ATL: HELENE - Models

[mcheer23]

Model thread

[cycloneye]

[Ubuntwo]

It looks like every single 12z EPS member has development in some capacity? Most members are hurricanes and about 10-15% get down to the 960s. Tightest clustering is around the big bend region.

[Category5Kaiju]

Get ready for the hurricane models

[ThunderForce]

I'm curious about something. Is the track pretty much a "lock" at this point? It seems like all of the operational models are now showing this hitting either Bay County or Gulf County, and landfall seems to be only 4-5 days away.

[chris_fit]

I'm curious about something. Is the track pretty much a "lock" at this point? It seems like all of the operational models are now showing this hitting either Bay County or Gulf County, and landfall seems to be only 4-5 days away.

Far from a lock. Center needs to be established first.

[CrazyC83]

Time is not our friend either - I'd be getting the G-IV into the Gulf tomorrow as well. As it is, a Hurricane Watch will likely be needed somewhere on the Gulf Coast by late Tuesday based on projections...additionally, I think more balloon launches are needed, since we need to know the strength of the trough and the orientation.

[redingtonbeach]

https://i.imgur.com/TSkzLMG.jpeg

If I’m reading this right, the SHIPS model is projecting a low-end Cat 3 at landfall. Is that accurate?

[DunedinDave]

I'm curious about something. Is the track pretty much a "lock" at this point? It seems like all of the operational models are now showing this hitting either Bay County or Gulf County, and landfall seems to be only 4-5 days away.

That's a good question because I was on this morning and there were several board members on here basically saying Appalachicola to Biloxi is a lock. Kind of made me drop my guard here a bit in the TB area since I figure they know a lot more than I do but I'd be curious if this track seems pretty set?

[wx98]

I'm curious about something. Is the track pretty much a "lock" at this point? It seems like all of the operational models are now showing this hitting either Bay County or Gulf County, and landfall seems to be only 4-5 days away.

Far from a lock. Center needs to be established first.

Definitely not a “lock”, but the window for windshield wiping is closing quickly. Models are, as of this morning, zeroing in on the area from Destin to Apalachicola. This is subject to change, however.

[StPeteMike]

I'm curious about something. Is the track pretty much a "lock" at this point? It seems like all of the operational models are now showing this hitting either Bay County or Gulf County, and landfall seems to be only 4-5 days away.

That's a good question because I was on this morning and there were several board members on here basically saying Appalachicola to Biloxi is a lock. Kind of made me drop my guard here a bit in the TB area since I figure they know a lot more than I do but I'd be curious if this track seems pretty set?

Nothing is locked yet. I would let the models digest all the new information they have now with a fixed point and check the 0z model and much of tomorrow. Anything from a cenger reformation to a little jug to the east or west could put new areas at risk.

[gatorcane]

The NAM is not a tropical model but it is reasonably good at forecasting large-scale features and 500MB steering. Interesting that it's the first run in the last few runs where it shows the cut-off low more east over Arkansas. In the 12Z it was over eastern Oklahoma, are the models getting any special data fed into them in this 18Z cycle?

[StPeteMike]

The NAM is not a tropical model but it is reasonably good at forecasting large-scale features and 500MB steering. Interesting that it's the first run in the last few runs where it shows the cut-off low more east over Arkansas. In the 12Z it was over eastern Oklahoma, are the models getting some data fed into them in this 18Z cycle?

https://i.postimg.cc/yY1LB3nX/nam-z500a-watl-fh48-84.gif

Not good for the Tampa Bay region if that is the case.

[DunedinDave]

Curious for those who remember…what were the factors that pushed Ian so hard to the right? Was it a trough like the one forecast to come down into the SE? If so where was that positioned?

[robbielyn]

[quote="DunedinDave"]Curious for those who remember…what were the factors that pushed Ian so hard to the right? Was it a trough like the one forecast to come down into the SE? If so where was that positioned?[/]

[Weathertracker96]

18z Icon seems to have shifted east.

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON with some NE movement across the EGOM:

[jlauderdal]

18Z ICON with NE movement across the EGOM now:

Icon sniffed out ian movement.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm curious about something. Is the track pretty much a "lock" at this point? It seems like all of the operational models are now showing this hitting either Bay County or Gulf County, and landfall seems to be only 4-5 days away.

No such thing as a lock in the tropics. This isn't a simple set up and it will come down to timing. Once we get a defined center and the flights start sampling the air we will have a much better idea from the models.

[DunedinDave]

That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference.