ATL: HELENE - Models

[DunedinDave]

HMON 06z seems to be much further west this run at least through 72 hours. I mean pretty significant shift. Might be a sign of a trend back to the west?

And HWRF is so far decent ways East of the 00z run through 45 hours.... It's all about where that center consolidates.

https://i.imgur.com/jygNy8z.gif

Yeah but it looks like HWRF then really takes it pretty far west. Almost a WNW track through the channel and into the southern gulf. While the operational models were trending east, the Hurricane models seem to be trending more west this morning.

[StPeteMike]

How accurate are the hurricane models generally intensity-wise? Asking because it seems all of them have either a high-end Cat 4 or a Cat 5 Hurricane.

The HMON/HWRF are normally pretty good. And, hate to say it, there’s been times both of underestimated intensity. But there’s also been times that it has overdone it.

With perfect conditions until it gets picked up by the trough, areas from Mexico Beach to Port Charlotte should at least make sure supplies and such are together for a major.

[underthwx]

HMON 06z seems to be much further west this run at least through 72 hours. I mean pretty significant shift. Might be a sign of a trend back to the west?

And HWRF is so far decent ways East of the 00z run through 45 hours.... It's all about where that center consolidates.

https://i.imgur.com/jygNy8z.gif

Yeah but it looks like HWRF then really takes it pretty far west. Almost a WNW track through the channel and into the southern gulf. While the operational models were trending east, the Hurricane models seem to be trending more west this morning.

Once a definitive center is identified....the models will respond as we all know.....I think today will provide a much clearer picture for all yall in potential impacts areas....

[DunedinDave]

And HWRF is so far decent ways East of the 00z run through 45 hours.... It's all about where that center consolidates.

https://i.imgur.com/jygNy8z.gif

Yeah but it looks like HWRF then really takes it pretty far west. Almost a WNW track through the channel and into the southern gulf. While the operational models were trending east, the Hurricane models seem to be trending more west this morning.

Once a definitive center is identified....the models will respond as we all know.....I think today will provide a much clearer picture for all yall in potential impacts areas....

Agree.
Regardless, if even the HWRF and HMON tracks pan out and it goes 50-100 miles west of Tampa and moving NNE, the storm surge from a cat 5 Hurricane onto land that is already extremely saturated and prone to flooding is scary to fathom. I live on the water and one little thunderstorm flooded my road the other day. Throw 5 more inches of rain and a 7-10 ft storm surge and I am not excited.

[Stormlover70]

This GFS run is already bad news for Tampa Bay due to angle of approach, and any further East shifts are going to be devastating if they verify.

Even if it shifts south of tampa, they are still in big trouble on these runs, lets see. St Marks to Naples, I thought I would be carving off the south by now but instead expanded from fort meyers, these intense systems want to stay to the right. Newbies: do not ever discount storm surge, its easily the most dangerous part of a hurricane. You want stick around for a 5 with no surge, go for it, stay low. You have storm surge predicted, get away.

100%! RUN from the water (surge) HIDE from the wind. That being said I'm at 28.3 Lat and 82.66 Long and I'm scared. Don't know whether to start the day moving all my stuff in and tying the chicken coop down or wait until tomorrow.

hey neighbor. Long time no see.

[Lightning48]

When do you all think a definitive center will be established ?

[underthwx]

When do you all think a definitive center will be established ?

Recon later today should help with identifying a true center...with 97L in its formative stages...I venture to guess by this time tomorrow....there should be a much better idea of where the center is located.....

[chris_fit]

Notable E shift on the 06Z EPS vs 00z.

00z:


06z:

[jlauderdal]

How accurate are the hurricane models generally intensity-wise? Asking because it seems all of them have either a high-end Cat 4 or a Cat 5 Hurricane.

Intensity forecasting is mysterious at best, prepare for at least 1 category higher than predicted in your area. Bottom line, this looks like a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

12z hurricane models tracks.

[chris_fit]

12z hurricane models tracks.

https://i.imgur.com/cb4aXD3.png

This map definitely looks better for Tampa. Just don't look at the EPS or GEFS - those are a bit more anxious.

[DunedinDave]

The good news is this thing's going to be cranking...some 20-25 mph prolly. So it'll be in and out pretty fast.

[REDHurricane]

Well this is certainly interesting to wake up to

[Kazmit]

Wild to see Wxman57 forecasting a 75kt cat 1 in the discussion thread while the hurricane models cook up cat 5s. Intensity is so tricky.

[REDHurricane]

Wild to see Wxman57 forecasting a 75kt cat 1 in the discussion thread while the hurricane models cook up cat 5s. Intensity is so tricky.

Sounds like an instance of forecasting with your heart over your mind because there's no way this will max out as a cat 1 unfortunately

[StPeteMike]

ECMWF-AIFS looks to have a Cedar Key landfall around 1 am on Friday.

[Kazmit]

Wild to see Wxman57 forecasting a 75kt cat 1 in the discussion thread while the hurricane models cook up cat 5s. Intensity is so tricky.

Sounds like an instance of forecasting with your heart over your mind because there's no way this will max out as a cat 1 unfortunately

Not a bad idea to be conservative on the early forecasts to not cause unnecessary panic. The NHC does the same thing. But with current trends, I do agree that we’ll likely see something stronger than that.

[Steve]

Wild to see Wxman57 forecasting a 75kt cat 1 in the discussion thread while the hurricane models cook up cat 5s. Intensity is so tricky.

Sounds like an instance of forecasting with your heart over your mind because there's no way this will max out as a cat 1 unfortunately

Not a bad idea to be conservative on the early forecasts to not cause unnecessary panic. The NHC does the same thing. But with current trends, I do agree that we’ll likely see something stronger than that.

I agree. Here are the current intensity models (always grains of salt to be taken with them of course)

Early Cycle 12z Intensity


Late Cycle 06z Experimental Intensity

[StormPyrate]

All those forecasts will mean nothing if this does not form where they are hoping it will
Seems real far east at the moment

[Steve]

All those forecasts will mean nothing if this does not form where they are hoping it will
Seems real far east at the moment

Probably midlevel energy and shear influenced at least for now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid