ATL: HELENE - Models

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon, landfall near St. Pete

[jfk08c]

TT still has 18z, how do you get such information?!?

pivotal weather

You won’t see that every day. Difference is cut off low interaction is way farther south. Plausible but a little out of the blue.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

I think it's more the high pressure off the east coast of Florida not extending as far west. I'm sure the trough is correlated with that in some way, though

[DunedinDave]

ICON 0z has that low pressure dipping all the way SE into Alabama. That’s aggressive. That’s what causes the hard right turn into Tampa Bay. If other models agree with that low pushing that far east, the west coast is in trouble.

[HurricaneBelle]

Not thrilled about these models ending in "ON" bringing it right to the Tampa Bay area.

[DunedinDave]

If there’s any good news about 0z ICON it has it at only 974 before Tampa landfall. Not the 930s like some of the Hurricane models.

[jfk08c]

HMON might have not been so crazy after all. Curious to see if we get any significant eastern shifts in future runs. The angle of approach is a nightmare because any slight shifts one way or another will change who gets what impacts dramatically

[Steve]

Here is ICON’s rainfall estimates. Press play. Heavy rains all the way up to WV.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[psyclone]

Well that is extra spicy.

[StPeteMike]

If there’s any good news about 0z ICON it has it at only 974 before Tampa landfall. Not the 930s like some of the Hurricane models.

If I remember correctly from the precursor thread before this was designated an invest, ICON is good for track but drops the ball on intensity.

Someone can confirm or deny if my memory is correct.

[DunedinDave]

If there’s any good news about 0z ICON it has it at only 974 before Tampa landfall. Not the 930s like some of the Hurricane models.

If I remember correctly from the precursor thread before this was designated an invest, ICON is good for track but drops the ball on intensity.

Someone can confirm or deny if my memory is correct.

Probably the reason for a weaker system is it goes at lightning speed. We don’t even have a low yet and it’s calling for landfall in 84-96 hours. That’s why I’m a little skeptical of a super strong system. I don’t know if it has the time to ramp up if we’re talking about a Thursday landfall.

[ineedsnow]

Icon EPS also took a big shift east

[WxEp]

TT still has 18z, how do you get such information?!?

pivotal weather

You won’t see that every day. Difference is cut off low interaction is way farther south. Plausible but a little out of the blue.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Not entirely out of the blue as the 00z NAM (using only for the large scale pattern, not storm track) made a similar adjustment.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS a couple mb stronger so far in the short term, down to 988mb at hour 48

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs, gets into the gulf already knocking on Major here, with a high end cat 2.


Already heading to strong cat 3 here and east of 18z.


And then steps into Cat 4 territory here, again east of 18z.


Heading toward the big bend this run

[Fancy1002]

0z GFS a couple mb stronger so far in the short term, down to 988mb at hour 48

It’s also even more southeast.

[Pelicane]

If you compare this run to previous ones, the trough is a little quicker heading east.

[DunedinDave]

That trough is really digging down much more than it was earlier today.

[Fancy1002]

Why do I have a feeling that this run is eyeing Tampa

[Poonwalker]

Not liking the trend here.

[jfk08c]

Similar setup to the latest ICON. Trough a little quicker and digging deeper with high pressure backing off the EC of Florida. Smelling a pretty good east shift on this one