ATL: HELENE - Models

[lsuhurricane]

This run is also SE of prior runs....

[BobHarlem]

About 952mb right before landfall, at basically the same spot as the 18z run.

[CronkPSU]

uh oh...gfs coming in a tad SE but stronger this run

looks like 953 at landfall

[Bocadude85]

uh oh...gfs coming in a tad SE but stronger this run

looks like 953 at landfall

Yes landfall is a smidge east of 18z

[Steve]

CMC with most models near Tates Hell and at 970’s. Hurricane models should be running soon enough

[Beef Stew]

HAFS-B has dropped the Yucatan landfall nonsense, and as a result is coming in with its strongest run so far since 6z earlier today. At forecast hour 18 we're already looking at a rapidly deepening, 964 mb 75 kt hurricane. This looks it's shaping up to be another 920's, 130kt+ peak run.

[shah83]

HAFS-B is showing a much larger coherent system than in previous runs.

[Steve]

Strong runs for HAFS A and B so far. Also HMON. Not sure if the hurricane models are completely overdoing it or if they will beat most of the globals. Best guess is they are overdoing it. HAFS B 930s Thursday a bit after midnight? Show me.

[ElectricStorm]

Both HAFS have a strong Cat 1 at hour 6 which is valid at 6z which is... one hour from now. So these runs already look a little suspect, at least in the short-term. HMON looks much better with 52kts at 6z

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I think we can go ahead and throw this HAFS-B run out

[Bocadude85]

HAFS-B has shifted slightly east with landfall..not a trend we want to see continue. Only a 150kts before landfall..

[Beef Stew]

0z HAFS-B has a 920 mb, 150 kt hurricane on final approach to the Big Bend coast near Econfina River State Park. Up to 929 mb and 117 kts after landfall.

Unlikely to verify, but if nothing else, this run seems to get behind the SHIPS guidance in suggesting that conditions for intensification may end up being in place up through landfall.

[Beef Stew]

HAFS-B has a 920 mb, 150 kt hurricane on final approach to the Big Bend coast near Econfina River State Park. Up to 929 mb and 117 kts after landfall.

Unlikely to verify, but if nothing else, this run seems to get behind the SHIPS guidance in suggesting that conditions for intensification may end up being in place up through landfall.

And the HAFS-A run mirrors this. 928 mb, 138 kts leading up to landfall on the coastline pretty much due south of Perry.

[Beef Stew]

0z HWRF has Helene at 931 mb and 125 kts on approach to the coast, and 931 with 100 kt winds just after moving inland also in the Econfina State Park area. Another strong landfall from the 0z suite, and another one showing intensification up until landfall. The good news, at least, is that shear and dry air forecasts along the coast are notoriously fickle, so this could very easily change between now and Thursday night.

[kevin]

00z blend, category 4 before landfall. Peak intensities of 931mb/125kt for HWRF, 946mb/111kt for HMON, 928mb/138kt for HAFS-A and 920mb/151kt for HAFS-B.

Blend
PEAK: 932 mb @ 48 hrs | 128 kt @ 48 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 990 / 48
06 / 978 / 66 - C1
12 / 975 / 65
18 / 969 / 74
24 / 962 / 75
30 / 952 / 95 - C2
36 / 945 / 96
42 / 937 / 115 - C4
45 / 932 / 125
48 / 931 / 101 - landfall
51 / 945 / 66

[kevin]

06z ICON same intensity as 00z, 946 mb at landfall, +42 hrs near Steinhatchee.

[Keldeo1997]

Another run, Another HAFS banger

[robbielyn]

GFS 06z appalachee bay 955mb

[kevin]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1288453377964904488/hafsb_mslp_wind_09L_14.png?ex=66f53d37&is=66f3ebb7&hm=dafa797d37541857946c41252ae6054923180017149376e73065d241e8e7fa29&

Another run, Another HFAS banger

Don't worry, it gets worse.

[BobHarlem]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1288453377964904488/hafsb_mslp_wind_09L_14.png?ex=66f53d37&is=66f3ebb7&hm=dafa797d37541857946c41252ae6054923180017149376e73065d241e8e7fa29&

Another run, Another HFAS banger

Don't worry, it gets worse.

https://i.imgur.com/2SSSAeM.png

At least HAFS-A isn't "quite" as low... (little sarcasm here) If either of these models are anywhere close to correct Tallahassee is going to get wrecked.


HMON:



HWRF: