Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

With this loaded TCPOD for the suspect area, it will be a invest anytime before this day is over.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT SUN 22 SEPTEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 23/1430Z C. 24/0230Z
D. 17.5N 83.5W D. 18.5N 84.0W
E. 23/1730Z TO 23/2230Z E. 24/0500Z TO24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 43
A. 24/1200Z A. 24/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0309A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0409A CYCLONE
C. 24/0530Z C. 24/0800Z
D. NA D. 18.5N 84.5W
E. NA E. 24/1000Z TO 24/1400Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 73
A. 24/1130,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE
C. 24/0830Z
D. 18.5N 84.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO
THE SUSPECT AREA FOR 25/0000Z AND 25/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL
AT 24/2000Z AND 25/0800Z RESPECTIVELY.
C. TWO MORE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND
SUSPECT AREA FOR 25/0000Z AND 25/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL
AT 24/1730Z AND 25/0530Z RESPECTIVELY.

[StormPyrate]

You must be in central or northern Florida. Here in Cutler Bay (10 miles or so south of Miami), a friend who lives one block away was quoted $15k yearly. That's on a typical 3/2 home built in the 60s.

In clearwater our rates are stabilizing, lots of the recent reforms are kicking in.
You cannot use antecdotal cases to make a true statement of the entire state.
Lots to be done still, but the state cannot survive another major storm just is not true.

I am in Pasco, this is nonsense from my perspective. Rates are 20- 35% up every year, constantly. Yes I shop around, Ive cut back coverage significantly. Im still up annualy 20%. In 2016 I paid $1100 a year for Homeowners. This year I paid $4200. My neighbors all say the same.

People are fed up with it. Just one of the costs to live here that is spiraling out of control. Real estate market is teetering on a cliff because of these costs.

ancectdotal
My experience is totally different 12 miles from the coast. So it makes my point that neither your case nor mine indicates a total truth.
There is lots of evidence things are normalizing. maybe not as fast as they need to but the original statement was it would be catastrophic for the state if another major hit,

[StormPyrate]

With this loaded TCPOD for the suspect area, it will be a invest anytime before this day is over.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT SUN 22 SEPTEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 23/1430Z C. 24/0230Z
D. 17.5N 83.5W D. 18.5N 84.0W
E. 23/1730Z TO 23/2230Z E. 24/0500Z TO24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 43
A. 24/1200Z A. 24/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0309A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0409A CYCLONE
C. 24/0530Z C. 24/0800Z
D. NA D. 18.5N 84.5W
E. NA E. 24/1000Z TO 24/1400Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 73
A. 24/1130,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE
C. 24/0830Z
D. 18.5N 84.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO
THE SUSPECT AREA FOR 25/0000Z AND 25/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL
AT 24/2000Z AND 25/0800Z RESPECTIVELY.
C. TWO MORE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND
SUSPECT AREA FOR 25/0000Z AND 25/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL
AT 24/1730Z AND 25/0530Z RESPECTIVELY.

There we go, good news

[aspen]

The 12z GFS has a midrange TS in 48 hours and the NHC only has chances at 10% for 48 hours? Something is not adding up.

My best guess is that the NHC was favoring the slower, broader Euro/CMC solutions and thinking the GFS was overdoing it with rapid consolidation. However, we may be seeing the start of a concentrated vort just north of Honduras similar to what the rapid development GFS runs have been showing.

[Nuno]

What does this gotta do to get labeled as an invest?

[Steve]

What does this gotta do to get labeled as an invest?

11 more pages

[Teban54]

What does this gotta do to get labeled as an invest?

I wouldn't be surprised to see this jumping straight to TD without going through the invest stage.

[Steve]

Also different in the GFS is that when it comes inland, the energy splits with some of it (including low level center) getting sucked into the cut off low with a lot of the energy getting sucked into the low offshore. Consequently the precip pattern goes through GA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=258

[cheezyWXguy]

Connecting with the trough at 96 hours. Can’t get much farther east now I don’t think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

Even if the path and intensity play out verbatim up to that point, I think there is going to be a lot of debate on where it goes after that. Wxman had a good point with Francine when he talked about how storms with northward trajectories like this interacting with a trough tend to go east of initial depictions, and we have a long list of storms where that has been the case. To me, at least a portion of the peninsular west coast is still in play

That was a different kind of trough though. This is a cut off

No doubt, the setup depicted here favors the northward movement and I agree on continued northward movement if the trough behavior plays out just like this. However, the run to run inconsistency in how this trough progresses is why I’m not yet sold on a straight north track. Honestly the differences in trough location at only 5 days out between the 0z and 12z runs are surprising to me

[hipshot]

Connecting with the trough at 96 hours. Can’t get much farther east now I don’t think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

Even if the path and intensity play out verbatim up to that point, I think there is going to be a lot of debate on where it goes after that. Wxman had a good point with Francine when he talked about how storms with northward trajectories like this interacting with a trough tend to go east of initial depictions, and we have a long list of storms where that has been the case. To me, at least a portion of the peninsular west coast is still in play

That was a different kind of trough though. This is a cut off

So how/what makes this different in the way it will effect a storm?

