ATL: HELENE - Models

[Steve]

Oddly not intensifying though yet. Still 986 several hours later at 51H

[BobHarlem]

Stronger and faster (than 18z) at 63 hours

[Steve]

There it goes. 969 at 63 hours.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[BobHarlem]

Another steinhatchee landfall on 0z, same intensity even as 18z. No real change on the GFS. High end cat 2 at landfall, pushing a 3.

[Nederlander]

Steve,

Its actually 964 mb on landfall per the stamp on Weathermodels

https://i.postimg.cc/j5p8Ds6m/13-km-ICON-MSLP-MSLP-69-1.png

Good thing the ICON model is not one of the main models
that are taken more seriously.

It is taken seriously. It’s done very well with Gulf systems this year.

Yes, it has actually led the pack this year. Did well last year too.

[chaser1]

993 just at the NE tip of Yucatán at 33 hours for GFS. I had to switch to Mexico view to get it.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&m=gfs

Interestingly Steve, I'm pretty sure that this makes the 5th consecutive GFS model run with the pressure being higher then the prior run at this point off the tip of Yucatan. I believe the pressure was 983mb here on the 18Z (970's for the prior runs). I'm not suggesting this will reflect at final landfall but simply that it may take a bit longer to get itself together.

[chaser1]

Another steinhatchee landfall on 0z, same intensity even as 18z. No real change on the GFS. High end cat 2 at landfall, pushing a 3.

https://i.imgur.com/Qk8lCj8.png

I don't recall exactly but did the 0Z have the track slightly west of the 18Z?

[Steve]

993 just at the NE tip of Yucatán at 33 hours for GFS. I had to switch to Mexico view to get it.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&m=gfs

Interestingly Steve, I'm pretty sure that this makes the 5th consecutive GFS model run with the pressure being higher then the prior run at this point off the tip of Yucatan. I believe the pressure was 983mb here on the 18Z (970's for the prior runs). I'm not suggesting this will reflect at final landfall but simply that it may take a bit longer to get itself together.

I think we could eke out a 3 but it had crazy low pressure recently until now it doesn’t. Fwiw CMC is out to 48 hours on TT. 987 off the NE Coast of the Yucatán with a day or so to deepen. Possibly will hit as a Cat 2?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2400&fh=48

[Blown Away]

Another steinhatchee landfall on 0z, same intensity even as 18z. No real change on the GFS. High end cat 2 at landfall, pushing a 3.

https://i.imgur.com/Qk8lCj8.png

I don't recall exactly but did the 0Z have the track slightly west of the 18Z?

No, 00z GFS very slightly E of 18z

[Steve]

979 at 72 looking like it will be east of Apalachicola.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2400&fh=72

[BobHarlem]

0z Canadian shifted a little east of St. Marks the from Apalachicola area at 12z. Still cat 2 on the CMC.

[Steve]

Cut off low much farther east than 2 days ago on CMC. Atlanta gets some action.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2400&fh=78

[chaser1]

CMC looks to be about 6 hr's slower than its 18Z prior run. Beyond that, I see no change in strength on this new run

[Steve]

I gotta work early tomorrow so y’all catch those hurricane models and EC which if I wake up middle of the night am happy o read about.

[Woofde]

Steve,

Its actually 964 mb on landfall per the stamp on Weathermodels

https://i.postimg.cc/j5p8Ds6m/13-km-ICON-MSLP-MSLP-69-1.png

Good thing the ICON model is not one of the main models that are taken more seriously.

The ICON is no silver bullet, it misses plenty just like the Euro and GFS, but it also has had many great successes in the past few years. It was the first model to correctly lock onto Perry during Idalia last year. It deserves to be a part of the conversation.

[ElectricStorm]

Early 0z intensity guidance is noticeably weaker with only one reaching Cat 3, compared to 18z which had Cat 4s and a couple 5s. We'll see if hurricane models do the same although a lot of times their solutions are stronger than these.

[Poonwalker]

Steve,

Its actually 964 mb on landfall per the stamp on Weathermodels

https://i.postimg.cc/j5p8Ds6m/13-km-ICON-MSLP-MSLP-69-1.png

Good thing the ICON model is not one of the main models that are taken more seriously.

The ICON is no silver bullet, it misses plenty just like the Euro and GFS, but it also has had many great successes in the past few years. It was the first model to correctly lock onto Perry during Idalia last year. It deserves to be a part of the conversation.

This one seems like Idalia 2.0 if the forecast holds true. I expect similar surge values for Florida. That’s actually good news for the west central people which was about 3 foot in the Tampa Bay area.

[Woofde]

HAFS-B 962mb at hour 48. This HAFS run is going to go nuclear...

[ElectricStorm]

0z HAFS-A/HAFS-B/HMON all three have a hurricane before it enters the gulf

[typhoonty]

Good thing the ICON model is not one of the main models that are taken more seriously.

The ICON is no silver bullet, it misses plenty just like the Euro and GFS, but it also has had many great successes in the past few years. It was the first model to correctly lock onto Perry during Idalia last year. It deserves to be a part of the conversation.

This one seems like Idalia 2.0 if the forecast holds true. I expect similar surge values for Florida. That’s actually good news for the west central people which was about 3 foot in the Tampa Bay area.

It is larger and will produce more surge than that provided it hits at high tide. I wouldn't be shocked at 6 feet in the bay even if it makes landfall in Taylor County, I have a Horseshoe Beach landfall myself at 110 kts.