ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

If I was in Tampa, I would be VERY concerned looking at the 18Z ICON. A large Cat 3 passing just offshore could push over 20 ft. of water into Tampa Bay. Just a small heading change on Wednesday could be very bad for the Tampa Bay area. ICON has done very well with Gulf storms this year. Let's hope it's not right with this one. However, if I lived in a surge zone around Tampa then I'd be thinking about potential evacuation Wednesday if the track shifts east.

100% agree.

And those of us from Englewood through Sarasota on north know the history of sudden right turns of these storms once they intensify.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If I was in Tampa, I would be VERY concerned looking at the 18Z ICON. A large Cat 3 passing just offshore could push over 20 ft. of water into Tampa Bay. Just a small heading change on Wednesday could be very bad for the Tampa Bay area. ICON has done very well with Gulf storms this year. Let's hope it's not right with this one. However, if I lived in a surge zone around Tampa then I'd be thinking about potential evacuation Wednesday if the track shifts east.

You almost always nail it with these systems. Roger that.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This was posted on todays local weather discussion for Atlanta (long term)

The long term forecast picks up on Wednesday afternoon. It leads off
with a weak low pressure out of the northwest that is dissipating
and is set to leave a stationary front over the northern part of the
CWA. Currently the NHC is tracking the storm to make landfall
sometime late on Thursday and push through the CWA during the early
morning on Friday and through the day. After that, it`s interaction
with the stationary front will be the big question.

They don't seem to think the trough is going to be that strong.

[WaveBreaking]

Seems like the LLC and the MLC are slightly revolving around each other in an attempt to stack, or maybe the old LLC is getting spat out and a new one is forming under the convection.

Bottom of the line is that 09L looks (in my eyes at least) better than it did this morning, and more centralized convection along with primitive banding features are evident.

[Jr0d]

The trend has been east for 36 hours. Anyone on the right side of the track within 100 miles needs to be preparing for a major hurricane, including Key West. NHC usually nails it, but even if they "nail" it, small deviations make huge differences extrapolated over time.

I can tell you the attitude in Key West right now is it will be well west of us and all we will see is outer rain bands and minor surge.

Hopefully we get spared the worst again, however the emergency planners need to decide early tomorrow if they will evacuate tourists. Only one road out so evacuating is a nightmare. They generally are extremely hesitant to issue evacuation orders for tourist, they will issue the order for mobile homes and live aboard vessels before they tell tourists to leave.

We got extremely lucky with Ian, just a little wobble east would have brought hurricane conditions and even worse surge. No evacuation orders were issued and we had tourist playing in the flood waters and high winds.

[GCANE]

Outflow starting to look good.
Popup thunderstorms all over CA now.
That will pump some juice into her tonight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seems like the LLC and the MLC are slightly revolving around each other in an attempt to stack, or maybe the old LLC is getting spat out and a new one is forming under the convection.

Bottom of the line is that 09L looks (in my eyes at least) better than it did this morning, and more centralized convection along with primitive banding features are evident.

https://i.imgur.com/vVBn6ZW.gif

Looks to me like the original one is breaking down and a new one is forming under the convection.

[GCANE]

Updraft anti-cyclone overhead.
More cylinders starting to fire.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z gfs struggling quite a bit more to get the storm tightened up, notably weaker downstream. Nice to look at but I don’t buy it. If this downtrend is reflected in the 0z runs when recon data is ingested that’s a different story though.

[SconnieCane]

Anyone banking on the presence of John to weaken this should bear in mind this thing is going to be like four times the size of John, and John will be making landfall and rapidly weakening in less than 24 hours from now.

[ConvergenceZone]

18z gfs struggling quite a bit more to get the storm tightened up, notably weaker downstream. Nice to look at but I don’t buy it. If this downtrend is reflected in the 0z runs when recon data is ingested that’s a different story though.

Yea I'm quite surprised the GFS is trending weaker now, but yea, maybe it just has to do with now long it expects the storm to stack and get itself together.

