ATL: HELENE - Models

[DunedinDave]

All those forecasts will mean nothing if this does not form where they are hoping it will
Seems real far east at the moment

It's about a full degree east of where the NHC has it. GFS, though, initialized this further east than the others so apparently they saw this jump coming.

[BobHarlem]

Wild to see Wxman57 forecasting a 75kt cat 1 in the discussion thread while the hurricane models cook up cat 5s. Intensity is so tricky.

How did he do with Michael? Simliar mixed messages when it was in the West Caribbean.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Its still early and far away. The cone is gonna move back and forth.

[chris_fit]

ECMWF-AIFS looks to have a Cedar Key landfall around 1 am on Friday.

Here's the 06z ECMWF AI @90hrs

[CycloysisNegative]

Wild to see Wxman57 forecasting a 75kt cat 1 in the discussion thread while the hurricane models cook up cat 5s. Intensity is so tricky.

How did he do with Michael? Simliar mixed messages when it was in the West Caribbean.

Sheared TS into the Panhandle.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Today’s the most important day as far as track goes. The additional shear from a much stronger TS John is causing LLC formation more east than predicted. If it’s any consolation, that’ll add more land interaction to the mix (Cuba).

[REDHurricane]

As future Helene continues forming more to the east than expected, I'm starting to wonder (not saying I necessarily think it will) if this might actually take an Ian-like path and go over western Cuba before hooking to the right of the forecasted track again

[DunedinDave]

Now that they have a good feel on where center is relocating and where that low is going to be, I think the 12z and 18z models today are going to be so critical. I think by tonight we will have a good idea of who is going to be most impacted. I mean, we will be talking 72 hours from potential landfall already so they have to come to some consensus by tonight and I think they will.

[chris_fit]

The German ICON model broke the East trend with the 06z run. 00z was almost all the way to Tampa, 06z to Apalachee Bay, so a good shift W. Really interested to see if 12Z continues to shift W. This model did well with many storms, like Francine and Ian.

[CronkPSU]

Its still early and far away. The cone is gonna move back and forth.

not really that early nor far away...we are like less than 72 hours away from possible landfall depending on which model verifies

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Its still early and far away. The cone is gonna move back and forth.

not really that early nor far away...we are like less than 72 hours away from possible landfall depending on which model verifies

did not realize it was such a fast mover

[toad strangler]

The German ICON model broke the East trend with the 06z run. 00z was almost all the way to Tampa, 06z to Apalachee Bay, so a good shift W. Really interested to see if 12Z continues to shift W. This model did well with many storms, like Francine and Ian.

I liked what Steve just mentioned alluding to looks can be deceiving. What looks to the eye as our "center" being fairly E of forecast might be mid level or shear influenced .... I have seen this countless times now where it looks like a significant shift to the east or west from afar and in the end the models have this down fairly close.

[caneman]

The German ICON model broke the East trend with the 06z run. 00z was almost all the way to Tampa, 06z to Apalachee Bay, so a good shift W. Really interested to see if 12Z continues to shift W. This model did well with many storms, lik
e Francine and Ian.

It's been all over the place with this one though with massive shifts. Thus far the GFS has been most consistent with this so we will see.

[Lightning48]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

[caneman]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

That won't be confirmed til recon later today, however, NHC may shed some light at 11 am

[CronkPSU]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

not sure we can honestly say there has been a center...only where models thought it would form...which is happening now

[Blown Away]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

No, just opinions, like mine!

Official 8am was 17.2N/81.8W…

[Steve]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

No. NHC should have an update out in the next 15 or so minutes with where they believe the center is.

[robbielyn]

PTC 9 will be up at 11am per NHC

[ROCK]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

No. NHC should have an update out in the next 15 or so minutes with where they believe the center is.

Some of these early cycle models show a fairly robust system. A far cry from a few days of ago of sheared TS. I think if I was in the Tampa area I would be preparing a little more rapidly today. 72hrs is not a lot of time. JMO of course. Actually any GOMer should be prepared every season.