Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[lovingseason2013]

I know hurricanes are a general rule of life living on the Gulf Coast, but I really wish this would fizzle out so no one gets hurt or receives any damage to their properties. The constant string of hurricanes impacting somewhere on the Gulf Coast in particular these past 6 years or so is getting really old.

6 years? Try going back to Hurricane Opal, this is nothing new for the Gulf Coast. Back in the 1600s Pensacola was wiped out by a Hurricane, and didn't resettle for a while, hence why they call St. Augustine the oldest city and not Pensacola, even though Pensacola was settled before St. Augustine.

[StPeteMike]

Can someone answer these questions please?

1) Why does a Gyre storm take longer to form?
2) What are some other famous storms that originated this way?

Thanks.

Not too fond of other storms to answer 2. But the answer for 1. Gyre normally have multiple rotations/vortices within it. Just imagine at least 5 rotations trying to fight for supremacy. Normally, the Atlantic side wins with the fight but not always.

[aspen]

12z GFS has pretty rapid development. If this is going to verify, we would need to see deep convection persisting NE of Honduras starting this afternoon and continuing overnight, as based on the 12z GFS IR plot.

[ThomasW]

Can someone answer these questions please?

1) Why does a Gyre storm take longer to form?
2) What are some other famous storms that originated this way?

Thanks.

1) A "gyre storm" takes longer to form for two reasons. First is because CAGs often start out over land, and in order to develop, the vorticity center must reach water. The second is related to the first: because they often start inland, the disturbances that go on to form these systems are often very broad. A broader storm will take longer to consolidate as the energy is more spread out. Think about a ballet dancer spinning. If she spins all stretched out, she will wobble, but if she tightens up the spin will become much more organized. This principle holds true for any vortex.
(2). Mitch, Wilma (though a wave assisted in that case), Rina 2011, Michael 2018

[LAF92]

12z gfs coming in hotter than 06z. The 06z was 985mb shooting the gap, the 12z is 974mb shooting the gap.

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone answer these questions please?

1) Why does a Gyre storm take longer to form?
2) What are some other famous storms that originated this way?

Thanks.

First question is because it’s emanating from a larger almost monsoonal type situation rather than an African wave/low. Different origins take different amounts of times to set off. Sometimes when you get a mid level mesovortex or upper low splitting off and moving into the Gulf, those can take a while to work to the surface. With a gyre you have a complex setup where energy has to consolidate around it to resolve.

That helps. Thanks Steve.

[kevin]

Ehmm... GFS what are you doing, into the 960s within 3 days .

Edit: 955 mb MH at +78 hrs.

[StormPyrate]

Can someone answer these questions please?

1) Why does a Gyre storm take longer to form?
2) What are some other famous storms that originated this way?

Thanks.

Not too fond of other storms to answer 2. But the answer for 1. Gyre normally have multiple rotations/vortices within it. Just imagine at least 5 rotations trying to fight for supremacy. Normally, the Atlantic side wins with the fight but not always.

A quick google search on number 2

Storms like Hurricane Michael and Tropical Storm Cristobal have originated from the Central American Gyre in the past, making it a key feature to monitor during the season.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I DO NOT like that GFS so far is already showing a sub 970 storm so early as it is just entering the GOM. West Coast Florida wants to see a weaker/slower development to keep it further from us in the long run. At least that's what I'm thinking now anyway.

[DunedinDave]

This looks like a Michael redux with this 12z GFS. Both intensity and track.

[wzrgirl1]

Thanks for your responses everyone.

[AutoPenalti]

Not focused on the intensity for now, it will vary depending on how fast it consolidates.

More important is the trough positioning approaching the gap

[kevin]

I don't know if there's ever been a model run showing a potential TC becoming a MH in 3 days without there even being an official invest yet. At the same time ICON only has a weak 998 mbar system by that time. Crazy difference in terms of intensity between models.

[Teban54]

Ehmm... GFS what are you doing, into the 960s within 3 days .

Edit: 955 mb MH at +78 hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/fYXIFTi.png

That's a 14 mb drop over 6 hours, or 2.3 mb per hour...

[WaveBreaking]

12Z run chose violence

[Blown Away]

Trough digging a little farther S and HP a little weaker vs 06z…

[Pelicane]

Hoping this is the just the GFS being convection happy... because conditions look very favourable if it's strengthing this fast.

[tiger_deF]

Especially given the predicted intensity of this season, the NHC has been incredibly conservative this year. Lots of shorties that were never given advisories, and a scant amount of invests. Some AOI’s going right to tropical systems and skipping invest stage. This is one of those cases where we could have had an invest as early as yesterday morning when deep convection was consolidating off of Nicaragua.

[ThomasW]

Unless this forms tomorrow, please toss the 12z GFS in the trash can. This is not happening in all likelihood.

[BobHarlem]

Please stop gfs