ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

NHC explicitly mentioning the H word now

[boca]

I’m surprised that they are warning the NW Bahamas with this storm when it most likely going to be a central Florida storm rather than South Florida looking that it will probably be stronger which showed the more northern tracks over Tampa area

[TomballEd]

I have more X followers than Andre Trotter. I don't have many followers. I try to follow the people on X with expertise. Not saying Trotter is wrong, I think there is a high ceiling on 92L


Mark Sudduth is concerned, however. Video later this morning.

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1842534161396994239

[Pipelines182]

The HMON and HWRF are both showing cat4/5 storms…. It’s going to be a long 5 days, isn’t it?

Even if Tampa avoids another one, there really isn’t any spot on the central west coast of Florida that isn’t densely populated.

[TomballEd]

In favor of the high ceiling, is the possibility 92L will be in the right entrance region of the jet over the SE USA which would cause divergence and provide outflow. Also favoring a high ceiling is that 92L may be close to a TC right now. Waiting on visible.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

At least on IR, 92L appears to be consolidating rapidly. We could be talking about a moderate/strong tropical storm by today. Tomorrow seems more likely though.

[eastcoastFL]

So the hurricane models are up and the HWRF has a 940 mb Cat 4/5 into Tampa Bay Area… This is gonna be a long week. All of the hurricane models are taking this down sub 950 right now…

[HurricaneBelle]

This is really turning into a nightmare. If any of these morning models verify, beyond the normal damage it would potentially cause there's the matter of this on the front page of today's Tampa Bay Times:

Hurricane Helene debris overwhelms Tampa Bay cities and haulers
There are several million cubic yards of storm debris in need of collection, according to a top Pinellas County official.

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2024 ... unty-dump/

All of that is shaping up to be projectiles should hurricane-force winds arrive here. There are several piles of it on my block.

[Tailgater33]

Anyone know when the first flight into 92L will be?

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone know when the first flight into 92L will be?

Tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Anyone know when the first flight into 92L will be?

Subject to last minute change, the first mission will be early sunday morning.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1#p3097711

[CronkPSU]

TOMORROW!?!? What the heck...evac warnings may need to go out less than 24 hours after that

[eastcoastFL]

TOMORROW!?!? What the heck...evac warnings may need to go out less than 24 hours after that

As cycloneye said it’s subject to change. But Currently it’s tomorrow.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT THU 03 OCTOBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-125

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.3N 95.1W FOR 05/1800Z.

[HurricaneBelle]

NWS Tampa Bay putting out the word:

 https://x.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1842545697964630118

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 30kt, 1007 mbs and identifies a low. Classification at 11 AM?

AL, 92, 2024100512, , BEST, 0, 219N, 952W, 30, 1007, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922024.dat

[AutoPenalti]

Interestingly enough SE Florida will once again likely be dodging an eye wall impact just to the north. Tampa being only 192 miles away doesn’t help considering forecasting landfall accuracy.

Tampa will need to prepare for sure, as early as now.

[Clearcloudz]

What happened to all those people that say Tampa bay will never get a hurricane.

[boca]

Interestingly enough SE Florida will once again likely be dodging an eye wall impact just to the north. Tampa being only 192 miles away doesn’t help considering forecasting landfall accuracy.

Tampa will need to prepare for sure, as early as now.

Last impact was Wima 19 years ago.

[psyclone]

What happened to all those people that say Tampa bay will never get a hurricane.

Well we average 10-20 major modelstorms per year. My gut says whatever this becomes ends up south...more toward southwest FL and Tampa bay ends up with a nice breezy offshore wind. But my gut isn't always right and the line between what I want and what is most likely does tend to blur when things get spicy. Nevertheless I'm not too worried...yet..

[TomballEd]

I believe NHC could request a resources permitting (if there is a plane and a crew standing by) mission today despite it not being on the POD. Based on the satellite presentation and the high res models, which could be overblown, or could be in the ballpark, I think getting a plane in there today would be a good thing.