ATL: HELENE - Models

[Steve]

CMC (just getting to see it now) has that part 2 in 10 days depicted.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=240

[Kazmit]

Welcome back Wilma.

[aspen]

160-165 kt and 899 mbar on the HAFS-A. Welcome back Hurricane Rita.

[StPeteMike]

Looking at satellite image and the models, the GFS seems to be the only one closely depicting the current set-up of the trough.

Maybe it’s my untrained eye, but the rest seem to be weaker or slower than what is currently occurring.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF Trend… Decent E shift over W Cuba now…

[Lightning48]

Is the possibility of East shifts still possible?

[Blinhart]

Is the possibility of East shifts still possible?

I was thinking West Shifts with this system moving slower than expected.

[Woofde]

Posted with no comment

Is this the strongest ever HAFS run for the Atlantic? It's gotta be close, need recon data ingested to believe it but still...

[chaser1]

Posted with no comment
https://i.imgur.com/iOfIYp5.png

Good stuff LOL; Wind (barbs) seem a tad "slack" given the pressure though

[Travorum]

WOW, those 12Z HAFS runs are absolutely insane, HAFS-B ties the Atlantic low pressure record at 72 hours. Maybe one of the craziest model runs I've seen behind those Irma sub-900mb into Miami runs.

There's the caveat of uncertainty of hurricane models' accuracy before a singular area of vorticity has consolidated, but these still show just how favorable conditions in the gulf are right now.

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro with what looks like a slight E Shift. All the nasty weather on the east side. Hurricane force gusts well inland and in Tampa.

[WaveBreaking]

Posted with no comment
https://i.imgur.com/iOfIYp5.png

Is this the strongest ever HAFS run for the Atlantic? It's gotta be close, need recon data ingested to believe it but still...

Iirc some of the HAFS runs for Lee and the failed Invest 97L in October got down to the 890s, but none of them have shown 880s before.

Also, as a “fun” fact, if this run played out verbatim, then soon-to-be Helene would break Rita’s record of being the most intense GOM hurricane (Rita bottomed out at 895 mbar and 155kt winds).

[ROCK]

Not suprising. Its the magical loop current..We saw what it did to Charley with excellent conditions aloft. Not thinking sub 900 Rita-ish but it is concerning... JMO

[aspen]

Hurricane models are divided into two camps about the structural evolution of Helene.

The HWRF and HAFS-B show a pinhole eye with a developing outer eyewall. How soon this outer eyewall overpowers the pinhole varies between the two. The HWRF has it destroy Helene very quickly, the HAFS-B…do not lol.

The HMON and HAFS-B both show more normal-sized cores without significant outer eyewalls. Both still manage to hit sub-920 mbar pressures.

[ElectricStorm]

Once again though keep in mind the HAFS struggle before a TC actually develops so while it's fun to look at nuclear runs like these you can't really put any stock in them

[ConvergenceZone]

I've said this before, but thank god this storm will be moving at an absolute lightning speed. It's going to be over as quick as it starts. Talk about a quit hit system.

[DunedinDave]

I've said this before, but thank god this storm will be moving at an absolute lightning speed. It's going to be over as quick as it starts. Talk about a quit hit system.

Yup. Charley was like that. Was moving at like 25mph when it hit Port Charlotte. Goes to show you just because it's moving fast doesn't mean it can't cause a ton of damage.

Only thing that worries me about "projected" NE turns in the Gulf is the sharpness of those turns. They always seem to go more right than forecast. I mean, who can forget Ian? I'll never forget the meteorologist coming on the morning before saying it's started its turn early. And this is basically the same exact track as Ian when it was entering the Gulf except maybe 50-75 miles West.

[SFLcane]

Posted with no comment
https://i.imgur.com/iOfIYp5.png

Is this the strongest ever HAFS run for the Atlantic? It's gotta be close, need recon data ingested to believe it but still...

Thankfully that is 100% nonsense very far anchored from reality.

[CronkPSU]

while i generally agree with y'all about it being a good thing moving away faster, it also means more widespread damage further inland...

like those who mentioned Charlie, we had some of the worst damage ever here in central florida all the way up to Jax from a storm that landed hundreds of miles away

[ConvergenceZone]

Posted with no comment
https://i.imgur.com/iOfIYp5.png

Is this the strongest ever HAFS run for the Atlantic? It's gotta be close, need recon data ingested to believe it but still...

Thankfully that is 100% nonsense very far anchored from reality.

Yea it pulls this crap with almost every storm lol. I never take it serous to be honest, just look at it as fantasy entertainment.