ATL: HELENE - Models

[mantis83]

the weaker the better, good news!

[CronkPSU]

i'll breathe easier after all the recon data is absorbed into the 0z models...

[DunedinDave]

Honestly, I still don't know if we can take a model seriously until a true center forms. I'm looking at visible and I still don't know where the heck it is. I don't think it's going to stay where the naked swirl is. I feel like it's going to be a little closer to where the convection currently is. So that's why I'm still hesitant to take any model seriously right now. That "L" they show is pretty far away from the convection.

The only thing I do believe is wherever this crosses into the GOM, that trough is going to kick it NE just like Ian got kicked NE 2 years go. For how long, though, I don't know. The GFS turns looks like a wobbling airplane turning it NE then NNE and then back NE again whereas the ICON just plows it due NE from the southern gulf into Crystal River.

[CrazyC83]

One thought is that if John inhibits this in the near term, that won't be an issue once it gets north of about 20N, and then if it waits to start rapid intensification, it won't have time to go into an ERC so it could be intensifying (rapidly) right up to landfall...

[SouthFLTropics]

The 18z HAFS models are running and so far they appear to have laid off the steroids they were taking at 12z. Much less intense through 18 hours.


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[WaveBreaking]

HAFS 18z runs are starting now. Both versions have dramatically held back on development and show a near due west track compared to their bonkers 12z runs. Something tells me that these runs are iffy, so it’s probably best to wait for the 00z runs that’ll have recon data.

[Woofde]

HAFS 18z runs are starting now. Both versions have dramatically held back on development and show a near due west track compared to their bonkers 12z runs. Something tells me that these runs are iffy, so it’s probably best to wait for the 00z runs that’ll have recon data.

Yeah I'd agree, those earlier runs were out of touch with reality due to lack of data. These current ones are also looking a little strange. I'm not putting a lot of stock into the hurricane models until tomorrow morning when we should have a solid vortex and things will have cleared up a lot.

[cheezyWXguy]

HAFS 18z runs are starting now. Both versions have dramatically held back on development and show a near due west track compared to their bonkers 12z runs. Something tells me that these runs are iffy, so it’s probably best to wait for the 00z runs that’ll have recon data.

https://i.imgur.com/mh0hZKv.png
https://i.imgur.com/9NiWAAO.png

https://i.imgur.com/tWG7MX9.png
https://i.imgur.com/XMhNkjA.png

Yeahhh… I don’t think it’s very likely this is going to be a microcane. The same logic used to discount the extreme 12z solutions applies here too: we need a defined center and structure at initialization to get a reasonable depiction here.

[aspen]

HAFS 18z runs are starting now. Both versions have dramatically held back on development and show a near due west track compared to their bonkers 12z runs. Something tells me that these runs are iffy, so it’s probably best to wait for the 00z runs that’ll have recon data.

https://i.imgur.com/mh0hZKv.png
https://i.imgur.com/9NiWAAO.png

https://i.imgur.com/tWG7MX9.png
https://i.imgur.com/XMhNkjA.png

Went from Rita/Wilma 2.0 to disorganized slop between two runs. Yeah we’re gonna need a defined LLC for these to be consistent and reliable.

These super weak 18z runs don’t seem particularly likely with the gradual consoldiation we’re seeing.

[BobHarlem]

Only a slight 90mb difference between the 12z and 18z runs on the 12z Thursday position on the HAFS-B.

[WaveBreaking]

How it started vs how it’s going





In all seriousness, the 18z HAFS runs have the same problem as the 12z runs, but in the opposite direction.

[BobHarlem]

18Z hafs-B landfalls as a cat 2/3 a bit west of 12z at Alligator Point (and not a cat 5 like 12z),

18z hmon is a little stronger, cat 4, landfalls basically the same place near Steinhatchee as 12z.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HAFS 18z runs are starting now. Both versions have dramatically held back on development and show a near due west track compared to their bonkers 12z runs. Something tells me that these runs are iffy, so it’s probably best to wait for the 00z runs that’ll have recon data.

https://i.imgur.com/mh0hZKv.png
https://i.imgur.com/9NiWAAO.png

https://i.imgur.com/tWG7MX9.png
https://i.imgur.com/XMhNkjA.png

Went from Rita/Wilma 2.0 to disorganized slop between two runs. Yeah we’re gonna need a defined LLC for these to be consistent and reliable.

These super weak 18z runs don’t seem particularly likely with the gradual consoldiation we’re seeing.

I agree... it seems 18z suite almost overcorrected, maybe due to the much stronger Hurricane John? We'd have to see zero development over the next 36 hours for any of the HAFS solutions to verify.

[aspen]

I’m wondering if the HAFS-A/B are so weak this run because they’re adjusting for a far stronger Hurricane John with more outflow interfering with Helene’s development/organization.

[Blown Away]

HWRF full degree W at 48 hours… Maybe a change coming??

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1838358130725405154



Good point above... I didn't think that the data might be skewed due to partially loaded data.

[Steve]

I’m wondering if the HAFS-A/B are so weak this run because they’re adjusting for a far stronger Hurricane John with more outflow interfering with Helene’s development/organization.

I doubt it. John would have little effect on this except inflow at some point. Look at the area WV and you can see it’s just that retrograding upper low that’s causing interference. At least one of them clips the Yucatán which would interrupt a developing system. There are also very high elevations separating the two. I get that there’s probably some minor competition for available energy but I doubt it’s much if at all

EPAC-WATL WV
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[skillz305]

That 18z ICON had a pretty decent shift eastward at landfall. After reading 18z data might be skewed, I'm VERY interested in what 00z brings across the table.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF has a massive shift in timing; went from landfall at 15z on Thursday to not even at Tampa's latitude.

This entire 18z suite just seems off regarding data ingestion. 00z we'll see if things start to change a bit.

[Powellrm]

HAFS 18z runs are starting now. Both versions have dramatically held back on development and show a near due west track compared to their bonkers 12z runs. Something tells me that these runs are iffy, so it’s probably best to wait for the 00z runs that’ll have recon data.

https://i.imgur.com/mh0hZKv.png
https://i.imgur.com/9NiWAAO.png

https://i.imgur.com/tWG7MX9.png
https://i.imgur.com/XMhNkjA.png

Went from Rita/Wilma 2.0 to disorganized slop between two runs. Yeah we’re gonna need a defined LLC for these to be consistent and reliable.

These super weak 18z runs don’t seem particularly likely with the gradual consoldiation we’re seeing.

It’s interesting because the large, disorganized slop was where we started a few days ago.