00z ECENS/GEFS…
Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)
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Blown Away
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
00z ECENS/GEFS…
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
They could almost always have the GoM in orange throughout the whole hurricane season this year.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/30)
Steve wrote:Michele B wrote:
YIKES!!
This looks like coming close to Charley or Ian track.
Landfall or track?
Landfall coordinates
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Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022, Milton - 2024
Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/6qsYdLC3/IMG-0467.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/7Zc7GP3P/IMG-0468.jpg [/url]
00z ECENS/GEFS…
Good grief! This looks like they used real spaghetti for these spaghetti models!
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Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022, Milton - 2024
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otowntiger
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/30)
glad you got a laugh!Steve wrote:otowntiger wrote:skillz305 wrote:Now that the GFS shows development, I definitely have my eyes open.
I can just about guarantee that the very next run will be 100% different. I bet it will show no discernible vorticity.
I’m going to disagree. Models have called for a hook east system for a week. 00z’s will show some action. But I did laugh before posting so all good.
But as I predicted the very next gfs run just showing a blob.
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Weathertracker96
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
The GEFS is showing a slight uptick this morning it seems. Joe Bastardi posted the euro ensembles from 00z which seem active.
Something to watch moving forward. Can’t write this off for sure.
Something to watch moving forward. Can’t write this off for sure.
Last edited by Weathertracker96 on Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Weathertracker96
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
Can you repost the link? All I see is a question mark
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SFLcane
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
Weathertracker96 wrote:
Can you repost the link? All I see is a question mark
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cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
8 AM:
Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
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Weathertracker96
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
SFLcane wrote:Weathertracker96 wrote:
Can you repost the link? All I see is a question mark
https://i.imgur.com/yVElZsX.jpeg
Thanks for reposting. Wow. That would be something if that happened. Might have to look over hurricane kit this weekend.
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
00zEuro and 00z ICON both line up with timing weds "landfall" of a moderate TS in the Ft Meyers area. 06zGFS is still just calling for a washout all week.
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jlauderdal
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
Fox likes the Graf, it was too far east with Helene but did well with Beryl, add it to the list of models that needs to be considered. Grounds getting some pre-storm saturation this morning, pouring at my place with more coming in from the Atlantic.
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toad strangler
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
6z Euro sure looks like a TC in the making
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SFLcane
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
toad strangler wrote:6z Euro sure looks like a TC in the making
Well on its way 998mb..
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:6z Euro sure looks like a TC in the making
Well on its way 998mb..
https://i.imgur.com/qiy0Ebz.jpeg
Do you have a link to the site your on because it’s not yet on tropical titbits
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ThunderForce
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
How accurate is the GRAF model, generally speaking? It always bothered me that it seems to not be publicly available in some way outside of news stations showing solutions from it, unlike most other models.
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ThunderForce
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
boca wrote:SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:6z Euro sure looks like a TC in the making
Well on its way 998mb..
https://i.imgur.com/qiy0Ebz.jpeg
Do you have a link to the site your on because it’s not yet on tropical titbits
Seems to be from a website called weathermodels.com. Appears it requires a paid subscription to view the models there?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (0/40)
Here is the 06z Euro ENS.
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