2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[toad strangler]

Is September 27 the new September 10?

• Helene is still causing flooding problems after an impressive Cat 4 landfall
• Isaac strengthened into a high-latitude hurricane, and may even have a chance at Cat 2 (however small)
• Joyce has formed, marking the first time in 2024 with three concurrent TCs
• Two more lemons, with a possible Helene redux and a possible MDR storm in October

https://i.postimg.cc/QxZMXFfQ/two-atl-7d0.png

Anomalies are always fun to talk about. This year it was Beryl early, the mid August to peak season drought, And now a flurry of activity as if this now was the last week of August into 9/10 climatological peak. Storm count forecast will bust and ACE projections will likely underwhelm. But real impacts have already overwhelmed, and we haven’t even hit October yet.

[cycloneye]

A look at the 2024 season so far. Notice that Beryl and Helene took the same track just before Yucatán.

[Hurricane2022]

A look at the 2024 season so far. Notice that Beryl and Helene took the same track just before Yucatán.

https://i.imgur.com/oeK2KEZ.png

Initially I was expecting to see this map in Early August, not in late September but anyway... Thank god this image is from September 28 and not August 8

[Hammy]

Interesting thing to note, I believe this will be the first time since 2015 that we've gone the entire month of September without an MDR-originating hurricane

[aspen]

Looks like the predictions of a late September peak/switch flip and a very late MDR season are verifying. We might actually hit 15 NS and 100+ ACE at this rate; after the late August to early September slowdown, it was looking possible this season wouldn’t break 10 NS and 100 ACE.

[tolakram]

Looks like the predictions of a late September peak/switch flip and a very late MDR season are verifying. We might actually hit 15 NS and 100+ ACE at this rate; after the late August to early September slowdown, it was looking possible this season wouldn’t break 10 NS and 100 ACE.

I'm not so sure, but I'm also not sure it matters after Helene. The message was for a bad season, communicated in storm count. The reality was one of the largest disasters in recent memory from a single storm.

[kevin]

A TD expected to become an MDR MH, another wave behind it with similar long-tracker MH potential and perhaps a risk of not going OTS. Then another GOM/WCar disturbance which is always a wild card. And two other active systems about to leave the scene. Looks more like Sept 1 than Sept 30. We could still be in for a long season.

[Blown Away]

CV hurricanes very rarely make it across the Atlantic anymore to affect land… All this preseason talk of +NAO and stronger BH, etc… Is it just pure coincidence or is there something changing in the atmosphere???

[Cachondo23]

CV hurricanes very rarely make it across the Atlantic anymore to affect land… All this preseason talk of +NAO and stronger BH, etc… Is it just pure coincidence or is there something changing in the atmosphere???

Well, is Beryl not consider a CV hurricane has it almost form south of those islands and hit Windwards Islands among other places?

I do agree with you that in the past years CV hurricanes that have affected land have been very rare. Nothing like 2017 we haven't seen in a while.

[Zonacane]

CV hurricanes very rarely make it across the Atlantic anymore to affect land… All this preseason talk of +NAO and stronger BH, etc… Is it just pure coincidence or is there something changing in the atmosphere???

WE HAD A CATEGORY 5 CV THIS YEAR THAT MADE LANDFALL IN TEXAS

[Kazmit]

CV hurricanes very rarely make it across the Atlantic anymore to affect land… All this preseason talk of +NAO and stronger BH, etc… Is it just pure coincidence or is there something changing in the atmosphere???

It's rare for strong hurricanes to traverse the whole MDR without getting picked up by a trough anyway. Now that it's practically October, it's extra rare.

[weeniepatrol]

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.imgur.com/7jekgse.png

This is almost comical. It’s like the Atlantic heard people talking about a below-average season and took it personally.

[Category5Kaiju]

If a future season ever sees stability problems in August and early September despite a -ENSO state, you can surely bet that 2024 will be used as an example of how that doesn't mean it will be the same in late September onward

[Teban54]

If a future season ever sees stability problems in August and early September despite a -ENSO state, you can surely bet that 2024 will be used as an example of how that doesn't mean it will be the same in late September onward

I mean, people used 2022 to argue for a delayed peak in 2024 just a few weeks earlier, and that wasn't enough to convince others who had firmly believed that the season was effectively over.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1841552535561117858

[Teban54]

From Phil Klotzbach's tweet earlier. While not at the forecast 23/12/6 levels, the season is now back to above average YTD in NS, H and MH counts compared to the "inflated" 1991-2020 climo.

[kevin]

With Kirk becoming a cat 4, the 2024 season now has 3 cat 4/5 hurricanes. I usually only look at MH and regular hurricane numbers. But I also decided to check out the statistics for cat 4/5 hurricanes only. If you do so, these are the seasons with the most cat 4 and 5 hurricanes. With 3 cat 4/5 hurricanes, 2024 now belongs to the upper ~10% years in the database. Only 12 seasons have had 4 cat 4/5 hurricanes or more, 1964 and 2008 being the only of those years not reaching hyperactivity. Will be interesting to see where 2024 will fall at the end of the season.

- 5 -
2020
2005
1999
1961
1933

- 4 -
2017
2010
2008
2004
1964
1932
1926

- 3 -
2024
2023
2019
1995
1988
1958
1955
1950
1935

[jlauderdal]

With Kirk becoming a cat 4, the 2024 season now has 3 cat 4/5 hurricanes. I usually only look at MH and regular hurricane numbers. But I also decided to check out the statistics for cat 4/5 hurricanes only. If you do so, these are the seasons with the most cat 4 and 5 hurricanes. With 3 cat 4/5 hurricanes, 2024 now belongs to the upper ~10% years in the database. Only 12 seasons have had 4 cat 4/5 hurricanes or more, 1964 and 2008 being the only of those years not reaching hyperactivity. Will be interesting to see where 2024 will fall at the end of the season.

- 5 -
2020
2005
1999
1961
1933

- 4 -
2017
2010
2008
2004
1964
1932
1926

- 3 -
2024
2023
2019
1995
1988
1958
1955
1950
1935

Quality and we are seeing quantity now, a very strange season that still has work to do.

[Category5Kaiju]

In hindsight, maybe Beryl indeed was an indicator of a busy season, as opposed to being a stray that appeared out of nowhere for no reason?

The same abnormally warm waters that fueled Beryl seem to be helping fuel a very late Cape Verde season with two significant hurricanes. And there's no telling what these warm waters will help fuel once we get into late October and November, when activity shifts to the Caribbean. Or....maybe we do get a November MDR major? Who knows?