ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2024100500, , BEST, 0, 220N, 955W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, al712024 to al922024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922024.dat

[Tailgater33]

This looks like it will become a named system pretty quick, this area spins them up
.

[chaser1]

Boom, there it is (not too sure on the 22.0 though LOL?)

[skillz305]

Well... welcome my Florida folks. Be on the look out.

[Weatherboy1]

Yeah that ball of convection has looked real interesting for a few hours…and could be spinning up into something. Question is - what exactly? And how strong will it get?

[tropicwatch]

Pressures in the area near the convection are running 1010 - 1012mb and Buoy 42055 east of the convection is reporting 1010.7mb

[grapealcoholic]

92L might put on a show tonight

[Nimbus]

Should start getting some hurricane model runs soon.
Need to have landfall predictions by Monday.

[StPeteMike]

The waters under 92L are the warmest in the Gulf of Mexico. If a storm was looking for an area to really ramp up, this storm has found the location.

[aspen]

Oh great, another one. I was hoping this disturbance would fizzle out when models started down trending a few days ago.

On the bright side, it is unlikely to have anywhere close to the same scale of impacts as Helene.

[Stormlover70]

The waters under 92L are the warmest in the Gulf of Mexico. If a storm was looking for an area to really ramp up, this storm has found the location.

warm water alone doesn't make a system.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh wow, I've been basically sleeping on this system with tracking Kirk and Leslie, but it's very interesting that its development chances skyrocketed. Seems to have decent convection right now. Low deep layer wind shear and very warm Gulf waters at the moment.

Hmm.....this system will be interesting to watch.

[zzzh]

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922024 10/05/24 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 46 53 58 60 63 66 66 67 67 67 66
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 46 53 58 47 39 42 42 39 35 39 38
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 40 35 38 41 39 38 42 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 9 10 9 13 10 9 7 7 5 12 11 19 22 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 2 0 5 0 2 3 2 3 6 0 0 5 9
SHEAR DIR 172 187 219 231 238 230 194 210 205 152 172 194 201 177 185 259 243
SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.0 31.0 31.2 31.3 31.1 31.0 31.0 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 167 167 168 169 170 172 172 172 172 172 172 171 166 160
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 7 8 6 9 6 8 7 10 9 9 8 7 5 4
700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 76 74 69 68 67 64 61 52 49 49 48 47 48 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 9 9 11 12 16 17 18 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 70 59 52 41 31 28 37 51 54 71 95 100 97 89 65 20 -11
200 MB DIV 51 49 40 34 23 8 40 18 25 22 0 -2 0 19 19 23 62
700-850 TADV 6 7 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 2 4 -1 -3 13 5
LAND (KM) 194 191 190 179 190 230 284 349 175 -70 30 119 57 21 -14 189 403
LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.1 22.6 21.8 21.1 20.4 20.2 20.7 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.7 95.9 96.0 95.9 95.5 94.8 93.8 92.1 89.8 87.1 84.5 82.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 2 5 7 10 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 45 48 50 50 52 52 49 41 36 20 63 109 92 78 72 59 47

The environment is surprisingly good.

[mantis83]

Looks to be encountering some easterly shear, should keep it in check for now

[REDHurricane]

Looks to be encountering some easterly shear, should keep it in check for now

Ehhhh not really:

[tropicwatch]

Looks to be encountering some easterly shear, should keep it in check for now

Ehhhh not really:

https://i.ibb.co/Y7pKKqj/92-L-SHHEHAR.gif

Already has a ventilation setup.

[TampaBayBee]

Florida Gulf Coast watching Wx after another long day of cleanup. Covered the flood debris mountain with tarps this afternoon. Received local alert that sandbags are available beginning 0700 tomorrow with heavy rains predicted. Not much left to lose around here except time for cleanup and recovery from Helene.

[chaser1]

Florida Gulf Coast watching Wx after another long day of cleanup. Covered the flood debris mountain with tarps this afternoon. Received local alert that sandbags are available beginning 0700 tomorrow with heavy rains predicted. Not much left to lose around here except time for cleanup and recovery from Helene.

That just sucks. I'm sorry you're dealing with that.

[Buck]

I had an Uncle Milton, he was a nice guy…

[Soluna16]

Seeing these intensities slowly creep up living in central florida