ATL: HELENE - Models

[Fancy1002]

On the positive side, a north of Tampa landfall would likely result in less time over water, but depending on how much it rapidly strengthen before hand, it would also leave less time for an eyewall replacement cycle to weaken it.

[Pelicane]

GFS correcting a bit weaker in the near-term. John developing in the EPAC is not something that was forecast well. Hopefully that lowers the peak a tiny bit.

[FLLurker32]

If there’s any good news the ICON is racing and has it around cat 2 level.

A cat 2 IF it were to hit Tampa can still be devastating.

Not just Tampa but it would put the ugly side through populated areas of north central FL from Homassassa, Ocala, The Villages and up through metro Jacksonville. Total state impacts would be much worse with this scenario. Millions of people.

[Powellrm]

I still envision this being pushed a little farther west. Surprised about the ICON’s bold east shift, but it began to pick that up yesterday, which has culminated with other eastern shifts today. Over the last few years I’ve really respected the ICON and I tend to give it a lot of notice for the calls it has picked up on early. ICON sticks to its guns too. I really figured the high pressure off of NC would help force this thing westward-particularly upon landfall. Folks inland into GA, SC, NC, and TN really need to take notice.

[eastcoastFL]

That’s a significant shift East. Not as noticeable at landfall as it is once it gets into Georgia.


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ICON seems to want to continue the trek NE, instead of looping back over Georgia and Tennessee headed NW.

Looks like the trough gets a little further east before getting cut off. Would reduce the tugging to the west which makes sense

Such a tough forecast with these cut off troughs. I'm sure the forecast will bounce around at least a bit over the coming days. It's really hard to nail these things down especially with a developing system.

[Pelicane]

GFS weaker by a good bit. Track doesn't look that different either. I'm thinking that John's outflow is really hurting it on the western side. You can tell on the simulated IR that it's kind of squished on that western side.

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS weaker by a good bit. Track doesn't look that different either. I'm thinking that John's outflow is really hurting it on the western side. You can tell on the simulated IR that it's kind of squished on that western side.

well, this is some good news anyway, and we need all the good news we can get with this.

[Pelicane]

GFS weaker by a good bit. Track doesn't look that different either. I'm thinking that John's outflow is really hurting it on the western side. You can tell on the simulated IR that it's kind of squished on that western side.

well, this is some good news anyway, and we need all the good news we can get with this.

Comes in at 966 mb into the big bend. It doesn't really get a core together until it gets into the gulf, compared to prior runs that had it tightening as it neared the Yucatan.

[DunedinDave]

I still envision this being pushed a little farther west. Surprised about the ICON’s bold east shift, but it began to pick that up yesterday, which has culminated with other eastern shifts today. Over the last few years I’ve really respected the ICON and I tend to give it a lot of notice for the calls it has picked up on early. ICON sticks to its guns too. I really figured the high pressure off of NC would help force this thing westward-particularly upon landfall. Folks inland into GA, SC, NC, and TN really need to take notice.

GFS has it east as well, although not as far east as ICON. Has landfall around Steinhatchee. There's a sharp NE turn and then it gradually makes a northerly turn and then turns back NE again and goes into SE Georgia. Biggest shift in the models has been there's been more of a sharper NE turn from the Yucatan Channel and not as much of a NNE turn. That's why areas like Cedar Key and Steinhatchee seem more under the gun right now as opposed to Panama City and Appalachicola.

Edit: Meant east of NHC track.

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS weaker by a good bit. Track doesn't look that different either. I'm thinking that John's outflow is really hurting it on the western side. You can tell on the simulated IR that it's kind of squished on that western side.

well, this is some good news anyway, and we need all the good news we can get with this.

Comes in at 966 mb into the big bend. It doesn't really get a core together until it gets into the gulf, compared to prior runs that had it tightening as it neared the Yucatan.

wow, that's quite a drop off in strength compared to earlier runs.

[Fancy1002]

Is this GFS run an oddball that should be disregarded, or a beginning of a new trend due to additional information?

[chris_fit]

18z GFS looks west of the 12z to me. And weaker.

[ronjon]

Whew! 18z GFS weaker than 12z and not much track change from 12z.

[DunedinDave]

18z GFS looks west of the 12z to me. And weaker.

It's almost identical to 12z in terms of track. But yes, weaker.

[ElectricStorm]

What's weird with this run is it has John at 995mb and keeps it weak and that is clearly not the case. Looks to me like the GFS has the center all over the place until it finally gets going in the gulf. I'd wait and see if 0z shows something similar. But certainly more realistic than those nuclear HAFS runs.

I'm going with a 110-120kt peak for now but we'll see where it's at once it actually gets into the gulf and avoids land interaction or not. If it gets going quicker it could be stronger than that

[ronjon]

18z GFS looks west of the 12z to me. And weaker.

It's almost identical to 12z in terms of track. But yes, weaker.

Ok let's see what 18z Euro now shows. If it shows no change from 12z then we can breathe a little easier.

[REDHurricane]

GFS weaker by a good bit. Track doesn't look that different either. I'm thinking that John's outflow is really hurting it on the western side. You can tell on the simulated IR that it's kind of squished on that western side.

well, this is some good news anyway, and we need all the good news we can get with this.

Eh I don't know if I totally buy it, 18z GFS doesn't show this system getting under 1000mb for 24+ hours and I'd guess that will probably happen 6-12 hours sooner than that. We'll see though

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

All about that entrance strength into the GOMEX... next 24 hours are going to be absolutely critical.

[MJGarrison]

18z GFS looks west of the 12z to me. And weaker.

It's almost identical to 12z in terms of track. But yes, weaker.

Ok let's see what 18z Euro now shows. If it shows no change from 12z then we can breathe a little easier.

What time is 18Z Euro?


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