ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beer Belly]

The center of circulation is pretty easy to identify on windy vs Sat images:
https://www.windy.com/?16.689,-84.990,6 ... ,m:eeoadQe

[chris_fit]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2024092312, , BEST, 0, 172N, 818W, 25, 1004, DB

Probably doesn't mean too much without a well defined center, but this is on the eastern edge of 06z guidance.

[Category5Kaiju]

Either outflow from TS John or displacement of the ULAC appears to be causing 97L to form more east than expected. This is why the GFS/Euro has shifted east. Tampa needs to be on alert for these trends to continue.

I do somewhat think that John may at least be playing a role in this, given it looks to be a very healthy, intensifying system. Would be interesting to hypothetically know how things for 97L may be different had John been absent.

[sponger]

Wow! Well East of forecast points. Lets hope Tampas luck has not run out. NOAA flights begin this afternoon so this evenings model runs should have a good handle on track. Good luck all!

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2024092312, , BEST, 0, 172N, 818W, 25, 1004, DB

[Blown Away]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2024092312, , BEST, 0, 172N, 818W, 25, 1004, DB

Luis we’ve been starring at these satellite loops for decades…

[kevin]

It does look to me like outflow from John is pushing 97L further east. As 97L consolidates further it should be able to withstand this better so it won't continue for long. Since models in general seem to have underestimated John and are catching up now, this could be a reason why some of the models like GFS are also shifting more east. If this hypothesis is true, than the very healthy look of John atm (healthier than even the most recent models indicated) could mean that we'll get more east shifts. On the other hand, HAFS-B seems to be the most aggressive hurricane model in terms of John in the short-term and it doesn't show a significant east bias with 97L in its most recent run. So the conclusion is, who knows.

[skillz305]

East coast central Florida here. Just got wind of this system being alive. Watching cautiously cuz it seems east of guidance as of now IMO.

[verruckt]

As an OG Florida man, with ~72 hours to potential impacts, I think it would be wise for anyone in Florida to start preparing if they haven't already. I'm talking topping off your tank, checking your gensets / fuel for gensets, and getting topped off on any food and water.

All it takes is 24 more hours and a news cycle and this place will be nuts with all the newcomers to the state. I can't even imagine how wild it will be.

You don't need to be within the impact area to lose power, have flooding, etc.

[StPeteMike]

As an OG Florida man, with ~72 hours to potential impacts, I think it would be wise for anyone in Florida to start preparing if they haven't already. I'm talking topping off your tank, checking your gensets / fuel for gensets, and getting topped off on any food and water.

All it takes is 24 more hours and a news cycle and this place will be nuts with all the newcomers to the state. I can't even imagine how wild it will be.

You don't need to be within the impact area to lose power, have flooding, etc.

My plans during my lunch break. I saw how crazy it got with Irma, want to be ahead of the madness.

[Frank P]

The system appears to be moving wnw as best I can tell.

[REDHurricane]

LLC getting better defined as I type and now it's starting to pull in the new convective bursts that are popping up in a shrimp-like pattern around it, this should easily be a tropical storm by the end of the day and a hurricane by the end of the day Tuesday.

[StormPyrate]

Sure seem like it is organizing well east of the stated location

[Blown Away]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2024092312, , BEST, 0, 172N, 818W, 25, 1004, DB

https://i.imgur.com/o8mkYZ5.png

Again, IMO the LLC is a full degree ENE @17.5N/80.5…

[hipshot]

The center of circulation is pretty easy to identify on windy vs Sat images:
https://www.windy.com/?16.689,-84.990,6 ... ,m:eeoadQe

Wow, you sure can. I've used Windy before but not for this app.

[DunedinDave]

Looks to me the center is around 17.2 N and 80.8 W unless my eyes are deceiving me. I think the NHC had it at 81.8 W so it's a full degree to the east of where the NHC has it.

[Blown Away]

IMO Cayman going to get some 97L/PTC TS winds…

[SouthFLTropics]

IMO Cayman going to get some 97L/PTC TS winds…

Agreed... I would expect TS Warnings to go up in the Cayman Islands on the first advisory.

[cheezyWXguy]

Now that visible satellite is coming into play, I can see the area the nhc is highlighting. Hard to tell if the circulation to the east is an mlc or if it’s the main llc and the nhc area is just an eddy revolving around it. Suspecting the former for now, but wherever consistent convection maintains will likely have some influence on where this consolidates.

[cycloneye]

Best Track changed to 09L. PTC comming shortly.

AL, 09, 2024092312, , BEST, 0, 172N, 818W, 25, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE,