Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[hipshot]

I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?

At this point, no one can be sure of direction or intensity...but, I would watch this closely especially starting mid next week.
This AOI is starting to move north now so things could get interesting very soon. BTW the video posted by jLauderdale was very good.

[SoupBone]

I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?

It's way too early to speak in absolutes like this.

[jlauderdal]

I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?

Less intense than the thunderstorms we had Thursday, looking good for SE Florida but certainly not a done deal.

[MississippiWx]

Overnight runs trended back east. Still think Panhandle to Big Bend is the most likely area for landfall. In late September, I’d be surprised to not see a hook to the north and east.

The biggest question is where it consolidates. The GFS seems to have convective feedback on the north and eastern side of convection. This is certainly possible, but typically more common for sheared symptoms. I don’t think this system will face shear until close to landfall. This is what gives me pause in calling a slam dunk Florida landfall.

My hunch is still Pensacola to Tampa.

[DunedinDave]

I thought the one video broke it down well with the troughs. A MH means more likely a landfall between the panhandle to NOLA. A weaker and sheared system means landfall somewhere between Cedar Key and Fort Myers. Not sure there’s a third option here. Seems like it’s going to be one of these two.

[MGC]

Convection has got quite concentrated this morning. Quite a bit of shear to the north or the disturbance. 06Z models are from Louisiana to Florida, some have strong hurricane. Going to have to wait until a center develops to get a better idea where this is going......MGC

[TomballEd]

I'm just happy that we finally have a blob to watch where the system is forecast to form.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1837505898714923054

[chaser1]

Would be crazy if Horseshoe Beach gets their third hurricane in one year. I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibilities at all.

Now THAT'S one place that I defy anyone from being able to successfully video a major hurricane landfall event (and survive)

[SFLcane]

As andy mentions not sure this was captured by the models very well interesting satellite appearance this morning surely.

[DunedinDave]

Surprised the NHC hasn’t even put a yellow X here yet. It’s like they want to make sure that their statement of 0% chance of development through the next 72 hours isn’t steered wrong.

[HurricaneBelle]

Josh Morgerman tweeted this after Debby (and Idalia the year before). Based on model trends the Weather Gods don't appear to be listening to him.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1820441484165845219

[Steve]

Nothing organized through 72 hours on the ICON yet. A brief 1008 low shows up about 10am Monday but peters out. A broader 1006 takes its place. On the EPAC side of the gyre, there is a 999mb system at 69 hours. So it shows the focusing there first.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2112&fh=69

[chaser1]

Surprised the NHC hasn’t even put a yellow X here yet. It’s like they want to make sure that their statement of 0% chance of development through the next 72 hours isn’t steered wrong.

That'll change if this level of convection can maintain itself. I could see a 20% "Lemon" by 8:00pm today if it does.

[sphelps8681]

I think I will come back when an eye forms. No knowledge is gained at this point with any different scenarios since it will be in the Gulf for me. Hope all you in Florida stay safe and no harm is done. To all on the Gulf Coast stay safe as well.

[chaser1]

Josh Morgerman tweeted this after Debby (and Idalia the year before). Based on model trends the Weather Gods don't appear to be listening to him.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1820441484165845219

"Josh, your wish is my command". Sopchoppy it is!

[Jr0d]

As always, the future tracks is iffy until we have something to track. I expect the current thunderstorm activity off of Honduras to fizzle again.

What is really starting to concern me is the the CMC and GFS seem to agree that whatever develops will be a large system, with the circulation and bands over more than half of the GoM, which could make storm flooding a major issue for all of the Florida Gulf Coast.

[cycloneye]

Look what we have tentatively for monday:

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
NEAR 17.5N 84.5W FOR 23/1800Z.

[DunedinDave]

I know I speak for a lot of people in the Tampa Bay Area but the last thing we need is another Debby where we get a foot of rain from this thing. We had a 10 minute thunderstorm yesterday and my street flooded because of all the rain we’ve had this summer. We need a drying out period…like 3 months of it to get back to normal.

[MetroMike]

I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?

Watch the video jlauderdale posted above. It doesn't seem likely.

The video is almost 24 hrs old, so need an update from him.