Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[LAF92]

I will narrow it more tomorrow, most likely on the western side.

western side?

Sun how you doing with that transplant?
——————
18z ICON with weaker EPAC action than 12z. Only a slight 1007mb low in the Caribbean at 57 hours though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2118&fh=57

At the end of the 18z ICON it looks like its quite bit further south in the BOC compared to the 12z

[Stratton23]

18z ICON has stronger ridging and is much further west with the cut off low , cut off low is over New mexico , 12z run at hour 120 was over oklahoma and north texas, thats a massive shift

[DunedinDave]

I like the ICON model. Keeps it weak and far away from Florida.

[Steve]

Yes to LAF92 and Stratton.

[Coolcruiseman]

Crazy how midweek it looked like we’d have development this weekend and now it could be as late as Wed/Thurs. These CAG systems are painstakingly slow compared to a wave.

[Blown Away]

18z ICON has stronger ridging and is much further west with the cut off low , cut off low is over New mexico , 12z run at hour 120 was over oklahoma and north texas, thats a massive shift

Agree, I think if our AOI stays very weak and shallow, like 18z Icon, it goes W into BOC and maybe Mexico/TX. Strengthens into strong TS or hurricane before Yucatan, I think Bama to Ft. Myers likely. The weak W solution just as likely.

[TomballEd]

western side?

Sun how you doing with that transplant?
——————
18z ICON with weaker EPAC action than 12z. Only a slight 1007mb low in the Caribbean at 57 hours though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2118&fh=57

good blood test coming out good now almost 6 months

My daughter is still suffering from the long term effects of chemo, the biggest one was menopause at 21, but so far, the cancer is undetectable. Another bone marrow biopsy in October.

[wx98]

so area need watch this area iis from Myers, Florida to houston tx ? or only from big bend to new Orlean?

Fort Myers to Mobile but a big storm so north and east well away on alert

Ft Myers to Mobile?? How anyone can narrow down an area with NOTHING is a mystery.

That’s not really a narrowed down area…

[Ubuntwo]

That 18z ICON solution is a return to the previous 'stuck in a col' look. I don't see it continuing all the way to Mexico, steering is too weak there. The cutoff low is still gently sliding east by the end of the run and would eventually pick it up. You don't want a gyre stalled-out over the Gulf. I would gladly take a return to the 12z quick trough pickup and no time to get its act together.

[Stratton23]

Ubuntwo yeah but that cut off low is much weaker on that ICON run, the weaker that is, the less of a sharp turn to the NE that system will feel, but also the ICON is a bit further south with the system, that can matter a lot when it comes to the steering pattern

[Ubuntwo]

18z GFS initialized with the recent ASCAT data, and the convective depiction is a bit more accurate. Will see if it made any difference very soon

[TomballEd]

Crazy how midweek it looked like we’d have development this weekend and now it could be as late as Wed/Thurs. These CAG systems are painstakingly slow compared to a wave.

The models delaying development for as long as they did this did a solid for Texas, there might have been enough ridging over the Gulf to let this come that way.

Will need to see if the 18Z ICON sets a trend, or the models with the NW flow protecting the NW Gulf stay this way. Climatology is helping, a second tier global against the Big 3, and time of year makes me feel safer. The two recent Texas October hurricanes came up from deep in the BoC, or a path into the W side of the BoC would be a little nervous. The 1949 October storm was a high end Cat 2, which is never good. Center Point, after years of not bothering, is now trimming tree limbs near power lines, and some of the wooden poles that broke were replaced with stronger plastic poles. so we'd be better in a Cat 1, but a Cat 2 would get some of the wooden poles that Beryl didn't get.

[TomballEd]

That 18z ICON solution is a return to the previous 'stuck in a col' look. I don't see it continuing all the way to Mexico, steering is too weak there. The cutoff low is still gently sliding east by the end of the run and would eventually pick it up. You don't want a gyre stalled-out over the Gulf. I would gladly take a return to the 12z quick trough pickup and no time to get its act together.

A big part of the downtrend in model intensity is less time over the very high OHC in the Caribbean and Gulf. More time in the light shear further S over very warm/deep water would put a higher end system back on the table.

[Ubuntwo]

18z GFS initialized with the recent ASCAT data, and the convective depiction is a bit more accurate. Will see if it made any difference very soon

Looks like it did. Tropical storm by hour 69.

[kevin]

18z GFS already has a closed low and TD strength wind speeds (30 kt) at +57 hours. TS at +69 hours. Much faster development than the last 4 GFS runs which didn't even have a closed low or TD wind speeds by the time this run develops into a TS.

[Frank P]

OK this run going to be interesting..

[FLpanhandle91]

This might be another catastrophic GFS run.

[Frank P]

h93 994mb shooting the channel

[Frank P]

h93 994mb shooting the channel

[Frank P]

h102 982mb