Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[Hammy]

This is all great news. So glad that models have backed off a bit. Florida doesn't need another hurricane. I think we've had enough landfalling hurricanes for the season.

Models backed off of what eventually became Helene too--I wouldn't treat this as set in stone by any stretch

[ConvergenceZone]

This is all great news. So glad that models have backed off a bit. Florida doesn't need another hurricane. I think we've had enough landfalling hurricanes for the season.

Models backed off of what eventually became Helene too--I wouldn't treat this as set in stone by any stretch

Oh, I'm not saying a weak storm won't come from this, don't get me wrong, but the setup does not seem quite as robust as Helene. It's difficult for the atmosphere to produce that near perfect setup 2 times in a row. I mean even with Helene WXMAN was calling for a cat 1 landfall when it was a week away. This is probably 6 to 7 days away from landfall already, and as he said, right now it just looks like a weak low. It doesn't mean things can't change, but hopefully it will be a nice rainmaker for an area that needs the rain. I know that we never say never, just going with the odds here based on what I'm seeing so far. I'll even post a big picture of a Crow if I'm wrong and we get something big out of this.

[Stormcenter]

I don’t recall the set-up being “robust” for
Helene until late.

This is all great news. So glad that models have backed off a bit. Florida doesn't need another hurricane. I think we've had enough landfalling hurricanes for the season.

Models backed off of what eventually became Helene too--I wouldn't treat this as set in stone by any stretch

Oh, I'm not saying a weak storm won't come from this, don't get me wrong, but the setup does not seem quite as robust as Helene. It's difficult for the atmosphere to produce that near perfect setup 2 times in a row. I mean even with Helene WXMAN was calling for a cat 1 landfall when it was a week away. This is probably 6 to 7 days away from landfall already, and as he said, right now it just looks like a weak low. It doesn't mean things can't change, but hopefully it will be a nice rainmaker for an area that needs the rain. I know that we never say never, just going with the odds here based on what I'm seeing so far. I'll even post a big picture of a Crow if I'm wrong and we get something big out of this.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has a much different track than previous runs. How this doesn't become stronger than just a TS though:

[toad strangler]

Major changes on the 18z GFS
That’s like a TS Faye redux

[Weathertracker96]

The GFS has a much different track than previous runs. How this doesn't become stronger than just a TS though:

https://i.postimg.cc/Pq8WjhM9/floop-gfs-2024092918-sfcwind-mslp-caribbean.gif

You think this could get stronger? It seems models might see unfavorable conditions.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don’t recall the set-up being “robust” for
Helene until late.

Models backed off of what eventually became Helene too--I wouldn't treat this as set in stone by any stretch

Oh, I'm not saying a weak storm won't come from this, don't get me wrong, but the setup does not seem quite as robust as Helene. It's difficult for the atmosphere to produce that near perfect setup 2 times in a row. I mean even with Helene WXMAN was calling for a cat 1 landfall when it was a week away. This is probably 6 to 7 days away from landfall already, and as he said, right now it just looks like a weak low. It doesn't mean things can't change, but hopefully it will be a nice rainmaker for an area that needs the rain. I know that we never say never, just going with the odds here based on what I'm seeing so far. I'll even post a big picture of a Crow if I'm wrong and we get something big out of this.

I doubt it will have the favorable conditions that Helene did which is why the models liked Helene so much. The shear in the gulf was pretty much non-existent. When Helene happened everything just seemed to line up perfectly. In fact they were talking about this on our tropical update recently. But again, time will tell if I'm wrong.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system
is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico
during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Teban54]

I don’t recall the set-up being “robust” for
Helene until late.

Oh, I'm not saying a weak storm won't come from this, don't get me wrong, but the setup does not seem quite as robust as Helene. It's difficult for the atmosphere to produce that near perfect setup 2 times in a row. I mean even with Helene WXMAN was calling for a cat 1 landfall when it was a week away. This is probably 6 to 7 days away from landfall already, and as he said, right now it just looks like a weak low. It doesn't mean things can't change, but hopefully it will be a nice rainmaker for an area that needs the rain. I know that we never say never, just going with the odds here based on what I'm seeing so far. I'll even post a big picture of a Crow if I'm wrong and we get something big out of this.

I doubt it will have the favorable conditions that Helene did which is why the models liked Helene so much. The shear in the gulf was pretty much non-existent. When Helene happened everything just seemed to line up perfectly. In fact they were talking about this on our tropical update recently. But again, time will tell if I'm wrong.

IIRC several ensemble runs for Helene, especially EPS, didn't start showing anything stronger than Cat 1 until about 3-5 days before genesis. Operational Euro didn't even develop it, which led people into thinking the best analog was Karen 2013, or a PTC that never becomes a TC before landfall.

[MetroMike]

I don’t recall the set-up being “robust” for
Helene until late.

I doubt it will have the favorable conditions that Helene did which is why the models liked Helene so much. The shear in the gulf was pretty much non-existent. When Helene happened everything just seemed to line up perfectly. In fact they were talking about this on our tropical update recently. But again, time will tell if I'm wrong.

IIRC several ensemble runs for Helene, especially EPS, didn't start showing anything stronger than Cat 1 until about 3-5 days before genesis. Operational Euro didn't even develop it, which led people into thinking the best analog was Karen 2013, or a PTC that never becomes a TC before landfall.

