ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

I thought the track going just north of Tampa would be worse for Tampa than just south?

[Beef Stew]

Obviously there’s other more notable things in this update, but interesting to see how quickly Milton is forecast to become extratropical after passing through Florida.

[xironman]

I see a partially exposed center

Maybe ingesting some of the dry air that every storm has dealt with in the Gulf this year.

Nice tower blowing up over it now though.

Yeah, I remember how the dry air killed Helene

[sponger]

This track is coming North, perhaps all the way back to Steinhatchee over the next couple of days. Would be better for Tampa and worse for Jacksonville. All hell is going to break loose Monday regardless. I will get gas today in case a certain country decides it's time to take out a major supplier Sunday night.

Not seeing much evidence for it veering that far north at this time; but they are in the cone I suppose.

I hope it makes it that far. Regardless, Tampa is in big big trouble. It's now only a question of how much. I think about a large Cat four just North of Tampa Bay. That would be horrific.

[jasons2k]

Anyone in a surge zone in that cone especially Pasco and south from there needs to evacuate!

[Teban54]

There have been too many recent storms where the NHC forecasted a MH within the first few advisories, but Milton has to be the one with the shortest notice in advance. Just 48 hours ago, the consensus from virtually everyone was a frontal low.

[Teban54]

I see a partially exposed center

Maybe ingesting some of the dry air that every storm has dealt with in the Gulf this year.

Nice tower blowing up over it now though.

Yeah, I remember how the dry air killed Helene

Or Kirk, for that matter.

[sponger]

This track is coming North, perhaps all the way back to Steinhatchee over the next couple of days. Would be better for Tampa and worse for Jacksonville. All hell is going to break loose Monday regardless. I will get gas today in case a certain country decides it's time to take out a major supplier Sunday night.

Not seeing much evidence for it veering that far north at this time; but they are in the cone I suppose.

I hope it makes it that far. Regardless, Tampa is in big big trouble. It's now only a question of how much. I think about a large Cat four just North of Tampa Bay. That would be horrific.

At least the Graf model gives some hope. Otherwise, only shear or dry air will help us.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=124401&p=3098310#p3098310

[psyclone]

Just visited my Publix in north Pinellas. It's slightly busier than normal for a Saturday afternoon but not bad. No evidence of much concern...bottled water and any non perishables are in plentiful supply

[Kazmit]

I see a partially exposed center

Maybe ingesting some of the dry air that every storm has dealt with in the Gulf this year.

Nice tower blowing up over it now though.

Yeah, I remember how the dry air killed Helene

Until it didn't.

[sponger]

There have been too many recent storms where the NHC forecasted a MH within the first few advisories, but Milton has to be the one with the shortest notice in advance. Just 48 hours ago, the consensus from virtually everyone was a frontal low.

Truly a crazy weird year.

[cycloneye]

There have been too many recent storms where the NHC forecasted a MH within the first few advisories, but Milton has to be the one with the shortest notice in advance. Just 48 hours ago, the consensus from virtually everyone was a frontal low.

Even recon has been pushing back the first mission since wednesday when it was slated for the NW Caribbean. All has been so fast with this.

[TomballEd]

I thought the track going just north of Tampa would be worse for Tampa than just south?

All else equal, the center of a storm moving E or NE going N of Tampa puts onshore flow against the coast. The SW winds would tend to push water into Tampa Bay. A storm S of Tampa has winds offshore. Bad either way, but worse if the center goes N.

4 days out, fine tuning which side of Tampa (if it is even near Tampa) is hard to pin down.

[psyclone]

That 5 pm track would take those fresh surge records for Tampa Bay set during Helene and multiply them X 2.2.

[Hurrilurker]

It's a little hard to be terrified of Tropical Storm "Milton", but this is looking pretty serious, hope Western Florida residents are paying attention because there isn't much time to prepare. Some residents of those areas, like Cedar Key, are still picking up the pieces from Helene's storm surge.

[johngaltfla]

Anyone in a surge zone in that cone especially Pasco and south from there needs to evacuate!

Amen. Barrier islands are already in bad shape so a storm with a clean path and time to build surge up once it intensifies into a two as forecast will produce catastrophic surge, especially into Charlotte Harbor, Sarasota Bay, Anna Marie, and of course Tampa Bay.

Please people, the surge warnings are there for a reason; get the hell out of there.

[Spacecoast]

There have been too many recent storms where the NHC forecasted a MH within the first few advisories, but Milton has to be the one with the shortest notice in advance. Just 48 hours ago, the consensus from virtually everyone was a frontal low.

Even recon has been pushing back the first mission since wednesday when it was slated for the NW Caribbean. All has been so fast with this.

It a record,.. or tied the record


*courtesy Tomer Burg

[Michele B]

Before you ask if I’m crazy hear me out. It seems the stronger the storm is the more north it will go , so I hope the storm is as strong as can be because if we end up with a strong category three or weak to mid category four, Tampa is screwed and we might end up with a worse disaster than Katrina in cost and possibly even Jeanne in death toll. I know that’s an extreme view, but I just have a really bad feeling about this and I don’t see it coming in as a weak storm

I don’t want anyone getting hurt, but a Tampa landfall would be the worst case scenario and I don’t think we as a state or a country could handle that right now.

I understand your point, but I don't think anyone wants this storm to go north.

There's too much devastation there from Helene already.

The problem is, it's pretty much OUT of our hands! Hurricanes go wherever the steering currents take them. It seems like the most we can do is try to figure it out and make a best guess.

[psyclone]

Tampa's risk of hurricane force winds is already 20%. It never left single digits during any of the forecast cycles for Helene...since we were never in the hot zone for that one...

[wxman57]

Well, I knew trouble was brewing when that front across the central Gulf began moving out to the north last evening. Woke up at 4am and began typing up an advisory on the disturbance. My initial thought was down toward Ft. Myers on Wed. Consensus, GFS and hurricane models are farther north, closer to Tampa. As Levi pointed out in his video, wind shear may increase significantly 6-12 hours prior to landfall. We could see a situation similar to Debby, Francine, and Helene in that sustained wind inland will be lower but gusts may be double the sustained wind. Maybe sustained 55-65 mph inland and gusts over 100. Something like that. NHC decided to destroy Tampa in their last advisory. FYI, such a storm would put 12-18 ft of water into Tampa Bay. Not good. I'm still thinking south of Tampa, maybe Sarasota, possibly still as far south as Ft. Myers. So much for my weekend and comp days...