ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
249 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A very serious situation is beginning to develop for West Central
and Southwest Florida. A deep moisture axis is overspreading the
region ahead of a sinking frontal boundary. When combined with
moisture and instability, this means scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the region over the next few days, with a
high potential for flooding to occur, necessitating a flood watch.
This is ahead of the main event for the week: Tropical Storm Milton.

Key Points:

* Milton is expected to quickly intensify while it moves E to NE
across the Gulf and will be at or near major hurricane strength as
it reaches the west of Coast of Florida beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday.
* There is an increasing risk for life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday
* Areas of heavy rainfall will impact the area starting tomorrow and
will continue through mid-week

After Milton passes, weather conditions will gradually improve. High
pressure settles in, with a slightly cooler and drier airmass
settling in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

We are in for a wet period starting this afternoon and continuing
through at least mid-week. We`re already seeing SCT/BKN clouds
around 4kft this afternoon and isolated SHRA over SW FL and will
continue through the period. Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will
be possible this afternoon/evening with highest chances over SW FL.
Will cover this with VCTS for now and tweak as needed based on radar
trends. Moderate rain chances persist through much of tomorrow, so
will hold SHRA starting at 08Z and continuing through the day on
Sunday. Easterly winds around 5-10 knots expected through Sunday
morning, then increasing to around 8-12 knots with gusts near 18
knots possible late morning and into the afternoon.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Easterly winds continue through the weekend, with typical evening
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain chances increase
tomorrow and into early next week as an axis of moisture spreads
across the region. Marine conditions will deteriorate through the
week as Tropical Storm Milton strengthens into a hurricane. Life-
threatening marine conditions are possible by the middle of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Ample moisture will preclude any fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A very wet pattern is settling across the region through mid-week as
first a deep moisture axis overspreads the region, and then
eventually Milton makes its way across the Gulf to the West Coast of
Florida, intensifying into a hurricane. Heavy rainfall is a
significant concern, with the potential for extensive, widespread
flooding that will be compounded by ongoing cleanup efforts from
Helene. A Flood Watch is now in effect from tomorrow (Sunday)
morning until Thursday morning.

[Recurve]

Oh boy, is all I can say. Can only hope this spares areas already hit hard and suffering.
Thinking about whether to get plywood for some boarding up. Really do not want to contemplate a direct hit from a major. No fear of surge here, but don't know if I want to ride out cat 3 winds.

[psyclone]

For a location that very rarely takes a direct impact by a hurricane, it’s amazing how many times Tampa Bay is a direct target in model runs and NHC tracks… Hopefully that trend continues…

It's amazing how many times we find a way to wiggle out. Hurricane Houdini. And we have escape hatches. The Bay's best chance to escape is if the track ticks south and keeps the core to our south with lower winds and offshore wind (think reverse surge like Irma or Ian)...unfortunately such a scenario would wreck SW FL. There's no good solution for the west coast if this storm gets strong...as it is packed with population and high $$$ property...

[skillz305]

My prediction is landfall south of Tampa.

[BobHarlem]

For a location that very rarely takes a direct impact by a hurricane, it’s amazing how many times Tampa Bay is a direct target in model runs and NHC tracks… Hopefully that trend continues…

It's amazing how many times we find a way to wiggle out. Hurricane Houdini. And we have escape hatches. The Bay's best chance to escape is if the track ticks south and keeps the core to our south with lower winds and offshore wind (think reverse surge like Irma or Ian)...unfortunately such a scenario would wreck SW FL. There's no good solution for the west coast if this storm gets strong...as it is packed with population and high $$$ property...

Tampa's already been hit this year with surge way worse than any recent system with Helene going back to 1921, so I don't think Milton is out of the question either. Tampa's good luck streak is already broken.

[psyclone]

It does look like the heaviest rain is on the north side...so that's no picnic either...although at least the wind would be offshore

[PDKlikatino]

Tampa bros, I get the feeling this is going to be the big one... I'm astounded at how fast this one became a tropical storm and it's got the same rocket fuel that powered Helene just a few weeks back. She passed far offshore and the effects in Pinellas were pretty bad, I don't want to imagine what's going to happen when a similar storm doesn't miss.

[drewschmaltz]

Well, we just had a lesson in "size matters" when it comes to storm surge. What are we looking at with Milton in terms of % of size vs Helene?

[USTropics]

The same loop current eddy that broke off from the Gulf Stream a few months ago (where we saw Helene explode over) will be in play here for Milton as well:

[HurricaneBelle]

My travel wizard son is booking hotels in the panhandle (if it turns out they're under the gun that's great for us and we cancel) so I'm ready to escape if the models and the forecasts don't back down over the next 24-48. Really not looking forward to packing my car with all my possessions I can't risk losing as I did two years ago with Ian but you do what you have to do.

