ATL: HELENE - Models

[robbielyn]

Curious for those who remember…what were the factors that pushed Ian so hard to the right? Was it a trough like the one forecast to come down into the SE? If so where was that positioned?

i’m a try this again. Via research accuweather said that there was an upper level feature that was to be more west to east which wouldn’t have steered Ian moving it more north into tampa bay. but instead the upper level feature dipped down into the tennessee valley giving a northwesterly nudge on the upper level steering flow of Ian pushing it south and east.

[DunedinDave]

Curious for those who remember…what were the factors that pushed Ian so hard to the right? Was it a trough like the one forecast to come down into the SE? If so where was that positioned?

i’m a try this again. Via research accuweather said that there was an upper level feature that was to be more west to east which wouldn’t have steered Ian moving it more north into tampa bay. but instead the upper level feature dipped down into the tennessee valley giving a northwesterly nudge on the upper level steering flow of Ian pushing it south and east.

Thanks. That's what I'm kind of worried about here. Just seems like storms coming up from south of Cuba always get a bigger shove to the right than models show. I am just wondering if there's a chance we could see that same situation play out here from the same factors in play.

[Fancy1002]

Compared to 12z, so far is slightly weaker, but also slightly more southeast. Interesting to see where it goes.

[robbielyn]

Curious for those who remember…what were the factors that pushed Ian so hard to the right? Was it a trough like the one forecast to come down into the SE? If so where was that positioned?

i’m a try this again. Via research accuweather said that there was an upper level feature that was to be more west to east which wouldn’t have steered Ian moving it more north into tampa bay. but instead the upper level feature dipped down into the tennessee valley giving a northwesterly nudge on the upper level steering flow of Ian pushing it south and east.

Thanks. That's what I'm kind of worried about here. Just seems like storms coming up from south of Cuba always get a bigger shove to the right than models show. I am just wondering if there's a chance we could see that same situation play out here from the same factors in play.

no i don’t think so. this dip in the trough is way west in arkansas and if cuts off we r looking at panama city and/or points west like destin.

[pcolaman]

To me it looks like the GFS was to far east when it initially started it's run

[Kazmit]

18z GFS doubles down. Strong cat 4 slightly further east.

[BobHarlem]

Port St. Joe/Apalachicola

[Fancy1002]

That’s a pretty sudden speed up from 90 to 96

[CrazyC83]

Tallahassee has not had a serious higher-end hurricane hit in more than 130 years. It's got a ton of trees so it would be potentially catastrophic there if that track holds (landfall just east of Apalachicola).

[Keldeo1997]

Not what you want to see on the GEFS. Most of these members are very strong.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[chris_fit]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/97L_gefs_latest.png

Not what you want to see on the GEFS. Most of these members are very strong.

Isn't that the 12z? 18z running now.

[BobHarlem]

Moves so fast that it remains in the high 960s/low 970s over Atlanta. Lots of well Inland impacts on this run with an eyewall scar all the way may up to the N Georgia Mountains.

[jfk08c]

Does anyone know a site that stores archives of model runs? I feel like that'd be a ton of storage space but i'm curious about looking into upper air patterns in previous years

[ScottNAtlanta]

Moves so fast that it remains in the high 960s/low 970s over Atlanta. Lots of well Inland impacts on this run with an eyewall scar all the way may up to the N Georgia Mountains.

https://i.imgur.com/TMXfGcj.png

Yeah, and with an old frontal boundary in the area this will squeeze out even more rain. Glad I cleaned out my gutters this week

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1287536766877700178/Screenshot_205.png?ex=66f1e78e&is=66f0960e&hm=21693aab7f0bd48d6ffaea198c0181c2fb474960046b0a0a382cd70bebe2f476&

Not what you want to see on the GEFS. Most of these members are very strong.

Theres a lot of pink and blue on that map. Not a good feeling for Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

FYI:

The hurricane models are now running. HAFS and HWRF are processing.

[jfk08c]

Hurricane models running now. Expecting initialization to be all over

[aspen]

First HAFS-A run has a Cat 1 by the time it reaches the Yucatan Channel.

[MetsIslesNoles]

Wow.

https://i.imgur.com/A0TCFP9.jpeg

That's vomit inducing for Tallahassee.