Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[toad strangler]

2024 post-Beryl:
1. Models show a strong hurricane impacting the U.S. “This will be the big one!” everyone thinks.
2. Models become increasingly unenthusiastic and the system either fails to form or is sloppier than expected.
Not saying this is a guaranteed outcome with this one, but I’m leaning towards it.

I don’t think there’s been a pervasive mindset that this was gonna be a big one. There’s been evidence since the beginning that this might not come together being CAG origin

It's been waning recently, but not long ago there was very solid ensemble support and strong operation runs, just like Francine really. Ironically enough we are approaching that preinvest thread's number of posts.

I’ve been watching this since the beginning and I don’t think there has been an overall vibe among the forum members that this was gonna be a big one. Regardless of what the models were showing. Mainly because they’re just isn’t a system yet.

[Steve]

I don’t think there’s been a pervasive mindset that this was gonna be a big one. There’s been evidence since the beginning that this might not come together being CAG origin

It's been waning recently, but not long ago there was very solid ensemble support and strong operation runs, just like Francine really. Ironically enough we are approaching that preinvest thread's number of posts.

I’ve been watching this since the beginning and I don’t think there has been an overall vibe among the forum members that this was gonna be a big one. Regardless of what the models were showing. Mainly because they’re just isn’t a system yet.

It’s always been an unknown right? CAG storms are notoriously fickle in what you get. This is late September and not usually when we’re looking at it for genesis though we do look to the Caribbean in general. Clues were mid week when models were all over the place from each other and most of themselves from run to run. We had depictions of giant storms, small storms, strong storms and strung out ones. I wouldn’t be surprised to see further, if minor, deviation the next day or two. but as we are getting closer to development and landfall range of possibilities will narrow.

[Stratton23]

EURO AND CMC agree that the system will become trapped in land by stronge ridging once it makes landfall, IMO the GFS is too progressive with weakening the ridge over the NE US, im leaning towards a trap and almost loop like motion with what the euro and cmc show

[Category5Kaiju]

I wasn't on Storm2k back then, but for people who tracked Michael here, what was the general vibe before the storm formed? Were there indications that it was going to blow up? Were the models all over the place with it?

[N2FSU]

I still think it’s premature to be assuming this isn’t going to be much of anything now. Maybe it won’t be, hopefully not, but we don’t even have a PTC designation yet. The Gulf can do some crazy things. Time will tell.

[Stormcenter]

As always timing is everything, does the trough influence the system or not and if yes how much? I still think
all of the models continue to struggle with that.

[Woofde]

I don’t think there’s been a pervasive mindset that this was gonna be a big one. There’s been evidence since the beginning that this might not come together being CAG origin

It's been waning recently, but not long ago there was very solid ensemble support and strong operation runs, just like Francine really. Ironically enough we are approaching that preinvest thread's number of posts.

I’ve been watching this since the beginning and I don’t think there has been an overall vibe among the forum members that this was gonna be a big one. Regardless of what the models were showing. Mainly because they’re just isn’t a system yet.

I definitely have the context, I've been following since the beginning as well(first post was #13). I've read just about every post on this 800+ preinvest thread haha. I just gauged the earlier conversation differently. There was lots of hype around the time the GFS runs were cranking. Though there has always rightfully been doubts as you say because it hasn't formed and we were/are still a ways away.

[Spacecoast]

I looked 6 hour by 56 hour on TT. I didn't say there were a lot, I said there were enough. I am the last person screaming 'the Gulf is boiling, this is a Cat 5 for sure'. In fact, I am now on enemies lists when pointing out a poster when the 'weenie' every posts More ensemble members are TS and Cat 1 than anything else, I'm not going back two pages, but I think I said I expected a Cat 1 or a Cat 2.

No problem. I wasn't inferring anything wrong with your interpretation. It's is certainly within the range of possibilities.
I prefer to use the ensemble mean values, rather than focus on any individual, or small group of members. With a high spread ensemble run, 90% of the members will verify to be very wrong.
It is only when the ensemble members agree with each other, and the mean that the forecast can be considered high confidence.
Eventually, they will.
They always do.

