ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Torgo]

181800 1643N 08037W 8606 01384 0108 +146 +137 199041 044 041 041 00
181830 1642N 08036W 8581 01409 0115 +139 +129 196036 039 040 019 00
181900 1641N 08035W 8595 01397 0112 +145 +126 198035 036 039 012 00

If recon can find an organized LLC, this should go straight to Tropical Storm Status.

[chaser1]

thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.

I would urge you to review Wilma and it's impacts as it raced across Florida. 25mph forward speed, cleared Florida in just over 4 hours, left a huge swath of damage and power outages. Surge was a big deal, but the scale of the damage for a fast moving storm is what creates a huge problem.

Very true. I remember Wilma well. Certainly wasn't "Andrew" level damage but I took a heavy roof damage hit as many many others throughout the West Pembroke Pines area (W Broward County).

[Sciencerocks]

PTC 9 appears to be closed and with some respectable 44 knt flight level/ 41 smrf southwesterly winds in the southeastern quad it is probably close to tropical storm strength.

I wouldn't be shocked if Helen is named at 5pm

[Sciencerocks]

181800 1643N 08037W 8606 01384 0108 +146 +137 199041 044 041 041 00
181830 1642N 08036W 8581 01409 0115 +139 +129 196036 039 040 019 00
181900 1641N 08035W 8595 01397 0112 +145 +126 198035 036 039 012 00

If recon can find an organized LLC, this should go straight to Tropical Storm Status.

This looks pretty closed too me.



'd like to see a ne to sw pass to confirm the southwestern quad is closed but with these winds I'm about 95% sure of it.

[DunedinDave]

I have a bad feeling we're going to wake up to a beast tomorrow morning. For those who remember Ian in this area of the Caribbean, we went to bed with an ugly-looking storm and when we woke up in the morning, it blew up into a monster. I have a strong hunch we're in for that same scenario tonight.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have a bad feeling we're going to wake up to a beast tomorrow morning. For those who remember Ian in this area of the Caribbean, we went to bed with an ugly-looking storm and when we woke up in the morning, it blew up into a monster. I have a strong hunch we're in for that same scenario tonight.

Unlike Ian, the one thing that makes me very uncomfortable about this system is that there’s a non-zero chance that it shoots the Yucatán Channel cleanly and doesn’t really smash into western Cuba, allowing it more time over water

[Travorum]

I'd wait for a NE-SW pass to be sure but the current recon data sure does look like a tropical storm, albeit one that is tilted east to west. With that convection blowing up to the east of the LLC a center reformation could be likely though.

[chaser1]

PTC 9 appears to be closed and with some respectable 44 knt flight level/ 41 smrf southwesterly winds in the southeastern quad it is probably close to tropical storm strength.

I wouldn't be shocked if Helen is named at 5pm

Could well happen. I'd personally guess a T.D. in favor of issuing an initial T.S. suggesting the caveat of near-term future center relocation.

[StPeteMike]

Besides looking a little sloppy around the center, it’s definitely forming that dreaded shrimp look.

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe recon is finding evidence of an MLC and potential LLC relocation somewhere in that convection east of the elongated one. Pressure decreasing again as they fly north through that convection.

[TampaCE]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Just north of Downtown St. Pete, luckily closer to the interstate and away from the coast. Even if this goes to the Big Bend region, still think much of the coastal county will see 6ft surge.

I’m in Shore Acres and am already getting ready to leave. If this surge forecast plays out the entire neighborhood will be under several feet of water.

[Hurricaneman]

What tends to happen when shear lets up is either a center relocation under the convection or convection blows up over the center and off to the races. According to recon it seems the relocation could be underway

[Bigpapa]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Countryside area here. Close to US19 and Curlew

[aspen]

Closed center, 40-45 kt FL, ~40 kt SFMR. Looks like we have TS Helene. Yet another female name threatening the Gulf this year.

[Weatherboy1]

I'd wait for a NE-SW pass to be sure but the current recon data sure does look like a tropical storm, albeit one that is tilted east to west. With that convection blowing up to the east of the LLC a center reformation could be likely though.

I'm on board with the "tilted TS" thoughts here. And also, yes, we could see a center relocation. Last couple frames of visible satellite look to show the original vortex/LLC fizzling out to me. IF we get a relocation east, that's going to be an issue for ultimately landfall point IMO. In Sarasota and don't THINK Helene landfalls this far south. But not 100% out of the question, either.

[TallyTracker]

On the current path even parts of Naples and Marco Island is looking at 3-6 feet of water. This is shaping up to be a major surge event for the entire west coast of Florida. I imagine mandatory evacuations of Zone A will have to be called for pretty much the whole west coast.

[chaser1]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area).

Just north of Downtown St. Pete, luckily closer to the interstate and away from the coast. Even if this goes to the Big Bend region, still think much of the coastal county will see 6ft surge.

I’m in Shore Acres and am already getting ready to leave. If this surge forecast plays out the entire neighborhood will be under several feet of water.

For those of us local Florida folks - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... tart=17660

[HurricaneBelle]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Right around the corner from you off Keene/Union in a non-evac zone. We should have a local impacts/preps thread going soon.

[caneman]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Just north of Downtown St. Pete, luckily closer to the interstate and away from the coast. Even if this goes to the Big Bend region, still think much of the coastal county will see 6ft surge.

I’m in Shore Acres and am already getting ready to leave. If this surge forecast plays out the entire neighborhood will be under several feet of water.

Near Indian Rocks beach here. Pretty much the most Western part on the Penisula.

[3090]

I have a bad feeling we're going to wake up to a beast tomorrow morning. For those who remember Ian in this area of the Caribbean, we went to bed with an ugly-looking storm and when we woke up in the morning, it blew up into a monster. I have a strong hunch we're in for that same scenario tonight.

Did we forget Ida in this general location?