How many named storms will form in October?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 01, 2024 10:28 pm

The October poll will close for voting on September 30th at 11:28 PM EDT. This time, I ajusted the poll to allow members who may want to change their vote to do so.

Teban54 · #2 Postby **Teban54** » Sun Sep 01, 2024 10:31 pm

And of course, the very first response was "None will form" :lol:

Ubuntwo · #3 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Sun Sep 01, 2024 10:37 pm

Teban54 wrote:And of course, the very first response was "None will form"

Now two! I'm sitting at five for now. In isolation, conditions for October look very good.

TomballEd · #4 Postby **TomballEd** » Sun Sep 01, 2024 11:48 pm

I say 4, after the 3 or 4 of September, 2024 ends below the season average of 14 to 15 NS.

Any October storm that forms S of 25N could menace Florida. If any form. At least a couple of occluded lows N of 35N will get names.

#5 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Sep 02, 2024 12:46 am

Why did I go with 4 named storms for October? Because part of me wanted to go with 8, yet a voice in my head kept repeating "ZERO".

CFLHurricane · #6 Postby **CFLHurricane** » Mon Sep 02, 2024 12:56 pm

I think three storms will form as the midlatitudes cool thus restoring the balance that necessitates tropical storms to transport heat poleward.

MHC Tracking · #7 Postby **MHC Tracking** » Mon Sep 02, 2024 1:44 pm

Why is "none will form" leading? :think:

SconnieCane · #8 Postby **SconnieCane** » Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:21 pm

MHC Tracking wrote:Why is "none will form" leading?

Because so many of us have busted with our bullish picks for August and likely September, too.

MHC Tracking · #9 Postby **MHC Tracking** » Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:37 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
MHC Tracking wrote:Why is "none will form" leading?

Because so many of us have busted with our bullish picks for August and likely September, too.

Fair enough, I suppose "just wait two more weeks" loses its effectiveness after a certain point

WeatherBoy2000 · #10 Postby **WeatherBoy2000** » Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:48 pm

I chose eight or more because someone had to

FireRat · #11 Postby **FireRat** » Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:51 pm

6....
2024 might just end up being a back-loaded season after all.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 16, 2024 11:18 am

If you have not voted yet on this october poll, you have until the 30th when it closes.

#13 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Sep 16, 2024 11:33 am

FireRat wrote:6....
2024 might just end up being a back-loaded season after all.

Come this December, will the last one of us to leave the campground still waiting for a final surge of tropical development please snub all fires, pick up any beer cans, and stow any remaining marshmallows & hot dogs :tailgate:

FireRat · #14 Postby **FireRat** » Tue Sep 17, 2024 9:18 pm

chaser1 wrote:
FireRat wrote:6....
2024 might just end up being a back-loaded season after all.

Come this December, will the last one of us to leave the campground still waiting for a final surge of tropical development please snub all fires, pick up any beer cans, and stow any remaining marshmallows & hot dogs

I'm probably throwing in the towel in early November.
Still very intrigued by what Late Sept & Oct will bring lol

Stormlover70 · #15 Postby **Stormlover70** » Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:10 am

#16 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 22, 2024 3:09 pm

3 - all of which become hurricanes, 2 of them major.

canes92 · #17 Postby **canes92** » Sun Sep 22, 2024 4:19 pm

MarioProtVI · #18 Postby **MarioProtVI** » Sun Sep 22, 2024 4:31 pm

I’m gonna go with 5/3/2. October looks like it may simply be a delayed September peak, and ensembles are going nuts right now and the GFS is definitely smelling the favorable MJO coming in.

Teban54 · #19 Postby **Teban54** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 8:10 am

This poll will close in about 14 hours. I just casted my vote for 4 storms, though that is probably conservative.

NHC thinks that the 10 people who voted "none will form" have at least 80% chance of busting.

ElectricStorm · #20 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 4:50 pm

Going with 4, with one of them being a major