Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[chris_fit]

FL is not going to like the 12z EPS either.... lots of hurricanes through 120 hours...Several what looks like majors.

[jlauderdal]

Very strong signal on the 12z EPS.

The op came in strong; this is trending the wrong direction; maybe the HAFS suite was on to something yesterday with intensity. This is the gyre in action, textbook.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Models seem to have no idea what this is going to be, only on vaguely where its going, somewhere with Tampa in the middle of the cone and Fort myers to Cedar Key at the edges

I am going to really start keeping an eye on this. I would hope the NHC throws an Invest up

I saw a model that showed 33" of Rain next week and then ive seen a Category 4.


tampa bro's....is it finally our time?

I remember a couple GFS runs before Ian gave me 4 feet of rain and I ended up with less than 1". We have a hardcore modelstorm climo here... Tampa bros are either cleaning up from the last mess or blissfully unconcerned at present..

Yikes. But still you take notice. I dont think "Tampa" would exist after 33" of Rain in 2 days. I am almost sure the entire city would be under water...Considering that only 4 or 5 inches half the roads become impassible

[DESTRUCTION5]

FL is not going to like the 12z EPS either.... lots of hurricanes through 120 hours...Several what looks like majors.



https://i.imgur.com/NwIEyi9.png

Yikes....

[Nuno]

Trend has been away from SFL and more towards CFL today. It could swing back and forth but it seems pretty difficult for a hurricane to hit so far south at this angle of approach. Interesting next few days.

I'd be worried between FMB and Sarasota

[psyclone]

Holy smokes on those Euro ensembles. Hard pass. Escalation watch.

[beachnut]

I'm less concerned about the wind and rain as I am about the surge. Living on the water is great until times like this. I stayed up until 3am the night of Helene watching meteorologist Matt Devitt on WINK as he talked us through the surge event here which also coincided with high tide. I bit my nails watching my dock disappear until only the top 18" of the pilings were visible.The further south this potential storm goes is fine with me!

[SFLcane]

Trend has been away from SFL and more towards CFL today. It could swing back and forth but it seems pretty difficult for a hurricane to hit so far south at this angle of approach. Interesting next few days.

I'd be worried between FMB and Sarasota

Trend? there is not even a developed low on the map yet. Actual steering flow would surely favor something ejecting ENE across florida. I certainly do not see this getting as far north as tampa.

[AutoPenalti]

Hard to get a Metro Dade/Broward/Palm Beach hit here based on the Euro run... could be another Big Bend solution if the models begin to trend North. Time will tell. Pretty much of all Florida needs to watch this.

[SFLcane]

Holy smokes on those Euro ensembles. Hard pass. Escalation watch.

Probably overcooked... something in the middle looks more likely.

[caneman]

Trend has been away from SFL and more towards CFL today. It could swing back and forth but it seems pretty difficult for a hurricane to hit so far south at this angle of approach. Interesting next few days.

I'd be worried between FMB and Sarasota

Trend? there is not even a developed low on the map yet. Actual steering flow would surely favor something ejecting ENE across florida. I certainly do not see this getting as far north as tampa.

GFS would disagree with you.

[caneman]

Holy smokes on those Euro ensembles. Hard pass. Escalation watch.

Probably overcooked... something in the middle looks more likely.

Overcooked? It's the EURO. I think also the HAFS so wouldn't say overcooked. We still need to wait for an invest though

[SFLcane]

Holy smokes on those Euro ensembles. Hard pass. Escalation watch.

Probably overcooked... something in the middle looks more likely.

Overcooked? It's the EURO. I wouldn't say that. We still need to wait for an invest.

eps yup can surely be overcooked lets see what the weekend brings no escape hatch for this one.

[Michele B]

Trend has been away from SFL and more towards CFL today. It could swing back and forth but it seems pretty difficult for a hurricane to hit so far south at this angle of approach. Interesting next few days.

I'd be worried between FMB and Sarasota

I thought it was because there is a strong front across the I-10 which is supposed to push it further south? Not allowing northerly movement?

[jlauderdal]

Hard to get a Metro Dade/Broward/Palm Beach hit here based on the Euro run... could be another Big Bend solution if the models begin to trend North. Time will tell. Pretty much of all Florida needs to watch this.

I dont see how anything gets north of the stalled front over central florida, its going to be locked down and really be the focus as the flow drives everything along and south of it, there is a real model agreement on that.

[caneman]

Probably overcooked... something in the middle looks more likely.

Overcooked? It's the EURO. I wouldn't say that. We still need to wait for an invest.

eps yup can surely be overcooked lets see what the weekend brings no escape hatch for this one.

Nobody said escape hatch but contrary to what you've been saying, if something does develop, Tampa is certainly within sight as well and certainly St. Pete and Clearwater but we'll see.

[Steve]

Do any current model runs show this thing crossing Florida and then turning north toward the mid-Atlantic? Or do they show it heading OTS? I'm assuming the latter.

GFS = no (some energy sticks around the Bahamas until it's picked up by a trough). Mid Atlantic is under high pressure until a coldfront moves through there and another high takes over. Some higher elevation snows with that front.

CMC = no because it takes 10 days to get to landfall other models have much earlier. It still hasn't hit FL by hour 240. Too slow.

ICON = no Heads E/ENE out to sea

I didn't look at the EC yet.

[SFLcane]

Not entirely sure it would be purely tropical as weathernerds ensembles show. Certainly regardless its something the westcoast of florida does not need. Models today have latched onto the leftovers from 11e well see if this afternoons trends hold over the weekend.

[Steve]

The 12Z Euro, Icon and GFS are all pretty close together at the moment, showing landfall on the FL W coast mid day Wednesday as a strong TS or Cat 1 'cane. All show a closed low over the BOC by Sunday morning. This runs look more tropical than hybrid for what it's worth.

And that landfall consensus is only 5 days out.
NHC odds to 50% that there will even be a TD forming anywhere in the gulf for the next 7.
Strange thing statistical odds.

And why the NHC percent rule is not working- folks wrongfully think they don’t need to worry about a 40-60% probable storm. Then they get hammered with a deluge of water.

That’s on them in my opinion.

[Cat5James]

Not liking the EPS. Watching closely from Manatee County