I also wanted to point out the difference between TT, and WN/Pivotal wrt pressure levels. It has long been a mystery why there are different measurements for exactly same member at exactly the same time. I though they both pulled data from the same source.

[DunedinDave]

I wasn't on Storm2k back then, but for people who tracked Michael here, what was the general vibe before the storm formed? Were there indications that it was going to blow up? Were the models all over the place with it?

Looking at the models archive, it looked like the initial tracks were it hitting the Panhandle as a cat 1 or 2 storm. That was around 120-144 hours out. Pressure in the 970s or 980s. So it looked like there was more optimism that it had potential to be a big storm compared to this…as of now.

[Blown Away]

Euro trending E…

[TomballEd]

I looked 6 hour by 56 hour on TT. I didn't say there were a lot, I said there were enough. I am the last person screaming 'the Gulf is boiling, this is a Cat 5 for sure'. In fact, I am now on enemies lists when pointing out a poster when the 'weenie' every posts More ensemble members are TS and Cat 1 than anything else, I'm not going back two pages, but I think I said I expected a Cat 1 or a Cat 2.

No problem. I wasn't inferring anything wrong with your interpretation. It's is certainly within the range of possibilities.
I prefer to use the ensemble mean values, rather than focus on any individual, or small group of members. With a high spread ensemble run, 90% of the members will verify to be very wrong.
It is only when the ensemble members agree with each other, and the mean that the forecast can be considered high confidence.
Eventually, they will.
They always do.

I also wanted to point out the difference between TT, and WN/Pivotal wrt pressure levels. It has long been a mystery why there are different measurements for exactly same member at exactly the same time. I though they both pulled data from the same source.

We don't get access to mean forecasts of a system until it gets an invest tag, as far as I can tell. I use 'eyeball' means, but that isn't perfect. Even TT/WN means can be wrong, as some members dissipate a member, perhaps from landfalls, and only take the mean of the remaining members.

[Ivanhater]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/x8RWmDyw/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh168-trend.gif [/url]

Euro trending E…

It went west from 00z. 00z had big bend area...12z looks like Alabama gulf coast

[xironman]

Slowly getting there

[TomballEd]

Shape of NHC's orange shifting E on new TWO.

[StPeteMike]

I wasn't on Storm2k back then, but for people who tracked Michael here, what was the general vibe before the storm formed? Were there indications that it was going to blow up? Were the models all over the place with it?

Looking at the models archive, it looked like the initial tracks were it hitting the Panhandle as a cat 1 or 2 storm. That was around 120-144 hours out. Pressure in the 970s or 980s. So it looked like there was more optimism that it had potential to be a big storm compared to this…as of now.

Models and discussion this far out was that it was going to be a sheared Cat 1 to weak Cat 2 Hurricane into the Panhandle. Some of the models had him crashing into Belize and not becoming of much. Don’t think it was until a day before being classified that the upper level environment was looking more favorable and models begun to start showing a strong major.

[hipshot]

Shape of NHC's orange shifting E on new TWO.

What's that new orange area just west of the islands off of Africa?

[HurricaneBelle]

Josh Morgerman tweeted this after Debby (and Idalia the year before). Based on model trends the Weather Gods don't appear to be listening to him.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1820441484165845219

And today he added this, LOL

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1837558145700278455

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, this storm probably wont even form for days, so plenty of time for models to show all kinds of crazy stuff. If you get bored with a certain run, there's always another run in a few hours

[Ubuntwo]

Off topic, but the chatter yesterday about the longest pre-invest thread made me look. It's not pre-Francine contrary to the popular belief. Pre-Nicole in 2010 had 1,461 posts/74 pages (!) before being designated as invest 96L. It was a SFL model storm which ended up peaking as a 40kt tropical storm dissipating after crossing Cuba. We've got a ways to go with this one.

[Steve]

Off topic, but the chatter yesterday about the longest pre-invest thread made me look. It's not pre-Francine contrary to the popular belief. Pre-Nicole in 2010 had 1,461 posts/74 pages (!) before being designated as invest 96L. It was a SFL model storm which ended up peaking as a 40kt tropical storm dissipating after crossing Cuba. We've got a ways to go with this one.

I’ll raise you one visible satellite of the area featuring a nice outflow boundary.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir