Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[TomballEd]

I'm sure the 18Z GFS won't be accurate on either landfall location or intensity, the ensembles are still preferred at this range. Patting myself on the back on this one, why based on the 12Z GEFS with a few members in the 950s and 960s mb, I was reluctant to agree with the sloppy tropical storm or weak hurricane belief.

GEFS, ignoring a couple of outliers, still points somewhere from Fourchon/Grand Isle (spelling?) to Florida between Tampa and the Big Bend.

A couple of the ensemble members that miss Tampa probably still at least cause some higher tides.

Back to the op run, the dry air doesn't reach the core before landfall, or this could strengthen all the way to the coast. Can't wait for the 0Z runs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Also end of that GFS run still wants a part 2 - this time at the Peninsula

They don’t call it happy hour for nothing.

Considering the only reason to call it that would be the time it rolls out, I would say “they” do.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS… This run focused on FL Big Bend area… Spares S end of FL Peninsula…

[StPeteMike]

Also end of that GFS run still wants a part 2 - this time at the Peninsula

They don’t call it happy hour for nothing.

Considering the only reason to call it that would be the time it rolls out, I would say “they” do.

The difference this time, maybe I saw wrong, was that this 18z also took in the ASCAT pass that showed some type of rotation coming together.

[Blown Away]

The energy from the AOI is way E and if the L doesn’t set up near the energy, it’s void to the W. If the setup is W it makes sense the models are starting to see a weaker system…

[AtlanticWind]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XqJ2D0Nf/goes16-ir-watl-2.gif [/url]

The energy from the AOI is way E and if the L doesn’t set up near the energy, it’s void to the W. If the setup is W it makes sense the models are starting to see a weaker system…

I don’t think we know where this develops, I think forming east of models is still possible.

[StPeteMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XqJ2D0Nf/goes16-ir-watl-2.gif [/url]

The energy from the AOI is way E and if the L doesn’t set up near the energy, it’s void to the W. If the setup is W it makes sense the models are starting to see a weaker system…

I don’t think we know where this develops, I think forming east of models is still possible.

Going off of the GFS 18z, I think that’s what it is expecting. Which if the trough to the north continues to fan the convection and keeps stronger convection to the east, we can see one or two lows reform to the east to bury itself under the heavier convection before the shear lessens and it can organize.

[Spacecoast]

The energy from the AOI is way E and if the L doesn’t set up near the energy, it’s void to the W. If the setup is W it makes sense the models are starting to see a weaker system…

That's waaay east... Under Jamaica?

[DunedinDave]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XqJ2D0Nf/goes16-ir-watl-2.gif [/url]

The energy from the AOI is way E and if the L doesn’t set up near the energy, it’s void to the W. If the setup is W it makes sense the models are starting to see a weaker system…

I mean, we saw how Debby played mind games with the models with jumping centers. This is why it’s so premature to take models seriously. If the center forms 100 miles east of where the GFS and Euro estimates it’s going to form, that changes everything.

[StPeteMike]

While we wait for a low to form and the models can latch on something to run operations, I’ll do a little fun prediction.

Euro will shift east and GFS will continue to show landfall between Pensacola and Port Charlotte. Really interested to see if the cluster to the south of Jamaica stays together by the morning.

[ThunderForce]

It looks like another thing that will influence the track is the trough that's supposed to pick this up. GFS has the 500mb height anomaly associated with it bouncing around at various different places in each run, despite only being about 5 days away or so:

00z: Roughly around Alabama. Pulls the hurricane into Franklin County, FL.
06z: Roughly around the Big Bend of Florida. Pulls the hurricane into roughly Levy County, FL.
12z: Around Arkansas. Looks like it pulls the hurricane between Bay and Walton counties, FL.
18z: Around Mississippi and Tennessee. Seems to pull the hurricane into either Jefferson or Taylor County, FL.

The 12z Euro and CMC runs seem to show the trough/low pressure closer to Texas. Might be why they're pulling it in further west than the GFS.

[Stormlover70]

While we wait for a low to form and the models can latch on something to run operations, I’ll do a little fun prediction.

Euro will shift east and GFS will continue to show landfall between Pensacola and Port Charlotte. Really interested to see if the cluster to the south of Jamaica stays together by the morning.

we will be on the dirty side either way.

[StPeteMike]

While we wait for a low to form and the models can latch on something to run operations, I’ll do a little fun prediction.

Euro will shift east and GFS will continue to show landfall between Pensacola and Port Charlotte. Really interested to see if the cluster to the south of Jamaica stays together by the morning.

we will be on the dirty side either way.

Yep! Hoping all we get is some rain and a little breezy weather. Also hope our coastal areas avoid any storm surge.

[Steve]

While we wait for a low to form and the models can latch on something to run operations, I’ll do a little fun prediction.

Euro will shift east and GFS will continue to show landfall between Pensacola and Port Charlotte. Really interested to see if the cluster to the south of Jamaica stays together by the morning.

I lost my links to the MJO hurricane teleconnections but luckily Bastardi had Phase 8/Phase 1 in his summary today. Those phases correlate more with the NC/East NC Gulf hits which he thinks it comes up somewhere between Apalachicola and New Orleans and not as far east as the GFS run. Obviously nothing is set in stone including the MJO which some models have skipping 8 and going through the circle. Climate model does have it circling through 8 and 1 as do a couple of others. It’s just something to watch for and not necessarily what I’m thinking.

[Stormcenter]

Where does the latest EURO run show it making landfall?

[Spacecoast]

Where does the latest EURO run show it making landfall?

Just released 18z EC-AIFS shows landfall between Tampa and Big Bend @ 120-126 hrs early 9/27. A shift east from 12z.

[gatorcane]

Another shift to the right by the EC-AIFS:

[gatorcane]

EC-AIFS trend last 4 runs:

[TomballEd]

I suspect the Euro ensembles are going to be in the ballpark. Let me try this again...



L

[SFLcane]

Another shift to the right by the EC-AIFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/5tGRDwSR/ec-aifs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh60-138.gif

Hmm..