[eastcoastFL]

The trend has been east for 36 hours. Anyone on the right side of the track within 100 miles needs to be preparing for a major hurricane, including Key West. NHC usually nails it, but even if they "nail" it, small deviations make huge differences extrapolated over time.

I can tell you the attitude in Key West right now is it will be well west of us and all we will see is outer rain bands and minor surge.

Hopefully we get spared the worst again, however the emergency planners need to decide early tomorrow if they will evacuate tourists. Only one road out so evacuating is a nightmare. They generally are extremely hesitant to issue evacuation orders for tourist, they will issue the order for mobile homes and live aboard vessels before they tell tourists to leave.

We got extremely lucky with Ian, just a little wobble east would have brought hurricane conditions and even worse surge. No evacuation orders were issued and we had tourist playing in the flood waters and high winds.

I feel like you say this every storm. Key West is under the gun and nobody ever seems to care very much besides you. I'm glad you pay attention to the tropics.

[wx98]

They can say all they want that the forecast hasn't changed, it actually has. This is why i keep both the old graphic and new graphics open, so i can see the change with each update. Here is the 11am
https://ibb.co/9Tf77x7

and here is the 5pm
[url]https://ibb.co/L5dcvbD][/url] https://i.ibb.co/L5dcvbD/image.png

Clearly... slight west shift in their track.

Seems images aren't loading, but it's clear shift to the west slightly

Because of the way the track is drawn between forecast points. They may not actually change the track, but the changes in location of the points to update the times may cause perceived track changes with the interpolation between points.

[Pelicane]

Anyone banking on the presence of John to weaken this should bear in mind this thing is going to be like four times the size of John, and John will be making landfall and rapidly weakening in less than 24 hours from now.

Because this storm will be moving so quickly, just having a short 12 to 24 hour window where it takes it's time to develop can make a difference. The models had it dropping almost 10 mb every 6 hours on prior runs as it approached the coast. That can be a category difference in terms of landfalling intensity.

[wx98]

Don’t know why the NHC kept this at TD strength when recon clearly supports 40 kt.

I don't understand why they didn't give it the name Helene either. The recon shown a well defined llc but the same question was asked of 96L a few days ago.

Recon showed a more elongated center. Not yet “well-defined.”

[blueskies]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Right around the corner from you off Keene/Union in a non-evac zone. We should have a local impacts/preps thread going soon.

Could be 5-10 ft into Tampa Bay Thursday morning. Strong southerly flow into the bay east of the center. Very large wind field east of the track.

WXman57,

What are your thoughts on Boca Ciega Bay in Pinellas County?

Thanks

[DunedinDave]

I don’t like the trends today. I have an aunt and uncle on the Interbay peninsula. It is on one of the highest points though. And I have an aunt and some property located in Dunedin Isles. This might bring the surge I had once feared with Irma. We’ll see. Tampa Bay has been dodging bullets so far, maybe the streak can continue.

NGL — I don’t like Tampa being situated on the right edge of the cone - in the midrange forecast - of a rapidly strengthening hurricane being picked up by a trough. These things often hook right and this time Tampa is on the right. A few eastern shifts of that track will be really bad news for the Pinellas Suncoast down to Fort Myers.

Sounds like they could be my neighbors haha

The ICON scared me but the GFS made me sigh a little bit more relief. Not a lot...just a little.

[HippyFarmGirl]

I understand there are less populated areas and such that might offer "best case" for many. Here south of Perry with 2 direct hurricane hits in less than 2 years and lots of damage, a trend like the latest ICON means less for us maybe from Helene. But I am not wishing for Tampa to be sacked, or anywhere else. I wish people would quit saying good or bad when a trend develops... some folks are gonna be hit bad regardless, and we should strive to get the best guess out there so all can prepare without qualifying it as good in any way, really. TY.

Chiefland here. THIS. Damned if you say it out loud though. I just want our sweet Cedar Key to not have to take another hit this week.

[xironman]

Upper level winds abating over it as predicted by NHC, we may have a core by tonight's flight

[PavelGaborik10]

Still looks like a disorganized mess, hopefully this trend continues through tonight into the morning.