storm surge for Tampa Bay.


 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1842696387307159595

[GCANE]

Radar soundings showing a warm core at 150mb and very deep cold pool from surface to 500mb.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[StPeteMike]

Anyone in a surge zone in that cone especially Pasco and south from there needs to evacuate!

After the damage that Helene just caused, I just don't get why anyone would even condider not leaving. It just blows my mind. If Galveston would look like it was taking a direct hit, I'd be leaving for points west in a heartbeat especially given the limited roads out of south Florida.

I would definitely wait until tomorrow before contemplating for TB region. But yes, the amount of deaths in Pinellas from storm surge from a storm a hundred miles away…. I hope people take this (if ends up going north Clearwater) as serious as possible.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1842692419151618338

[jhpigott]

Wow, just saw this on the latest GFS.
700mb vort is huge, takes up the whole GOM on approach to landfall.
Never seen anything like it before.

Me either..quite impressive if the GFS is right.

I assume this means a large wind field?

[eastcoastFL]

Hey wxman57....talk us off the ledge

I do think it'll move inland to your south, but it could be close. Don't get off the ledge just yet.

Could you tell us what we might expect on the treasure Coast just north of Jupiter/WPB

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.imgur.com/yv5e1Hw.png

57 hours