[HurricaneBelle]

My travel wizard son is booking hotels in the panhandle (if it turns out they're under the gun that's great for us and we cancel) so I'm ready to escape if the models and the forecasts don't back down over the next 24-48. Really not looking forward to packing my car with all my possessions I can't risk losing as I did two years ago with Ian but you do what you have to do.

Look for hotels in South Florida we are pretty much in the clear.

I'd rather go where it's going to be much cooler.

Meanwhile you never want to see these words leading off your local NWS's area forecast discussion:

A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOR WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/2410051849.fxus62.html

[drewschmaltz]

I'm in Orlando - and I have a message for others in the CFL area. If the current "worst case" models come to fruition, please consider that the last eye-wall we got was Charley. Remember what that was like? A lot of damaged roofs, a ton of down trees, power out for week+. Nothing like the storm surge or flooding from Helene. HOWEVER... maybe someone here that has a good resource can fact check me on this... Nothing stronger than a category 1 has ever gone through Orlando. Charlie was a cat 1 by the time it reached this far inland.

So, back to the worst case scenario for Milton... It's unlikely, yet possible, this is a good bit worse than Charlie. We've had a lot of false alarms recently. In fact, going back a to 2005 I'd say "hurricane days" have been some of the nicer days lol.

[StormPyrate]

My travel wizard son is booking hotels in the panhandle (if it turns out they're under the gun that's great for us and we cancel) so I'm ready to escape if the models and the forecasts don't back down over the next 24-48. Really not looking forward to packing my car with all my possessions I can't risk losing as I did two years ago with Ian but you do what you have to do.

Look for hotels in South Florida we are pretty much in the clear.

the problem for south if you live in Pinelles is getting back, all bridges back in

[CrazyC83]

My travel wizard son is booking hotels in the panhandle (if it turns out they're under the gun that's great for us and we cancel) so I'm ready to escape if the models and the forecasts don't back down over the next 24-48. Really not looking forward to packing my car with all my possessions I can't risk losing as I did two years ago with Ian but you do what you have to do.

Look for hotels in South Florida we are pretty much in the clear.

I'd rather go where it's going to be much cooler.

Meanwhile you never want to see these words leading off your local NWS's area forecast discussion:

A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOR WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/2410051849.fxus62.html

Problem is, until you get past Tallahassee, you deal with areas still recovering (or struggling!) from Helene.

[underthwx]

Look for hotels in South Florida we are pretty much in the clear.

I'd rather go where it's going to be much cooler.

Meanwhile you never want to see these words leading off your local NWS's area forecast discussion:

A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOR WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/2410051849.fxus62.html

Problem is, until you get past Tallahassee, you deal with areas still recovering (or struggling!) from Helene.

That's a good point....im guessing that the hotels in and around stricken areas are full?.....so points further west perhaps may be a good option....but remaining in the warning cone area is a huge gamble...and I feel yall totaljy...its a tiring stressful event to be displaced by nature...I have done it time and again...but its a necessary evil.....

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Sanibel]

Don't the worst ones always come from the most unexpected corner...

Hooper: That shark's got to be 20 feet!...

Quint: 25...3 tons of her...

[USTropics]

I'd rather go where it's going to be much cooler.

Meanwhile you never want to see these words leading off your local NWS's area forecast discussion:



https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/2410051849.fxus62.html

Problem is, until you get past Tallahassee, you deal with areas still recovering (or struggling!) from Helene.

That's a good point....im guessing that the hotels in and around stricken areas are full?.....so points further west perhaps may be a good option....but remaining in the warning cone area is a huge gamble...and I feel yall totaljy...its a tiring stressful event to be displaced by nature...I have done it time and again...but its a necessary evil.....

Mainly avoid Taylor county, it still looks like a war zone there. I10 is clear though, and Tallahassee (and even most of Jefferson/Wakulla county) are all back to normal. Tallahassee or Panama City Beach area (if you're fine with driving 2 more hours) would be my recommendation with a ton of hotel options.

[TallyTracker]

Problem is, until you get past Tallahassee, you deal with areas still recovering (or struggling!) from Helene.

That's a good point....im guessing that the hotels in and around stricken areas are full?.....so points further west perhaps may be a good option....but remaining in the warning cone area is a huge gamble...and I feel yall totaljy...its a tiring stressful event to be displaced by nature...I have done it time and again...but its a necessary evil.....

Mainly avoid Taylor county, it still looks like a war zone there. I10 is clear though, and Tallahassee (and even most of Jefferson/Wakulla county) are all back to normal. Tallahassee or Panama City Beach area (if you're fine with driving 2 more hours) would be my recommendation with a ton of hotel options.

I can vouch for the Tallahassee area. We only got grazed here and everything is pretty much back to normal aside from some tree removal work. Everything further west is good as well. Jefferson County east to Live Oak got slammed so I’m not sure about there.

[beachnut]

Don't the worst ones always come from the most unexpected corner...

Hooper: That shark's got to be 20 feet!...

Quint: 25...3 tons of her...

Great humor Sanibel! Are we really going to do this again?!