ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Upper level winds abating over it as predicted by NHC, we may have a core by tonight's flight

https://i.imgur.com/zSqpgWD.gif

Agreed. Hopefully this takes its time getting stacked because once it does, it’s off to the races. I am a little concerned that the global models are underestimating how quickly this could intensify once it gets the kinks worked out. Not to the HAFS levels, but this feels like a fairly easy call for major hurricane intensity.

[tolakram]

Still looks like a disorganized mess, hopefully this trend continues through tonight into the morning.

Interesting. From the loop posted just above this I'd say it's finally starting to look more organized.

[StPeteMike]

Still looks like a disorganized mess, hopefully this trend continues through tonight into the morning.

Don’t see anything disorganized and the satellite image can be deceiving. Should be a TS by early morning looking at the satellite image.

[cycloneye]

Dr Levi Cowan agrees that it looks better.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1838341891659829451

@TropicalTidbits
When watching #PTC9, between visible imagery and Cayman radar imagery, there appears to be some coupling now between the surface LLC to the west and the mid-level center in the convection to the east. The LLC is moving slightly south of west, implying the mid-level circulation may be burrowing down close to the surface and amplifying the low-level circulation on the eastern side, modifying the motion of the original LLC.

This is likely the beginning of the vortex alignment process, which will still take some time, but I would expect steady organization of PTC9 in this favorable environment. Intensification could be quick once an inner core wind field develops.

[Nimbus]

Right around the corner from you off Keene/Union in a non-evac zone. We should have a local impacts/preps thread going soon.

Could be 5-10 ft into Tampa Bay Thursday morning. Strong southerly flow into the bay east of the center. Very large wind field east of the track.

WXman57,

What are your thoughts on Boca Ciega Bay in Pinellas County?

Thanks

Pretty sure he wouldn't be riding his bike there and the trailer parks are only 5 ft elevation.
Quite a lot of water would have to flow through John's pass in the barrier islands though and the storm will be moving fast (if it stays west of -84. How did Boca Ciega do with Idalia?

[xironman]

Still looks like a disorganized mess, hopefully this trend continues through tonight into the morning.

At 42057 the pressure has dropped to 1003.5 as the storm is moving away from it. It is strengthening.

[StPeteMike]

Still looks like a disorganized mess, hopefully this trend continues through tonight into the morning.

At 42057 the pressure has dropped to 1003.5 as the storm is moving away from it. It is strengthening.

When is the next update, is it 11 pm?

[TampaCE]

I just left Publix on 4th Street here in St Pete and decided to go grab some extra waters and it’s still fully stocked. Got to talking to the kid stocking shelves and had two people overhear us and say they did not even know a storm was brewing. It’s nuts how unprepared people are. People were shopping like it was a normal Monday night and getting their weekly groceries.

[3090]

Upper level winds abating over it as predicted by NHC, we may have a core by tonight's flight

https://i.imgur.com/zSqpgWD.gif

LONG way to go. ULL over the northeast yucatan peninsula is inhibiting 97. And John (outflow) in the Pacific is not moving fast enough to allow the ULL to move west. It is all interconnected.

[Blown Away]

The very broad exposed circulation @18.1N/82.2W per 5pm appears to be dissipating and likely the mid level circulation to the NE near the convection may take over. The models have been showing this bouncing around for next @24hours. JMHO

[wx98]

Still looks like a disorganized mess, hopefully this trend continues through tonight into the morning.

At 42057 the pressure has dropped to 1003.5 as the storm is moving away from it. It is strengthening.

When is the next update, is it 11 pm?

They’ll be an intermediate update at 8 pm EDT but big changes are unlikely (they also don’t change the track and intensity forecast on intermediates). So, yes, 11 pm.

[Category5Kaiju]

At least according to satellite imagery, it does look like there's some very healthy convection, and I personally think it's only a matter of time before a closed center is identified and we get Helene.

[Jr0d]

The trend has been east for 36 hours. Anyone on the right side of the track within 100 miles needs to be preparing for a major hurricane, including Key West. NHC usually nails it, but even if they "nail" it, small deviations make huge differences extrapolated over time.

I can tell you the attitude in Key West right now is it will be well west of us and all we will see is outer rain bands and minor surge.

Hopefully we get spared the worst again, however the emergency planners need to decide early tomorrow if they will evacuate tourists. Only one road out so evacuating is a nightmare. They generally are extremely hesitant to issue evacuation orders for tourist, they will issue the order for mobile homes and live aboard vessels before they tell tourists to leave.

We got extremely lucky with Ian, just a little wobble east would have brought hurricane conditions and even worse surge. No evacuation orders were issued and we had tourist playing in the flood waters and high winds.

I feel like you say this every storm. Key West is under the gun and nobody ever seems to care very much besides you. I'm glad you pay attention to the tropics.

We ready had tropical storm conditions earlier this season with Debby. Currently that is all that is predicted here so only evacuation orders will be for mobile homes and boats, if any are issued.

While I understand the reluctance to issue an evacuation order, it does seem like we have had a lot of close calls and eventually that luck will run out and Key West will not be ready for a hurricane nor will the tourists who were not told to leave. It does seem they might be more concerned about losing tourist dollars at times.

That said, I would be shocked if we see anything more than low end tropical storm conditions for this one.

[StPeteMike]

I just left Publix on 4th Street here in St Pete and decided to go grab some extra waters and it’s still fully stocked. Got to talking to the kid stocking shelves and had two people overhear us and say they did not even know a storm was brewing. It’s nuts how unprepared people are. People were shopping like it was a normal Monday night and getting their weekly groceries.

Hey neighbor, my gym is right there!

Yeah I’m just sitting outside at a coffee shop and was talking to a friend about the storm because his mom called telling him to buy supplies and someone walking by stopped and asked “what storm”. I’m not looking forward of the evacuation when it occurs. Even with current track and the project storm surge, Zone A and B would have to evacuate. I hope that we have a grasp by morning ( was hoping it was today) and the county can release mandatory orders for Zone A.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure John's outflow will have any impact as the overall flow is all about a decaying front and the retrograding ULL in front of Nine. Not sure though, just an opinion.

[xironman]

Upper level winds abating over it as predicted by NHC, we may have a core by tonight's flight

https://i.imgur.com/zSqpgWD.gif

LONG way to go. ULL over the northeast yucatan peninsula is inhibiting 97. And John (outflow) in the Pacific is not moving fast enough to allow the ULL to move west. It is all interconnected.

The trough is retrograding 12z toughing the Isle of Youth:



21z tip of Cuba:

[StPeteMike]

At 42057 the pressure has dropped to 1003.5 as the storm is moving away from it. It is strengthening.

When is the next update, is it 11 pm?

They’ll be an intermediate update at 8 pm EDT but big changes are unlikely (they also don’t change the track and intensity forecast on intermediates). So, yes, 11 pm.

Thanks wx.

I wouldn’t put it out of the chances this gets bumped up straight to TS status at 11. The 8 pm might even hint at their future advisory.

[Jr0d]

https://i.postimg.cc/vHjb85Gj/goes16-vis-09-L-202409231955.gif

The very broad exposed circulation @18.1N/82.2W per 5pm appears to be dissipating and likely the mid level circulation to the NE near the convection may take over. The models have been showing this bouncing around for next @24hours. JMHO

If the center relocated further east where I am seeing a possible MLC, that might really cause some concern for West Florida.

It certainly does seem like the broad swirl is dissipating convection is really start to wrap further east.

Even though I am not currently in the danger zone, I am still concerned and can't help but watch every satellite image coming in. I think it's time to take a break, let the models input the improved days and hopefully I don't wake up to a major surprise tomorrow.

[Nuno]

https://i.imgur.com/N7CS1Lp.gif

Ft Myers was on the very far right edge of the cone 3 days out with Ian. Not the same setup but just a reminder that a lot can change in 3 days

I was thinking about this today. Thank you for posting it. People in Florida need to see this. We've seen the track shift east so many times.

Irene (99), Charley, Wilma, Ian

These strong, often intensifying systems being driven by trough interaction always seem to force storms east. Maybe this one will be different, but peninsular Floridians need to be alert.

[DunedinDave]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vHjb85Gj/goes16-vis-09-L-202409231955.gif [/url]

The very broad exposed circulation @18.1N/82.2W per 5pm appears to be dissipating and likely the mid level circulation to the NE near the convection may take over. The models have been showing this bouncing around for next @24hours. JMHO

If the center relocated further east where I am seeing a possible MLC, that might really cause some concern for West Florida.

It certainly does seem like the broad swirl is dissipating convection is really start to wrap further east.

Even though I am not currently in the danger zone, I am still concerned and can't help but watch every satellite image coming in. I think it's time to take a break, let the models input the improved days and hopefully I don't wake up to a major surprise tomorrow.

Mentioned this in the models thread but I don't think we can really take a model seriously until we really know "WHERE" the center is. It may not seem like a big deal, but a one degree shift in the center might be the difference in Tampa Bay getting 60mph winds vs. 100+ mph winds. It's a game-changer.