Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean by the
middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter, while the system moves
generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

That latest GFS run was wild. Has it bombing out into a Category 5 hurricane in the Bay of Campeche, but due to the late season troughing, it stalls and then starts getting tugged toward the northeast

[StPeteMike]

I’m hoping these are one of those phantom storms this time, but a lot of models are picking this up. I’ve been exhausted with Helene, let me check back in like 3 days.

[Beef Stew]

I was just about to start this thread, but you beat me to it, cycloneye!

Anyways, model consensus has been building for more CAG formation in this area in the coming week, so I'm glad this got tagged. Far to early to tell, but there exists the possibility that this could be yet another GoM threat, but where and when remains far to distant to estimate. I'll be curious to see how the models evolve in coming days.

[aspen]

Can we not. The Gulf doesn’t need another hurricane hit, and I don’t need another hurricane clouding out the comet when it hits peak brightness.

[chris_fit]

CMC is basically Helene 2.0

[chris_fit]

EURO similar to GFS, just much weaker. This makes all 3 major models still on board.

[toad strangler]

This could be the FIFTH hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast. SIX would tie 1886. We can't have that in a BUST of a season

[Teban54]

This could be the recorded history record tying SIXTH hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast. Would tie 1886. We can't have that in a BUST of a season

Wait, did I miss something? We have Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene -- and what's the 5th?

(It doesn't matter whether you include Mexico's Gulf Coast, as neither Alberto nor Chris were hurricanes.)

[StPeteMike]

EURO similar to GFS, just much weaker. This makes all 3 major models still on board.

https://i.imgur.com/O6IGHsP.gif

And what could be a Caribbean Cruiser at the very end there. October might be the new September this year.

[toad strangler]

This could be the recorded history record tying SIXTH hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast. Would tie 1886. We can't have that in a BUST of a season

Wait, did I miss something? We have Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene -- and what's the 5th?

(It doesn't matter whether you include Mexico's Gulf Coast, as neither Alberto nor Chris were hurricanes.)

I misremembered Fixed that.... Would be the FIFTH. The record was SIX in 1886. Only five seasons (Since 1851) saw 4 plus Gulf hits. 1886, 1909, 1985, 2005, 2020

[SFLcane]

This could be the recorded history record tying SIXTH hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast. Would tie 1886. We can't have that in a BUST of a season

Wait, did I miss something? We have Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene -- and what's the 5th?

(It doesn't matter whether you include Mexico's Gulf Coast, as neither Alberto nor Chris were hurricanes.)

I misremembered Fixed that.... Would be the FIFTH. The record was SIX in 1886. Only five seasons (Since 1851) saw 4 plus Gulf hits. 1886, 1909, 1985, 2005, 2020

[PDKlikatino]

Would this storm have issues becoming as strong because of upwelling from Helene?

[MetroMike]

Would this storm have issues becoming as strong because of upwelling from Helene?

There should not be much upwelling due to quick movement of Helene and warm deep SST.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Would this storm have issues becoming as strong because of upwelling from Helene?

Wouldn’t think so. Helene is moving so fast, and the OHC is so high, to the point where it won’t make as much of a dent as most storms usually do.

[ConvergenceZone]

Would this storm have issues becoming as strong because of upwelling from Helene?

There should not be much upwelling due to quick movement of Helene and warm deep SST.

that's an excellent point. Most upwelling occurs with slow moving or stalled systems. You often read that in NHC discussions.

[Soluna16]

Seems like regardless of what happens here it will be shot out of a cannon from the BoC toward Florida.

[Travorum]

Would this storm have issues becoming as strong because of upwelling from Helene?

Wouldn’t think so. Helene is moving so fast, and the OHC is so high, to the point where it won’t make as much of a dent as most storms usually do.

Yeah OHC in the loop current is between 150-200+ kj/cm^2. The small amount of water that is upwelled from Helene isn't going to be that much cooler.

[Stratton23]

Soluna16 not exactly, GFS/ Euro/ CMC all have completely different 500 mb steering pattern

[Weathertracker96]

The 18z is still running and has the system south of Cuba by next Thursday. Seeing how future runs go, NHC might have to up the chances soon.

PS: Im using pivotal weather as tropical tidbits is down.