Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[CrazyC83]

Interestingly, this could be stronger off the east coast, then the question is - does the trough axis go neutral and drive it inland further up the coast?

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, based on the EURO, this might be an even faster mover than Helene.

[xironman]

Interestingly, this could be stronger off the east coast, then the question is - does the trough axis go neutral and drive it inland further up the coast?

So what's up with these crazy 500mb storms that should be in November happening now?

[gatorcane]

CMC ensembles are generally favoring the FL peninsula:

[canes92]

CMC ensembles are generally favoring the FL peninsula:

https://i.postimg.cc/s2vcz9JB/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh72-180.gif

So 6-7 days from now.

[Blown Away]

Saved 12Z Euro loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VkKMdQV5/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-240.gif

What do you think Gatorcane, can we get more than a TS on that type of track??

[Jag95]

Ah, another storm late next week? The setup looks quite different from Helene, and the models are seeing it, with the exception of the GFS. The upper-level pattern has shifted to fall across the Gulf. Models, except for the GFS, indicate a significant cold front moving south through the Gulf on Tuesday. Kind of similar to the setup before Francine, but with stronger west wind aloft across the northern Gulf - a less favorable environment. Whenever a cold front makes it south across the western Gulf, the air accelerates down the coast of Mexico, forming a natural wave on the front, usually east of Brownsville. The Euro, ICON, and Canadian see the front, though the Canadian adds some extra flair in the extended range. GFS doesn't see the front.

What's going to happen? I wouldn't go with the GFS solution, as it's almost always too aggressive with strengthening in this setup. Plus, it may be too weak with the front. Euro is generally too weak this far out. I'd go with the 00Z ICON solution. More of a frontal low in the central Gulf by next Saturday. With all the model support, I think a low will, indeed develop. I don't know if it'll be tropical enough for the NHC to name. Given the upper level flow, I'd say Florida will be in its sights. Hopefully, it's a weak low.

Meanwhile, I now have 5 more comp days to take, so I think I'll take Monday and Tuesday off. Kind of chilly outside this morning. It's 68 degrees! Better check the status of the heater. Have to let it warm up a bit before heading out for a long ride.

Thar works for me Xman!....and yes!....its chilly outside this morning....feels great!....enjoy your time off bro...
.

I see where the latest GFS has highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 40s the second week of October for the northern Gulf Coast. Keep it right there Mr GFS.

[johngaltfla]

MUCH stronger in the Gulf on the GFS. CMC is a bit stronger also. GFS shifts west and the CMC shifts east towards Florida

At this point, I, for one, will take the rain a storm brings if it means keeping it away from western NC and eastern TN.

I hear ya, we can absorb some pain in SE Florida, we have had plenty of good fortune.

We're sending you our bad fortune. You get all the snowbirds this season since our tourist destinations and beaches have been trashed. Enjoy the left turn signals in the left lane on I-95.

[gatorcane]

Saved 12Z Euro loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VkKMdQV5/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-240.gif

What do you think Gatorcane, can we get more than a TS on that type of track??

I think it's possible. The GFS shows a CAT 2/3 hurricane and has the system even further west than the Euro before the ENE turn, and it is likely too far west anyway. If we go back and look at historical tracks, would we find one that hits the peninsula as a hurricane on an ENE track from the Central Gulf?

[cajungal]

Just why? Yes I am tired here in SE Louisiana but love my Florida neighbors and they also need a break. Mother Nature just doesn’t care. It is relentless

[SFLcane]

[Travorum]

Saved 12Z Euro loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VkKMdQV5/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-240.gif

What do you think Gatorcane, can we get more than a TS on that type of track??

I think it's possible. The GFS shows a CAT 2/3 hurricane and has the system even further west than the Euro before the ENE turn, and it is likely too far west anyway. If we go back and look at historical tracks, would we find one that hits the peninsula as a hurricane on an ENE track from the Central Gulf?

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr4GV6wH/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-204.gif

Took a quick look through the historical tracks and found a few examples from the 1800s. All of these occurred late September/early October:

[johngaltfla]

Saved 12Z Euro loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VkKMdQV5/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-240.gif

What do you think Gatorcane, can we get more than a TS on that type of track??

I think it's possible. The GFS shows a CAT 2/3 hurricane and has the system even further west than the Euro before the ENE turn, and it is likely too far west anyway. If we go back and look at historical tracks, would we find one that hits the peninsula as a hurricane on an ENE track from the Central Gulf?

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr4GV6wH/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-204.gif

Ask and ye shall receive:



That's the 1945 storm, peaked as a 2, landfall north of Tampa as a 1.

Here's the spaghetti of Cat 1 plus storms from NOAA:

[Stormcenter]

There is always going to be a first time for everything.

Saved 12Z Euro loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VkKMdQV5/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-240.gif

What do you think Gatorcane, can we get more than a TS on that type of track??

I think it's possible. The GFS shows a CAT 2/3 hurricane and has the system even further west than the Euro before the ENE turn, and it is likely too far west anyway. If we go back and look at historical tracks, would we find one that hits the peninsula as a hurricane on an ENE track from the Central Gulf?

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr4GV6wH/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-204.gif

[johngaltfla]

Just why? Yes I am tired here in SE Louisiana but love my Florida neighbors and they also need a break. Mother Nature just doesn’t care. It is relentless

Thank you Cajun. We're whipped physically and financially down here. Debby was bad, Helene was bad, we don't ask what's next any more.

[jlauderdal]

And they like to go right.

[cajungal]

Just why? Yes I am tired here in SE Louisiana but love my Florida neighbors and they also need a break. Mother Nature just doesn’t care. It is relentless

Thank you Cajun. We're whipped physically and financially down here. Debby was bad, Helene was bad, we don't ask what's next any more.

We got floodwater in 2 rooms in our house because of a direct hit with Francine but complete heartbroken what my neighbors in Florida as well as TN and Carolina’s had to endure from Helene

[mpic]

Where are all those people who were declaring thecseason dead? Lol We could use some rain north of Houston, but not even -removed-.

[floridasun]

florida cannot take other hit we have so many hit we need rest let hope next system stay as TS only

[eastcoastFL]

Euro has a 996 mb TS going into Tampa Bay.

A tropical wave passing to the north of the gyre can sometimes spark development off of it, which is why modeling is more aggressive on development overall compared to what you'd see from a typical GFS phantom gyre storm.

Doesn’t look like much as far as wind goes and surge shouldn’t be a major problem. But the rain could be a big issue from Tampa north, especially if it’s a prolonged rain event.