I don’t understand the correlation of Karen 2013 to this hurricane. Anymore insight?

[ConvergenceZone]

I don’t recall the set-up being “robust” for
Helene until late.

I doubt it will have the favorable conditions that Helene did which is why the models liked Helene so much. The shear in the gulf was pretty much non-existent. When Helene happened everything just seemed to line up perfectly. In fact they were talking about this on our tropical update recently. But again, time will tell if I'm wrong.

IIRC several ensemble runs for Helene, especially EPS, didn't start showing anything stronger than Cat 1 until about 3-5 days before genesis. Operational Euro didn't even develop it, which led people into thinking the best analog was Karen 2013, or a PTC that never becomes a TC before landfall.

Again, let us just wait and see. I'm sure we will know before too long.

[eastcoastFL]

I doubt it will have the favorable conditions that Helene did which is why the models liked Helene so much. The shear in the gulf was pretty much non-existent. When Helene happened everything just seemed to line up perfectly. In fact they were talking about this on our tropical update recently. But again, time will tell if I'm wrong.

IIRC several ensemble runs for Helene, especially EPS, didn't start showing anything stronger than Cat 1 until about 3-5 days before genesis. Operational Euro didn't even develop it, which led people into thinking the best analog was Karen 2013, or a PTC that never becomes a TC before landfall.

Again, let us just wait and see. I'm sure we will know before too long.

Shear is pretty rough right now in W. Carib but we all know how fast that can change. But it becomes less of a factor as any potential system approaches the gulf.

[psyclone]

There's a pretty good signal for heavy rain over Florida at a minimum. Anything beyond that fits into the unknowable category at this point. I'd disregard both the hype squad and the professional downcast squad at this point and wait for clarity...which will take awhile...pretty much just like every potential system.

[ConvergenceZone]

There's a pretty good signal for heavy rain over Florida at a minimum. Anything beyond that fits into the unknowable category at this point. I'd disregard both the hype squad and the professional downcast squad at this point and wait for clarity...which will take awhile...pretty much just like every potential system.

Yea I do think Florida can get some rains from this. Let's just hope the rains move in and out fairly quickly if they do come. They need a break.

[HurricaneBelle]

There's a pretty good signal for heavy rain over Florida at a minimum. Anything beyond that fits into the unknowable category at this point. I'd disregard both the hype squad and the professional downcast squad at this point and wait for clarity...which will take awhile...pretty much just like every potential system.

Speaking of rains, interestingly we didn't get very much from Helene in Pinellas (I recorded about 1.5 inch total at my house from Wed night-Fri AM) so for those of us not subject to surge Debby was worse (had some water intrusion myself). Of course Helene was catastrophic for those who were, and I'd rather have the water intrusion I dealt with than for all those people to suffer on the coast.

For this one I could do without the rain and the surge.

[Hammy]

I doubt it will have the favorable conditions that Helene did which is why the models liked Helene so much. The shear in the gulf was pretty much non-existent. When Helene happened everything just seemed to line up perfectly. In fact they were talking about this on our tropical update recently. But again, time will tell if I'm wrong.

IIRC several ensemble runs for Helene, especially EPS, didn't start showing anything stronger than Cat 1 until about 3-5 days before genesis. Operational Euro didn't even develop it, which led people into thinking the best analog was Karen 2013, or a PTC that never becomes a TC before landfall.

I don’t understand the correlation of Karen 2013 to this hurricane. Anymore insight?

Some posts were making comparisons between future-Helene and Karen, and seemingly treating the models that failed to develop it/briefly developed it as set in stone.

[wzrgirl1]

The Weather Channel was talking as if it was a definite this afternoon and said that" it would be headed to Florida." One of the newscasters said "we don't want to scare anyone but it looks as if there will be nothing preventing this from forming and doing a sharp curve toward Florida." They showed the American model which had it making landfall just south of Tampa. Just sayin.....

I thought it was a bit premature.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

There's a pretty good signal for heavy rain over Florida at a minimum. Anything beyond that fits into the unknowable category at this point. I'd disregard both the hype squad and the professional downcast squad at this point and wait for clarity...which will take awhile...pretty much just like every potential system.

Yea I do think Florida can get some rains from this. Let's just hope the rains move in and out fairly quickly if they do come. They need a break.

Would tend to disagree. Helene was a very poor rainmaker for us...the images, the water, the flooding you see from Florida. It was all Storm Surge. We probably need more rain if anything but I am not one to Wishcast here and just hope whatever it is it is over and done with quick because this guy is ready for cool Fall weather

[eastcoastFL]

ICON looks like it develops something in the BOC but the run ends shortly after. Euro has something that pops up in the gulf an heads towards Tampa. Looks like a weak TS?

[eastcoastFL]

There's a pretty good signal for heavy rain over Florida at a minimum. Anything beyond that fits into the unknowable category at this point. I'd disregard both the hype squad and the professional downcast squad at this point and wait for clarity...which will take awhile...pretty much just like every potential system.

Yea I do think Florida can get some rains from this. Let's just hope the rains move in and out fairly quickly if they do come. They need a break.

Would tend to disagree. Helene was a very poor rainmaker for us. We probably need more rain.

I guess that would depend on where exactly you are located.