ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[longhorn2004]

So why has Helene not shot off to the Northeast like other storms? Why is it meandering over Tennessee?

What is meandering over Tennessee? The storm center appears to be in North Carolina and on course toward Virginia . . . even the almost 90 degree turn the NHC is predicting, were it to happen now, would cause it to only nick the far northeast of Tennessee.

Thats a little harsh. The general gist of the comment is - whats going on that this is predicted to stall over the eastern US rather than lift into Canada or out to sea like most of these storms do.

The NHC prediction is based on the models - both the GFS and Euro support the center of the storm making a hard left - rotating around, then merging with the upper level cut off low that is currently centered over Memphis before that whole system slowly winds down and drifts east over the next week until a front comes and finally pushes whats left of it out to sea in the middle of next week.

Thank you. At present, the remnants of Helene have not gotten the left turn message. It was just odd that the forecast was for the remnants of Helen to just sit over Tennessee. We will see if they follow the forecast or shoot off to the Northeast.

https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/# ... ,crosshair

[caneman]

Putting on my Public Health hat on here Re: Track differences for a minute…

What is studied in the post-analysis regarding the outcomes of track discrepancies? Yes, a 150mile divergence is pretty wild but the entire SE corner was under a TS/H warning. I understand the need to improve modeling but in terms of public messaging— I think NHC did a pretty good job. They expanded warnings northward into GA as the track wobbled. The surge predictions seemed to have verified. SPC was there with excessive rainfall outlooks for the inland effects. The track was off but what is the effect?

Disagree to an extent.. They took too long on shifting the track more to the right. The typically are slow to adjust. I know labdfall was in the right hand part of cone but everyone kept saying Tallahasse when you could clearly see it was more like Perry. In the end it likely didn't matter but still. Further, storm surge values should have been higher than 5 to 8 feet as it nearly maxed that out. Up to 10 foot would have been better. Folks in flood zone B nearly got water in their homes. Having said all that, storm surge here has never been at the very high end here. People don't know what they don't know unless having experienced it before. I can tell you this, it was a massive wake up call for Tampa Bay!!!!

[NC George]

Rutherford County, NC Emergency Management
1h ·
RESIDENTS BELOW THE LAKE LURE DAM NEED TO EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!!
DAM FAILURE IMMINIENT!! EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!!

wow that's a decent sized lake too, hopefully it finds a way to hold on.

They just rebuilt the dam like 2 years ago.

[cycloneye]

Over 4 millon custumers are without power in 4 states.

 https://x.com/PowerOutage_us/status/1839673617539363087

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://x.com/NHC_Surge/status/1839677998880227563

[WaveBreaking]

Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, and Tennessee are all covered by Helene’s rain shield.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yikes, it looks like (according to Helene’s wiki page) there have been at least 33 confirmed fatalities associated with the storm. Sad news

[tolakram]

996mb up here and still falling. Vigorous wind, but beyond small branches and a half dead tree falling in the woods I think we escaped without Ike like damage. SE of here though, that story is still unfolding.

[Pipelines182]

Yikes, it looks like (according to Helene’s wiki page) there have been at least 33 confirmed fatalities associated with the storm. Sad news

Sadly I would expect it to get higher. A huge portion of the southern Appalachians are unreachable, people can't even get in touch with their loved ones by phone.

[tolakram]

I40 washed out, that will be a big detour.

 https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1839731792904896750

[lovingseason2013]

Yikes, it looks like (according to Helene’s wiki page) there have been at least 33 confirmed fatalities associated with the storm. Sad news

I would be curious how many died directly due to storm surge. And do they actually ever identify a body from the sharpie marker info? I wish they would be more blunt about how deadly the storm surge really is and post publicly that someone died directly because they refused to evacuate, rather than making it seem like an urban legend that people die when they don’t evacuate. Does that make sense?

[Pipelines182]

Yikes, it looks like (according to Helene’s wiki page) there have been at least 33 confirmed fatalities associated with the storm. Sad news

I would be curious how many died directly due to storm surge. And do they actually ever identify a body from the sharpie marker info? I wish they would be more blunt about how deadly the storm surge really is and post publicly that someone died directly because they refused to evacuate, rather than making it seem like an urban legend that people die when they don’t evacuate. Does that make sense?

Probably not many, or any at all honestly. This part of Florida has a very low population density. I would wager a guess that most of the deaths from this storm is going to be attributed to trees and freshwater flooding.

[CrazyC83]

Working on a BT for Helene.

[JtSmarts]

A lot of towns in eastern Georgia and western SC were hit incredibly hard, some of the devastation is incredible, especially knowing how far inland these communities are. Very reminiscent of Hugo.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/WXFatalities/status/1839729590438441431


 https://x.com/cameronwctv/status/1839739616062255138

[syfr]

Western NC is really slammed. The dam at Lake Lure is failing and they're trying to evacuate people downstream, but pretty much ALL roads in western NC are impassible (including I40 , which is collapsing in sections)

We've spent the last year driving out that way to find property to get away from the effect of 'canes here in the Triangle area. It's a beautiful part of the world and it's going to take years to recover, and the worst is likely yet to come.

[caneman]

Yikes, it looks like (according to Helene’s wiki page) there have been at least 33 confirmed fatalities associated with the storm. Sad news

I would be curious how many died directly due to storm surge. And do they actually ever identify a body from the sharpie marker info? I wish they would be more blunt about how deadly the storm surge really is and post publicly that someone died directly because they refused to evacuate, rather than making it seem like an urban legend that people die when they don’t evacuate. Does that make sense?

Probably not many, or any at all honestly. This part of Florida has a very low population density. I would wager a guess that most of the deaths from this storm is going to be attributed to trees and freshwater flooding.

Pinellas county so far has 2 storm surge deaths. The other 3 are yet to be determine. Death toll could grow

[lovingseason2013]

Yikes, it looks like (according to Helene’s wiki page) there have been at least 33 confirmed fatalities associated with the storm. Sad news

I would be curious how many died directly due to storm surge. And do they actually ever identify a body from the sharpie marker info? I wish they would be more blunt about how deadly the storm surge really is and post publicly that someone died directly because they refused to evacuate, rather than making it seem like an urban legend that people die when they don’t evacuate. Does that make sense?

Probably not many, or any at all honestly. This part of Florida has a very low population density. I would wager a guess that most of the deaths from this storm is going to be attributed to trees and freshwater flooding.

How can we find out? I would like to start posting the names and cause of death on X so the people maybe realize a little bit more about the dangers of storm surge and that you don’t have to be in direct path to die. We can’t just assume no one died from storm surge, we need facts. I’ve been through so many storms where they talk about people floating around dead after a storm hits, and that they’re hiding the deaths, and so forth, and it remains a conspiracy theory because there is never an official place to confirm or deny. I remember after hurricane Ivan the reports of morgue trucks being loaded up, and there were deaths, But I don’t know if those deaths were part of that morgue truck myth or not.

[CrazyC83]

Here is how I would assess the BT of Helene (this is unofficial).

AL092024, HELENE, 20,
20240923, 1200, , LO, 17.2N, 81.8W, 25, 1006,
20240923, 1800, , LO, 17.9N, 81.9W, 30, 1004,
20230924, 0000, , TD, 18.2N, 82.2W, 30, 1003,
20230924, 0600, , TS, 18.6N, 82.7W, 35, 1001,
20240924, 1200, , TS, 19.0N, 83.6W, 40, 1000,
20240924, 1800, , TS, 19.4N, 84.6W, 45, 996,
20230925, 0000, , TS, 19.7N, 85.2W, 55, 990,
20230925, 0600, , TS, 20.3N, 85.9W, 60, 985,
20240925, 1200, , HU, 21.1N, 86.2W, 70, 979,
20240925, 1800, , HU, 22.0N, 86.6W, 75, 976,
20230926, 0000, , HU, 22.8N, 86.6W, 75, 973,
20230926, 0600, , HU, 23.6N, 86.4W, 80, 969,
20240926, 1200, , HU, 24.7N, 85.9W, 90, 963,
20240926, 1800, , HU, 26.7N, 84.9W, 105, 955,
20230927, 0000, , HU, 28.7N, 84.3W, 120, 941,
20230927, 0300, L, HU, 30.0N, 83.9W, 125, 938,
20230927, 0600, , HU, 31.3N, 83.4W, 80, 957,
20240927, 1200, , TS, 34.4N, 83.0W, 50, 970,
20240927, 1800, , EX, 36.7N, 84.7W, 35, 982,
20240928, 0000, , EX, 37.9N, 87.5W, 30, 986,

* Genesis is moved up 12 hours to 0000Z September 24. The recon flight around 1800Z on September 23 did not find a conclusive center, however, a weak center was identified around 0300Z September 24 in the night flight and Dvorak was up to T2.0. Given later trends, it was probably enough to call it a tropical depression at that time (and a tropical storm at 0600Z).
* The over-water intensities and the track are largely smoothed out. Most changes are within +/- 0.2 degrees, 5 knots or 2-3 millibars.
* It is clear that it rapidly intensified right up to landfall. The highest flight-level winds were 136 kt with the NOAA plane, which is about 120 kt at the surface before it left at about 0100Z, while the AF plane maxed out at about 132 kt just before landfall (supporting 119 kt). Radar velocities, however, were somewhat stronger, supporting as high as 130 kt, while satellite signatures (T6.5-7.0) supported at least 125 kt. It is also possible the recon missed the strongest winds as they may have been so close to shore. The SFMR should be ignored due to shoaling. Additionally, the pressure fell a bit more after the NOAA plane left. Based on all that, I estimate the landfall intensity was 125 kt. Consideration was made for 130 kt, but perhaps the radar data was too transitory. The 938 mb pressure is maintained based on the last Recon flight and surface data inland with pressures in Perry around 943 mb.
* Helene carried hurricane force winds well inland, deep into Georgia and possibly into South Carolina. That said, the latter state is too inconclusive to consider a hurricane impact - I would go with AFL4 (NW Florida) and IGA2 (inland Georgia).
* Extratropical transition is set at 1800Z, although it may have happened a bit sooner.

[Pipelines182]

I would be curious how many died directly due to storm surge. And do they actually ever identify a body from the sharpie marker info? I wish they would be more blunt about how deadly the storm surge really is and post publicly that someone died directly because they refused to evacuate, rather than making it seem like an urban legend that people die when they don’t evacuate. Does that make sense?

Probably not many, or any at all honestly. This part of Florida has a very low population density. I would wager a guess that most of the deaths from this storm is going to be attributed to trees and freshwater flooding.

Pinellas county so far has 2 storm surge deaths. The other 3 are yet to be determine. Death toll could grow

Really unfortunate, they had days of warning too.