2024 Global ACE: NH - 453.9 / NATL - 161.6 / EPAC - 82.0 / WPAC - 204.0 / NIO - 6.3

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Teban54
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 212.9 / NATL - 61.0 / EPAC - 54.0 / WPAC - 94.6 / NIO - 3.3

#41 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 28, 2024 6:51 pm

As of now, the Atlantic has 74.7 ACE units. This means 2024 can no longer be classified as a below-average season, as it's now above the NOAA cutoff of 73.0 for that category (33rd percentile of 1951-2020).

When compared to the "overblown" 1991-2020 climo (that already consists of mostly active years), 2024 is now above climo in H counts again, only 0.7 below in NS count, and only 0.3 below in MH count. I find NS count to be the most surprising, given heavy attention earlier on how NS count in particular was busting (it was the first thing that was notably falling behind seasonal forecasts). Even more so when you consider that NHC has been more conservative in naming shorties this year, compared to many other years in the climo period.

ACE, NS days and H days are still notably below the 1991-2020 climo. But 90L will likely fix that in a few days.

(Also, the Atlantic is the closest to 1991-2020 climo among all basins in almost every metric. This is despite some impressive storms in the Pacific, such as Gilma, John and Yagi. Both EPAC and WPAC are still at half of climo YTD with the exception of NS counts and possibly NS days.)

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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 233.9 / NATL - 74.7 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 96.0 / NIO - 3.3

#42 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 28, 2024 7:41 pm

But the big question is, will the ATL surpass the Pacific ACE total this year, like in 1998, 2005, 2010, 2017, and 2020?
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 210.2 / NATL - 61.0 / EPAC - 54.0 / WPAC - 91.9 / NIO - 3.3

#43 Postby Woofde » Sun Sep 29, 2024 2:06 am

dexterlabio wrote:None of the NHem basins have yet to reach 100 ACE units. The Atlantic was supposed to carry this year in terms of TC activity, as expected from a post-Niño/Niña year like 1998 and 2010. This is shaping up to be one of the least active tropical cyclone seasons globally.
Yeah, we only have 235 ACE as of yet. The lowest season ever was 1977 at 248 ACE. I don't foresee this year ending up below that, but the next lowest 1973 at 324 ACE seems very doable. The Atlantic may have a few tricks left up its sleve to gather a little more ACE, but its running out of time. It's gonna be all down to the WPac for the final gas.

Whatever is stunting the Atlantic is also having it's effect elsewhere.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 236.3 / NATL - 76.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 97.1 / NIO - 3.3

#44 Postby gib » Sun Sep 29, 2024 8:25 pm

As per CSU's website, the WPAC will reach 100 ACE today courtesy of Krathon, making it the first NH basin to reach 100 ACE this year. I wonder where that ranks historically in terms of latest date for any NH basin to reach 100 ACE?

I'm not sure where to find such data but, for whatever it's worth, I did eyeball a few seasons in the 1970s as well as years like 1999 and 2010 when the Pacific was way below normal. I think 1977 had a basin reach 100 ACE later than this year, though it's hard to be certain without running ACE counts. I'm sure other years would reveal themselves with the appropriate data.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 253.3 / NATL - 79.1 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 111.3 / NIO - 3.3

#45 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 02, 2024 7:48 am

North Atlantic cracked 80 ACE. Kirk will drive that up potentially to the upper 90's?? Or even past 100 if he majors out(as forecasted) for a good spell.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 260.6 / NATL - 81.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 116.4 / NIO - 3.3

#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 2:02 pm

This ACE model preducts 150 ACE for NATL by the end of the season. WeatherTiger is good on this.

 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1841552535561117858

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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 260.6 / NATL - 81.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 116.4 / NIO - 3.3

#47 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 02, 2024 3:30 pm

So Kirk and future-Leslie look like they could get us to 130-140 ACE by the time all is said and done? How far off is that from hyperactive?
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 260.6 / NATL - 81.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 116.4 / NIO - 3.3

#48 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 02, 2024 3:33 pm

Hammy wrote:So Kirk and future-Leslie look like they could get us to 130-140 ACE by the time all is said and done? How far off is that from hyperactive?


HA is 165
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 260.6 / NATL - 81.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 116.4 / NIO - 3.3

#49 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 02, 2024 5:05 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Hammy wrote:So Kirk and future-Leslie look like they could get us to 130-140 ACE by the time all is said and done? How far off is that from hyperactive?


HA is 165

Actually, the latest classification by NOAA (based on 1951-2020 climo) is "just" 159.6.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 260.6 / NATL - 81.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 116.4 / NIO - 3.3

#50 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 02, 2024 5:34 pm

Teban54 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Hammy wrote:So Kirk and future-Leslie look like they could get us to 130-140 ACE by the time all is said and done? How far off is that from hyperactive?


HA is 165

Actually, the latest classification by NOAA (based on 1951-2020 climo) is "just" 159.6.


Alrighty then, I stand corrected. Learn something new every day!
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 267.1 / NATL - 85.5 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#51 Postby kevin » Thu Oct 03, 2024 4:39 pm

The Atlantic's ACE is now up to 86.9. Using the NHC advisories for Kirk and Leslie it is forecast that this number will increase to 120 by October 8 (+120 hrs) due to 20 ACE from Kirk and 13 ACE from Leslie. Adding a rough and conservative estimate for another 10 ACE for Leslie after the +120 hrs period results in a total ACE of 130. This would already (even if just barely) make 2024 an above-average season and put us roughly 30 ACE from reaching hyperactivity. The latter still seems like a long shot, but either way 2024's late season performance is very impressive.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 280.5 / NATL - 98.9 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 05, 2024 12:15 pm

ACE at north atlantic is at 98.9 as of 15z and will reach and surpass 100 at 21z with Milton in the GOM. The hyperactive number is 165 so is still far but it may get close after the present cyclones are gone.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 285.4 / NATL - 103.8 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#53 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:39 pm

North Atlantic has cleared 100 ACE and will skyrocket for a spell with three ‘canes on the playing field.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 290.7 / NATL - 109.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:28 pm

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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 290.7 / NATL - 109.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#55 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:56 am

Kirk, Leslie and Milton making up for lost time.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 290.7 / NATL - 109.0 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#56 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:07 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:Kirk, Leslie and Milton making up for lost time.


ACE now at 109 and will blow past climatological normal (122.5) very soon.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 294.9 / NATL - 112.9 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#57 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:40 am

With Milton being the absolute powerhouse it is right now, while moving rather slowly, and with (assuming it does pan out) the GFS's idea of yet another significant hurricane in the WCAR later this month, that ACE score is going to go blastin' through the roof. At this point, I'm starting to think that until November 30, hyperactivity may be within range.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 297.7 / NATL - 115.6 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#58 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:23 am

Atlantic is currently surpassing the WPAC.

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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 302.6 / NATL - 120.5 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#59 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:37 am

It has surpassed 120.
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Re: 2024 Global ACE: NH - 302.6 / NATL - 120.5 / EPAC - 59.9 / WPAC - 118.4 / NIO - 3.3

#60 Postby Pasmorade » Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:43 am

cycloneye wrote:It has surpassed 120.

Truly a dud for the ages. :lol:
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