ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

What happened to all those people that say Tampa bay will never get a hurricane.

Uh, it's not written in stone, yet.

I'm nervous because all of the storms - of late - that were SUPPOSED to go to Tampa end up coming SOUTH of there, and right into our neck of the woods!

I'm not taking my eyes off this one.

[kevin]

11am cone, cue 10 additional forum pages in 3, 2, 1...

[Ubuntwo]

[chris_fit]

Bruh.

[jhpigott]

NHC track close to GFS. ICON, CMC and Euro all further south towards Naples/Ft Myers.

[underthwx]

Track predictions for 11am first track?

I'll go with 90mph into Englewood.

The NHC first advisory will be interesting to say the least....I would like to be a fly on the wall at the NHC right now...im sure they are busy as the public awaits the first information on 92L...personally....I have little doubt that Florida will be receiving epic amounts of rainfall...over several days...as the Tampa forecast discussion mentions...will this soon to be cyclone be tracking towards Florida slowly?.....my sister lives in Tampa...so I am gonna tell her to pay attention to this...and not be oblivious to what's coming.....

[Michele B]

Call it wish cashing, i still feel like GFS has been too locked into the central/west coast. euro has not deviated much from suggesting ft Myers south.

I would agree, as long as the jet stream stays so strong across the northern Gulf.

If that were to back away, I'd be more inclined to think it would drift somewhat northerly. Maybe back toward the Big Bend, which - Lord knows - DOES NOT need this.

[ronjon]

Landfall south of Tampa Bay near Bradenton at 110 mph per NHC. Wednesday morning as of now. Things will change.

[psyclone]

That's a hella zesty first guess. Tropical shart watch for west central & southwest FL. I'm gonna hold out for a better deal

[HurricaneBelle]

This is really turning into a nightmare. If any of these morning models verify, beyond the normal damage it would potentially cause there's the matter of this on the front page of today's Tampa Bay Times:

Hurricane Helene debris overwhelms Tampa Bay cities and haulers
There are several million cubic yards of storm debris in need of collection, according to a top Pinellas County official.

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2024 ... unty-dump/

All of that is shaping up to be projectiles should hurricane-force winds arrive here. There are several piles of it on my block.

Imagine being city managers right now and trying to figure out what the H*** to do! Nightmare, indeed.

Update: in the last half hour two trucks came to my block and picked up all the loose garbage and debris. So at least I've got that going for me.

[underthwx]

I just read the first advisory on TD14.....not a good situation at all for Florida.....we have seen this before with multiple cyclone strikes on the great state of Florida in a single season....yall start doing what you gotta do...I dunno what else to say...cept for leave if you are asked to.....

[FLpanhandle91]

Anna Maria, Bradenton Beach, Longboat/Siesta Key, as well as most of downtown Sarasota are incredibly suseptible to storm surge. Even a cat 2 would put most of these areas under many feet of water, let alone a major. Those areas are like Sanibel, but more densely populated.

[ronjon]

From 11 am NHC Discussion:

The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.

[aspen]

Bruh a 95 kt first advisory landfall intensity is a lot higher than I thought they’d go.

Still thinking/hoping it falls short of the aggressive GFS/HWRF runs.

[ROCK]

Not surprised how fast it developed. Was watching last night the persistent cold tops. So to me it was expected. Went from 40-50% yesterday to 90% over night to now….What does surprise me is the intensity models. Geezz…

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[N2FSU]

11:00am NHC track




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[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Anna Maria, Bradenton Beach, Longboat/Siesta Key, as well as most of downtown Sarasota are incredibly suseptible to storm surge. Even a cat 2 would put most of these areas under many feet of water, let alone a major. Those areas are like Sanibel, but more densely populated.

Hurricane strength and storm surge are only loosely correlated. Size, direction, and forward speed are bigger factors.

[Kazmit]

Woah. I haven’t checked in on this system in a couple days because I thought it was expected to be a frontal low or maybe a TS. Things have escalated quickly.

[GCANE]

FL needs to brace for impact.
It will be running over the main current of the Loop Current.
That is a given.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1842587794750767197