Thks

[sponger]

In clearwater our rates are stabilizing, lots of the recent reforms are kicking in.
You cannot use antecdotal cases to make a true statement of the entire state.
Lots to be done still, but the state cannot survive another major storm just is not true.

I am in Pasco, this is nonsense from my perspective. Rates are 20- 35% up every year, constantly. Yes I shop around, Ive cut back coverage significantly. Im still up annualy 20%. In 2016 I paid $1100 a year for Homeowners. This year I paid $4200. My neighbors all say the same.

People are fed up with it. Just one of the costs to live here that is spiraling out of control. Real estate market is teetering on a cliff because of these costs.

ancectdotal
My experience is totally different 12 miles from the coast. So it makes my point that neither your case nor mine indicates a total truth.
There is lots of evidence things are normalizing. maybe not as fast as they need to but the original statement was it would be catastrophic for the state if another major hit,

Normalizing at a 300% increase or more. How manageable for the bankrupt lower and middle class. Florida real estate will be in a fire sale in the next six months without homeowners insurance increasing. Those reforms you speak of are pennies on the dollar. Meanwhile, "Citizens Insurance board approves 2025 rate hike of 14%" Yep definitely normalizing....

[AtlanticWind]

It will be invest by this afternoon, don’t worry

[MetroMike]

Without the invest track models we are at a real disadvantage for lead time.
I hope the NHC is not only depending on only one model to buy some time.
Gonna get crazy if things blow up sooner than expected.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/SpaceCityWX/status/1837892631206011113

[cheezyWXguy]

Without the invest track models we are at a real disadvantage for lead time.
I hope the NHC is not only depending on only one model to to buy some time.
Gonna get crazy if things blow up sooner than expected.

I don’t think the NHC is doing that, but I think the models have recently caught onto the notion that this could spin up faster than previously depicted. A day or two ago I made a post noting that I was skeptical about the epac system’s influence on the consolidation of this storm, thinking that the models may be overdoing it. With recent trends it does seem that this was the case, so the models are playing catch-up. I imagine NHC will be raising probabilities this afternoon

[Steve]

Even if the path and intensity play out verbatim up to that point, I think there is going to be a lot of debate on where it goes after that. Wxman had a good point with Francine when he talked about how storms with northward trajectories like this interacting with a trough tend to go east of initial depictions, and we have a long list of storms where that has been the case. To me, at least a portion of the peninsular west coast is still in play

That was a different kind of trough though. This is a cut off

So how/what makes this different in the way it will effect a storm?

Thks

Hey hip. In the case of Francine you had a developing low coming up from the BOC with a trough across most of Texas. Like 57 said It was textbook that the center would continue to develop to the right as it repeatedly consolidated with the energy ahead of it. It probably eventually split but was a v shaped trough so the flow ahead of it is out of the SW. That’s still the same but when the point cuts off you have counter-clockwise rotating energy within the trough and in this case the strongest part of the trough. It buckles and the flow, again counterclockwise is going to draw in the energy from the surface tropical circulation.

[TomballEd]

Mild disagreement between where the 6Z Euro ensembles favor vs. the 12Z GFS ensembles, but some part of Florida seems likely to have a strong TS to a major Cat 3 or even Cat 4 hurricane.

[hipshot]

That was a different kind of trough though. This is a cut off

So how/what makes this different in the way it will effect a storm?

Thks

Hey hip. In the case of Francine you had a developing low coming up from the BOC with a trough across most of Texas. Like 57 said It was textbook that the center would continue to develop to the right as it repeatedly consolidated with the energy ahead of it. It probably eventually split but was a v shaped trough so the flow ahead of it is out of the SW. That’s still the same but when the point cuts off you have counter-clockwise rotating energy within the trough and in this case the strongest part of the trough. It buckles and the flow, again counterclockwise is going to draw in the energy from the surface tropics circulation.

A trough is an area of low pressure correct so... the cut off low becomes stronger when when it is basically broken up or disturbed by
some other weather pattern?

[wx98]

Look for probs in the 48-hour TWO to start coming up with each update. Florida Panhandle to Big Bend is looking like the most likely landfall point, probably by Thursday. It will be rather quick, so it may be difficult to get people to pay adequate attention until it’s late in the game. I’d expect PTC advisories to start tomorrow, unless it’s able to quickly close off by then and go straight to a TD/TS.

[psyclone]

Without the invest track models we are at a real disadvantage for lead time.
I hope the NHC is not only depending on only one model to to buy some time.
Gonna get crazy if things blow up sooner than expected.

I don’t think the NHC is doing that, but I think the models have recently caught onto the notion that this could spin up faster than previously depicted. A day or two ago I made a post noting that I was skeptical about the epac system’s influence on the consolidation of this storm, thinking that the models may be overdoing it. With recent trends it does seem that this was the case, so the models are playing catch-up. I imagine NHC will be raising probabilities this afternoon

I think the real tell here will be whether or not the NHC raises odds by more than a dime at a time. They like to paint their development canvas in 10% increments.