Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[StPeteMike]

Trough digs down more in that run, which I think is more likely. I have never trusted the earlier models that kept a ridge strong over FL and southeast CONUS.

3 days until the start of organization, everything can change.
I just remind everyone that if you don’t have your supplies all set, best to do so now. Anywhere between Fort Myers and Biloxi.

[SFLcane]

Another shift to the right by the EC-AIFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/5tGRDwSR/ec-aifs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh60-138.gif

Hmm..

Speaking of Ai the models are showing one heck of signal for a wave of Africa AI has a monster north of PR.

[gatorcane]

Satellite images can be deceiving but certainly looks like it could form more to the east than some of the guidance has been showing, based on the 00Z models, NHC might have to extend the area for potential development east into more of the SE GOM and EGOM:

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/dcareawx/status/1837619291136372916

[dexterlabio]

Any chance of Francine 2.0?

[StPeteMike]

Whatever convection there was seems to be waning and looks to be detach from the main area of development to the west, just east/northeast of Honduras. The trough will eventually help fan the system, but currently is keep it disorganized with the shear to the north.

[hipshot]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Ghf5T6MV/goes16-ir-watl.gif [/url]

ATM it appears the L would set up a little farther E.

I was just about to post that, in fact it seems to have moved a lot off the CA coastline.

[sponger]

Changing the gen oil tomorrow and starting the slow build up of Ethanol free fuel. I never take lightly a Fall Low South and West of me. Especially with that low shear forecast and good ventilation.

[Stratton23]

ICON 00z so far through hour 114 has stronger ridging over the SE US, system in the west central gulf at hour 114 with the cut off low diving down to the SW in texas

[LAF92]

ICON 00z so far through hour 114 has stronger ridging over the SE US, system in the west central gulf at hour 114 with the cut off low diving down to the SW in texas

Looks like it hits the brakes and makes a b line to the big bend area of Florida. As a major hurricane 945mb landfall.

[Stratton23]

I have a hard time buying such a hard NE turn like that lol

[DunedinDave]

The ICON 0z is almost a carbon copy of that crazy 12z GFS run a couple days ago that took a cat 5 Hurricane east into the FLA west coast. Don’t tell me we’re re-opening that idea again.

[LAF92]

I have a hard time buying such a hard NE turn like that lol

Yeah especially if it gets that far west

[Pelicane]

GFS already looks stronger

[REDHurricane]

ICON 00z so far through hour 114 has stronger ridging over the SE US, system in the west central gulf at hour 114 with the cut off low diving down to the SW in texas

Looks like it hits the brakes and makes a b line to the big bend area of Florida. As a major hurricane 945mb landfall.

Yeah I don't like that at all, ICON has been the most accurate model in the Gulf this year and it's not close (according to my very poor short to medium-term memory, please correct me if I'm wrong on any of these) -- first it nailed Beryl, can't exactly remember how it did for Chris but I think I recall all the models performing pretty equally, then it did a solid job with Debby, and finally it correctly predicted a landfall further to the east than GFS/Euro did up to about 5 days out for Francine. Any storm that has almost 4 entire days to hang out in the Gulf under an upper-level ridge has an extremely high top-end potential outcome, if that wasn't already obvious. It's still too early to get hung up on any particular model run, even ICON, because nothing resembling a real tropical disturbance is even there yet, but it'll be interesting nevertheless to see if the other models trend towards the ICON solution at all over the next ~24 hours and how ICON itself trends as well.

[LAF92]

GFS already looks stronger

Shooting the gap around 995mb similar to the 18z run

[Category5Kaiju]

Whoa there, GFS already spinning this up as early as the day after tomorrow.

Looks like models are starting to consider earlier than anticipated development as a legitimate possibility

[Pelicane]

Looks similar to 18z intensity wise. Just a hair quicker and bit east.

[Owasso]

Slightly more intense on this run, was gonna add that it looked like it was about a degree further west but it just took a northeastward turn on the last update. Net result is it's ended up being slightly east of the 18z run now

[Owasso]

959 mb and a full degree east of 18z run now.