Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[chris_fit]

[ChrisH-UK]

Looking at what is happening vs what the models are doing, as you can see there is a broad rotation compared to yesterday its has shrunken down and is no longer elongated. Trying to determine what is going on under the clouds in the Bay of Campeche is proving to be chaotic there is a lot of movement happening. It's a shame Mexico's Veracruz radar is offline.

Also of note there's a bit of a swirl off the coast of southern Texas with a bit of cloud, you can even see it on Brownville radar, should bring some breeze weather down there.

[chris_fit]

Legit Hurricane going to slam W FL according to 12Z Euro

[SFLcane]

[chris_fit]

Landfall 12Z EURO - Sarasota as what looks like a Weakening, mid range Cat 1?

[psyclone]

The farther south this system goes the better chance it has...and it does seem to be trending south. It might be more of a south Florida situation with a growing possibility central Florida gets whiffed....which...to be fair...I am very much cheering for

[chris_fit]

Well this thread ( and the future invest one ) should perk up nicely...

[Emmett_Brown]

Landfall 12Z EURO - Sarasota as what looks like a Weakening, mid range Cat 1?

https://i.imgur.com/QnsSzHZ.png

And, the global models are usually conservative with strength. Yesterday, the HAFS models that were running for TD11 were coming in quite a bit stronger than the globals for this future GOM storm. Also, the last EPS ensemble showed stronger members on the north side of the swath, so it's hard to say for now whether N or S FL peninsula favors a stronger storm.

[chris_fit]

The farther south this system goes the better chance it has...and it does seem to be trending south. It might be more of a south Florida situation with a growing possibility central Florida gets whiffed....which...to be fair...I am very much cheering for

12z EURO is well north of the 00Z EURO.....

Here is the 00Z

[toad strangler]

Thats A LOT of real estate over very warm waters. Upper air better be hostile or there is going to be big problems IF this cranks up that far SW in the BOC

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12Z Euro, Icon and GFS are all pretty close together at the moment, showing landfall on the FL W coast mid day Wednesday as a strong TS or Cat 1 'cane. All show a closed low over the BOC by Sunday morning. This runs look more tropical than hybrid for what it's worth.

[blp]

[jlauderdal]

Well this thread ( and the future invest one ) should perk up nicely...

It will have very limited geography, although there are plenty of members in the strike zone, this will affect many of the same people as Helene but in different ways. Tampa is looking at another surge event, but the flooding is going to be the story, even if its a cat 2. There will be a stationary front sitting over Central Florida so all of that moisture coming in on the SW flow will pool in Central and South Florida and then support from the gulf and it gets real efficient at making rain. This setup doesnt need any tropical activity to produce big rains, we see it several times a year, well outside of hurricane season.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Models seem to have no idea what this is going to be, only on vaguely where its going, somewhere with Tampa in the middle of the cone and Fort myers to Cedar Key at the edges

I am going to really start keeping an eye on this. I would hope the NHC throws an Invest up

I saw a model that showed 33" of Rain next week and then ive seen a Category 4.


tampa bro's....is it finally our time?

[cycloneye]

Dr Levi Cowan's take.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1842270673131196459

[psyclone]

Models seem to have no idea what this is going to be, only on vaguely where its going, somewhere with Tampa in the middle of the cone and Fort myers to Cedar Key at the edges

I am going to really start keeping an eye on this. I would hope the NHC throws an Invest up

I saw a model that showed 33" of Rain next week and then ive seen a Category 4.


tampa bro's....is it finally our time?

I remember a couple GFS runs before Ian gave me 4 feet of rain and I ended up with less than 1". We have a hardcore modelstorm climo here... Tampa bros are either cleaning up from the last mess or blissfully unconcerned at present..

[Nimbus]

The 12Z Euro, Icon and GFS are all pretty close together at the moment, showing landfall on the FL W coast mid day Wednesday as a strong TS or Cat 1 'cane. All show a closed low over the BOC by Sunday morning. This runs look more tropical than hybrid for what it's worth.

And that landfall consensus is only 5 days out.
NHC odds to 50% that there will even be a TD forming anywhere in the gulf for the next 7.
Strange thing statistical odds.

[redingtonbeach]

The 12Z Euro, Icon and GFS are all pretty close together at the moment, showing landfall on the FL W coast mid day Wednesday as a strong TS or Cat 1 'cane. All show a closed low over the BOC by Sunday morning. This runs look more tropical than hybrid for what it's worth.

And that landfall consensus is only 5 days out.
NHC odds to 50% that there will even be a TD forming anywhere in the gulf for the next 7.
Strange thing statistical odds.

And why the NHC percent rule is not working- folks wrongfully think they don’t need to worry about a 40-60% probable storm. Then they get hammered with a deluge of water.

[Emmett_Brown]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1842274596176978359

[ColdMiser123]

Very strong signal on the 12z EPS.