ATL: HELENE - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

I must not know how to configure the EURO on the models page correctly, because when I run it, it doesn't seem like it shows the land masses correctly, for example this is out almost 3 days, but I can't see where the USA mainland is. Is this the wrong link to correctly see the EURO model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092212&fh=72

[robbielyn]

i’m calling near or at PC. i think it will hv a cut off low and after landfall go west around that low. i lived there back in the 80s glad im further down the peninsula

[USTropics]

I must not know how to configure the EURO on the models page correctly, because when I run it, it doesn't seem like it shows the land masses correctly, for example this is out almost 3 days, but I can't see where the USA mainland is. Is this the wrong link to correctly see the EURO model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092212&fh=72

You can look at the global models with the same perimeter as a nested hurricane model. If you are looking at the hurricane models (HWRF/HMON/HAFS) and click over to the ECMWF/GFS it will default to this view for Tropical Tidbits. Just remove the region from the URL

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092212&fh=72

[jfk08c]

I must not know how to configure the EURO on the models page correctly, because when I run it, it doesn't seem like it shows the land masses correctly, for example this is out almost 3 days, but I can't see where the USA mainland is. Is this the wrong link to correctly see the EURO model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092212&fh=72

It's a weird bug going on. It's tracking 10E on that run. If you go to the end of the run and switch to 10E on the Euro hurricane run, it'll be in the same place. Moves up Mexico towards the Western US

[ConvergenceZone]

I must not know how to configure the EURO on the models page correctly, because when I run it, it doesn't seem like it shows the land masses correctly, for example this is out almost 3 days, but I can't see where the USA mainland is. Is this the wrong link to correctly see the EURO model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092212&fh=72

You can look at the global models with the same perimeter as a nested hurricane model. If you are looking at the hurricane models (HWRF/HMON/HAFS) and click over to the ECMWF/GFS it will default to this view for Tropical Tidbits. Just remove the region from the URL

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092212&fh=72

okay that helps. thanks a bunch

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1838023768121204841

[ConvergenceZone]

I must not know how to configure the EURO on the models page correctly, because when I run it, it doesn't seem like it shows the land masses correctly, for example this is out almost 3 days, but I can't see where the USA mainland is. Is this the wrong link to correctly see the EURO model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092212&fh=72

It's a weird bug going on. It's tracking 10E on that run. If you go to the end of the run and switch to 10E on the Euro hurricane run, it'll be in the same place. Moves up Mexico towards the Western US

that explains it. I kept thinking, what am I doing wrong on the models page lol.

[ronjon]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1838023768121204841

Looks like a slight shift east from 12z. Will be interesting if the Euro tracks toward the ICON at 00z.

[NDG]

No wonder hurricane models are so aggressive, SHIPS shows shear less than 10 knots almost all the way to landfall with plenty of moisture and SSTs in the 30-31 deg C range.

[DunedinDave]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1838023768121204841

That things making a bee-line for Horseshoe Beach again. That poor place.

[AutoPenalti]

Angle of Approach will also be important considering the shape of the peninsula, models are going to have a hard time with this.

[TomballEd]

Interesting how the ensemble spread has decreased, before an actual center forms. The starting location on the 18Z EPS are pretty close to where the analyzed best guess center is. Or these could shift a bit E if the deeper convection does develop the primary LLC.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/1838049221011730773

[psyclone]

Re 18z eps: most of those land in Bay, Gulf or Franklin County. Very tightly clustered

[ineedsnow]

0z ICON looking like it will be east of 18z

[ineedsnow]

0z Icon landfall near Tampa Bay

[StPeteMike]

0z Icon landfall near Tampa Bay

TT still has 18z, how do you get such information?!?

[ineedsnow]

0z Icon landfall near Tampa Bay

TT still has 18z, how do you get such information?!?

pivotal weather

[StPeteMike]

0z Icon landfall near Tampa Bay

TT still has 18z, how do you get such information?!?

pivotal weather

Thanks! Off to bed with this information though I want to see where the GFS and Euro start showing.

[Steve]

0z Icon landfall near Tampa Bay

TT still has 18z, how do you get such information?!?

pivotal weather

You won’t see that every day. Difference is cut off low interaction is way farther south. Plausible but a little out of the blue.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=