ATL: HELENE - Models

[aspen]

HAFS-B so far is weaker and slightly west of the HAFS-A. Makes a brief landfall on the tip of the Yucatan as a 55-65 kt TS/C1. Overall structure looks weaker and it takes a minor hit from the Yucatan.

[AnnularCane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1287536766877700178/Screenshot_205.png?ex=66f1e78e&is=66f0960e&hm=21693aab7f0bd48d6ffaea198c0181c2fb474960046b0a0a382cd70bebe2f476&

Not what you want to see on the GEFS. Most of these members are very strong.

What's causing that westward bend after landfall? They usually curve northeast at some point.

[robbielyn]

18 gefs ensembles show western panhandle panama city in the cross hairs for now

[DunedinDave]

18 gefs ensembles show western panhandle panama city in the cross hairs for now

That’s surprising because they had been all over the Fla west coast up until this morning. I wonder why the sudden shift if the NAM is showing that low moving more east than expected.

[Teban54]

How is HWRF showing a 950 mb storm with only 65 kt winds?

[Fancy1002]

HWRF is off to the races.

[ConvergenceZone]

How is HWRF showing a 950 mb storm with only 65 kt winds?

https://i.postimg.cc/jjgS01Rr/image.png

That's just a printing error

[gatorcane]

HMON headed for a peninsula landfall. 942MB at 102 hours.

[Torgo]

How is HWRF showing a 950 mb storm with only 65 kt winds?

https://i.postimg.cc/jjgS01Rr/image.png

I don't even pay attention to the winds on the hurricane models. They always seem to be off.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON, just north of Tampa. OUCH. That'll push some storm surge into Tampa Bay.

[USTropics]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1287536766877700178/Screenshot_205.png?ex=66f1e78e&is=66f0960e&hm=21693aab7f0bd48d6ffaea198c0181c2fb474960046b0a0a382cd70bebe2f476&

Not what you want to see on the GEFS. Most of these members are very strong.

What's causing that westward bend after landfall? They usually curve northeast at some point.

There ends up being some ridging that builds in to the north, so movement is dictated by the ULL to the west (it pivots around this as highlighted in pink):



The upper level pattern gives a better depiction of the steering:

[caneman]

18 gefs ensembles show western panhandle panama city in the cross hairs for now

I see an equal amount east of apalchicola as I do west.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF at 72 hours shows an easterly component to its movement also and is down to 934MB

[DunedinDave]

Please tell me the HMON model isn’t reliable. I see a 940 mb storm with the eye wall slamming Pinellas County.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON into Citrus County at 942MB in 102 hours.

[jfk08c]

Please tell me the HMON model isn’t reliable. I see a 940 mb storm with the eye wall slamming Pinellas County.

I mean it outperformed all the other ones last year in 3 to 5 day forecasts. But I wouldn't take it as gospel, especially the very first run

[psyclone]

Please tell me the HMON model isn’t reliable. I see a 940 mb storm with the eye wall slamming Pinellas County.

We average 10-20 cat 3 or higher model storms per year.

[Teban54]

Please tell me the HMON model isn’t reliable. I see a 940 mb storm with the eye wall slamming Pinellas County.

I mean it outperformed all the other ones last year in 3 to 5 day forecasts. But I wouldn't take it as gospel, especially the very first run

The silver lining is that, while HMON (and other hurricane models) are great at intensity forecasts, they're usually subpar for track forecasts IIRC.

[DunedinDave]

Jesus…HWRF doing HWRF things. Damn 930 and dropping.

[DunedinDave]

Please tell me the HMON model isn’t reliable. I see a 940 mb storm with the eye wall slamming Pinellas County.

I mean it outperformed all the other ones last year in 3 to 5 day forecasts. But I wouldn't take it as gospel, especially the very first run

The silver lining is that, while HMON (and other hurricane models) are great at intensity forecasts, they're usually subpar for track forecasts IIRC.

That is good. *sighing a breath of relief*