Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[ConvergenceZone]

The 18z GFS on the AOI in the Caribbean run provides all your necessary entertainment needs for today. It's a two-part series fyi.
Part 1
https://i.ibb.co/frtSWtZ/1.gif
Part 2
https://i.ibb.co/gz1tTdr/2.gif

It's as if GFS is seeing how many landfalls it can make in one run lol.

[hipshot]

12Z CMC ensembles, classic October track, let’s hope they are wrong:

https://i.postimg.cc/PJyYBm9C/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-234.gif

EPS with a similiar idea, October is Florida's month.

That looks like a Helene redux!!

[Teban54]

Still no big development from ICON, who many trust the most, so move along
j/k

Both 12z and 18z ICON do have lows in the GoM near the end of the runs.

[jlauderdal]

Still no big development from ICON, who many trust the most, so move along
j/k

Both 12z and 18z ICON do have lows in the GoM near the end of the runs.

No shortage of ensemble support and increasing support from the NHC.

[Frank P]

Looks like a weak broad rotation spinning in the SW Caribbean tonight. Click on image for loop.

[NDG]

Looks like a weak broad rotation spinning in the SW Caribbean tonight. Click on image for loop.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/W5kVQhX/46721420.gif [/url]

Clearly an ULL.
Disturbance is supposed to start developing in 3 days per GFS & CMC after that ULL exits.

[CrazyC83]

Juan 1985 did sort of a stop-and-turn-back movement off the Louisiana coast (and in late October), so there is some precedence for such.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it really realistic for the gfs to depict it so tiny? Looks like it would give Marco 08 a run for its money

[Teban54]

0z GFS:


0z CMC, with a bizarre track almost hitting Tampa from the northwest while weakening:


0z ICON. It does have a TS in the western Gulf, but it shows an earlier system (or at least further north) than both GFS and CMC:

[ConvergenceZone]

Is it really realistic for the gfs to depict it so tiny? Looks like it would give Marco 08 a run for its money

tiny, but seems to be a much slower mover than Helene, at least in the last few frames looking at the GFS. Then again I think we would be hard pressed to find a lightning fast mover like Helene anytime soon.

Regardless the models seem to be coming together once again. Of course it's incredibly difficult for the models to get even remotely close to strength this far out.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Juan 1985 did sort of a stop-and-turn-back movement off the Louisiana coast (and in late October), so there is some precedence for such.

Danny and Juan '85 was my 1st real storms I remember as a child. Flooded our entire town. Our yard had building supplies floating (for repairs from Danny) around. At 4-5ft of water in our house.

My grandpa called my father and told him to leave asap bc juan had turned back to louisiana. Probably saved our lives with that one phone call. By the time we got out, water was already reaching our porch/doorway.

Juan put the love of hurricanes in me and ive been a weather nut since

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the early part of next week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development thereafter while the
system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week as the system enters the Gulf
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[kevin]

06z GFS, 984 mb landfall just east of New Orleans at +183 hrs followed by a 990 mb Mobile landfall at +189 hrs.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS.

[ChrisH-UK]

We could be looking at two possible tc's not one. The disturbance in the Caribbean passes over the Yucatan and forms a possible storm in the Bay of Campeche, the CAG mixes with the next wave after it and that forms the next storm. The GFS shows it happening but the likes of ECWMF and CMC have them weaker. Looks like the main crux is what happens in the East Pacific along the coast of Mexico how much of a storm forms there and effects what happens over the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche.

[underthwx]

We could be looking at two possible tc's not one. The disturbance in the Caribbean passes over the Yucatan and forms a possible storm in the Bay of Campeche, the CAG mixes with the next wave after it and that forms the next storm. The GFS shows it happening but the likes of ECWMF and CMC have them weaker. Looks like the main crux is what happens in the East Pacific along the coast of Mexico how much of a storm forms there and effects what happens over the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5163/DiM8y1.gif [/url]
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9708/gqh4Gq.gif [/url]
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7466/3LUmvm.gif [/url]

Brownsville forecast discussion mentioned a low in the BOC....but nothing really cones of it.....the other one...who knows

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for additional development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during
the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[3090]

We could be looking at two possible tc's not one. The disturbance in the Caribbean passes over the Yucatan and forms a possible storm in the Bay of Campeche, the CAG mixes with the next wave after it and that forms the next storm. The GFS shows it happening but the likes of ECWMF and CMC have them weaker. Looks like the main crux is what happens in the East Pacific along the coast of Mexico how much of a storm forms there and effects what happens over the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5163/DiM8y1.gif [/url]
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9708/gqh4Gq.gif [/url]
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7466/3LUmvm.gif [/url]

Brownsville forecast discussion mentioned a low in the BOC....but nothing really cones of it.....the other one...who knows

The other one who knows?? You meant to say the other one is about 987 hurricane into the north central gulf coast near Mobile!

No string trofs forecasted any time soon either. The track of whatever forms wherever it forms should be pretty simple without any trofs coming.

[wxman57]

Ah, another storm late next week? The setup looks quite different from Helene, and the models are seeing it, with the exception of the GFS. The upper-level pattern has shifted to fall across the Gulf. Models, except for the GFS, indicate a significant cold front moving south through the Gulf on Tuesday. Kind of similar to the setup before Francine, but with stronger west wind aloft across the northern Gulf - a less favorable environment. Whenever a cold front makes it south across the western Gulf, the air accelerates down the coast of Mexico, forming a natural wave on the front, usually east of Brownsville. The Euro, ICON, and Canadian see the front, though the Canadian adds some extra flair in the extended range. GFS doesn't see the front.

What's going to happen? I wouldn't go with the GFS solution, as it's almost always too aggressive with strengthening in this setup. Plus, it may be too weak with the front. Euro is generally too weak this far out. I'd go with the 00Z ICON solution. More of a frontal low in the central Gulf by next Saturday. With all the model support, I think a low will, indeed develop. I don't know if it'll be tropical enough for the NHC to name. Given the upper level flow, I'd say Florida will be in its sights. Hopefully, it's a weak low.

Meanwhile, I now have 5 more comp days to take, so I think I'll take Monday and Tuesday off. Kind of chilly outside this morning. It's 68 degrees! Better check the status of the heater. Have to let it warm up a bit before heading out for a long ride.

[underthwx]

We could be looking at two possible tc's not one. The disturbance in the Caribbean passes over the Yucatan and forms a possible storm in the Bay of Campeche, the CAG mixes with the next wave after it and that forms the next storm. The GFS shows it happening but the likes of ECWMF and CMC have them weaker. Looks like the main crux is what happens in the East Pacific along the coast of Mexico how much of a storm forms there and effects what happens over the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5163/DiM8y1.gif [/url]
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9708/gqh4Gq.gif [/url]
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7466/3LUmvm.gif [/url]

Brownsville forecast discussion mentioned a low in the BOC....but nothing really cones of it.....the other one...who knows

The other one who knows?? You meant to say the other one is about 987 hurricane into the north central gulf coast near Mobile!

No string trofs forecasted any time soon either. The track of whatever forms wherever it forms should be pretty simple without any trofs coming.

By the other one...I was referring to tbe wave currently in the eastern carribean....I have not read anything about a hurricane affecting the north central Gulf coast...the only information I read...is the NHC tropical outlook....which has the western carribean and southern Gulf at a medium chance (40%) of development possible....I apologize if I was vague.....its a bit early to set off alarm bells by stating that a 987 mb cyclone will impact anywhere....hopefully this system will not form...and to be crystal clear with you 3090.....I meant to say nothing of what you are referring to....I mean u no disrespect...but please don't suggest that I meant there will be a cyclone impacting the north central gulf region....it just aint so.....peace out...