Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[Nuno]

For those saying it would be hard to get a storm in South FL based on the angle of approach, I remind you that in 2005 Wilma hit South FL from the Yucatan Peninsula.

This is likely to cut east north of the Yucatan, they're not going to be in the same position.

[drezee]

The Euro is clearly hinting that there is a sweet spot in relation to that jet streak. Too many runs below 960mb.

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842246105104347514

[chaser1]

Just renewed my flood insurance policy even though I am not in a flood zone. Just can't take the chance here in southwest Broward County.

Good move by you! I used to live in Pembroke Shores on a large lake and I wouldn't have lived there without Flood insurance!

My first home was in Pembroke Shores! It was the townhomes when you first drive into the complex on the right. I loved living there it just became too small for my household. Now I am in Silver Lakes.

Yep, very nice homes further west in the Silver Lakes area. It's been at least 8 years since moving from there. Isn't Chappel Trails even further west than you? I thought that I recalled them having some minor flooding issues years back? Anyway, better safe than sorry (especially since it looks like a pile of rain may be heading our way).

[Blown Away]

The historical angle.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1842290008092184649

I've always been big on historical precedence, but Cat 5 Michael, Cat 3 Idelia, and Cat 4 Helene landfalls on Panhandle/Big Bend, go back the same @170 years and there are no records of high end MH direct landfalls in that region... So these days anything seems possible like a hurricane off the TX/MX coast zipping ENE over SFL, why not?

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z Icon has 986mb into Charlotte Harbor at 18Z Wed. So Icon is also trending a little stronger over the last several runs; and the timing is very similar to the last run

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/woJ4mph.png

ICON has been the most consistent with this disturbance however the system appears more subtropical on it's 12Z model run showing a 990 mb on approach to SW Florida. Look how broad the wind gradient is, especially on its West side. Not much in terms of stronger winds near the core are indicated.

[Steve]

https://i.imgur.com/PhoRMDU.jpeg

CMC isn’t that though those may just be arrows pointing in a direction.

Sure, at the end its was going ENE if you extrapolate that seems ok.

I agree with that but it’s presented like a spaghetti model plot but with directional arrows. Knowing CMC hasn’t hit FL by 10 days kind of makes it look like a hype graphic. I’m not making a judgment call on that being good or bad in this instance.

[chaser1]

18Z Icon has 986mb into Charlotte Harbor on 18Z Wed

Hmmm, perhaps a little like a (very) poor man's Hurricane Charley LOL.

[Emmett_Brown]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1842313958075883880

[Emmett_Brown]

 https://x.com/HurricanesJames/status/1842313492516208975

[tolakram]

3 model runs, time for an invest

Does it seem they are 12-24 hours too slow on the invests? We currently have multiple "reliable" models with a hurricane into Florida.

I don't think so, the hurricane models have been less than useful early on. I suspect as soon as it looks like an LLC is very close we'll get an invest. Is that tonight or tomorrow?

[TomballEd]

The good news is the rain should generally stay S of the Helene disaster areas. I have no idea what strength this would be, but 5 hurricane landfalls on the US Gulf coast in one season would be impressive.

[Nuno]

The good news is the rain should generally stay S of the Helene disaster areas. I have no idea what strength this would be, but 5 hurricane landfalls on the US Gulf coast in one season would be impressive.

Not the "bust" season people were talking about.

Been a lot of consistency with the modeling in track the last couple days. I'd pay attention to the ICON

[chaser1]

My guess is that it's going to need about 24 hr's to begin looking like there's any semblance of something consolidating. It may be not until then when its finally labeled as an invest?

[HurricaneBelle]

The good news is the rain should generally stay S of the Helene disaster areas. I have no idea what strength this would be, but 5 hurricane landfalls on the US Gulf coast in one season would be impressive.

Except for the disaster area of the Pinellas County beaches.

[johngaltfla]

Local mets projecting over 5" of rain before the storm gets near us.

A direct hit or near hit in Sarasota or Manatee with over 10" of rain will be a disaster.

[chaser1]

The good news is the rain should generally stay S of the Helene disaster areas. I have no idea what strength this would be, but 5 hurricane landfalls on the US Gulf coast in one season would be impressive.

5 Hurricane landfalls would be something although I'm far from convinced this particular system will reach hurricane intensity. I'm thinking the Over/Under on this one might be a 65 mph T.S.?
If so, my bet is on the "Under"!

[toad strangler]

18z GFS much further S than what we’ve seen on runs today and weaker.

[psyclone]

18z GFS much further S than what we’ve seen on runs today and weaker.

That's a reasonable solution too

[fci]

Local mets projecting over 5" of rain before the storm gets near us.

A direct hit or near hit in Sarasota or Manatee with over 10" of rain will be a disaster.

Is flooding from rain a big issue in your area or is it surge that’s the issue?
I’m not challenging you here. I live in Palm Beach County and while 10” of rain would cause localized flooding here, it doesn’t take rivers/lakes/bodies over water over their banks.
Is it different on the west coast where rain causes a disaster or is it surge?