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Steve wrote:ICON looking like a higher end Cat 2 maybe headed to Alabama or NWFL at 180 hours. Upper 960’s and room to deepen though I haven’t looked at 500 yet.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
Stratton23 wrote:very big differences in the synoptic pattern once at landfall , the GFS is more progressive with breaking down the ridge and allowing this system to race off to the NE , the CMC 00z on the other hand has a much stronger ridge over the NE US whoch actually causes the system to stall and make a loop in land, moving into north texas, then moving down into se texas before moving off shore, albeit a weakening low
Stratton23 wrote:00z GEFS is even more spread apart, unfortunately their is still no clear trend today, uncertainty is very high
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ConvergenceZone wrote:I know that there is expected to be lots of shear in the gulf, which is why the models aren't strengthening it much, but I have no faith in shear forecasts anymore after Francine. Remember how pretty much all the models and the NHC were calling for strong shear as it approached landfall? And even if it happened, it didn't weaken the hurricane prior to landfall like was predicted.
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:I know that there is expected to be lots of shear in the gulf, which is why the models aren't strengthening it much, but I have no faith in shear forecasts anymore after Francine. Remember how pretty much all the models and the NHC were calling for strong shear as it approached landfall? And even if it happened, it didn't weaken the hurricane prior to landfall like was predicted.
Shear forecasts 5-9 days out are almost useless. Takes one pocket of favorable conditions in those waters for RI.
TomballEd wrote:I see some Cat 3s among the 12Z Euro ensembles and the new GFS ensemble members. Ensembles suggest a major is possible but not the most likely outcome.. If one has to look for obscure models nobody ever talks about except for situations like this, to talk about Cat 4s and 5s, it probably isn't happening.
Worth watching. Looking at 200 mb wind fields and the location of the likely storm from GFS, the actual shear until it gets close to the coast will be under 20 knots. But something is getting very dry mid-level air into the center circulation starting about 12 hours before landfall. Mid-shear maybe? CMC and GFS both have dry air cutting off almost all the precip S of the low, with the precip that is S and E of the center looking almost frontal.
The Ian example still holds, as the storm approaches strong shear from the W, that shear helps provide upward motion until the center moves into the stronger shear. Early guess is Cat 3 is the upper limit, caveat being the weather doesn't do exactly what the models predict, and it is 7 days out.
Track forecast won't be reliable as long as the CONUS 500 mb pattern as seen by the 12Z Euro, the ICON, the GFS and the Canadian all look quite different from each other. Factors outside CONUS, over the Pacific or even NE Asia, will affect landfall. The spread in the ensemble guidance reflects the uncertainty.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3335/9DrPVc.png
Blinhart wrote:TomballEd wrote:I see some Cat 3s among the 12Z Euro ensembles and the new GFS ensemble members. Ensembles suggest a major is possible but not the most likely outcome.. If one has to look for obscure models nobody ever talks about except for situations like this, to talk about Cat 4s and 5s, it probably isn't happening.
Worth watching. Looking at 200 mb wind fields and the location of the likely storm from GFS, the actual shear until it gets close to the coast will be under 20 knots. But something is getting very dry mid-level air into the center circulation starting about 12 hours before landfall. Mid-shear maybe? CMC and GFS both have dry air cutting off almost all the precip S of the low, with the precip that is S and E of the center looking almost frontal.
The Ian example still holds, as the storm approaches strong shear from the W, that shear helps provide upward motion until the center moves into the stronger shear. Early guess is Cat 3 is the upper limit, caveat being the weather doesn't do exactly what the models predict, and it is 7 days out.
Track forecast won't be reliable as long as the CONUS 500 mb pattern as seen by the 12Z Euro, the ICON, the GFS and the Canadian all look quite different from each other. Factors outside CONUS, over the Pacific or even NE Asia, will affect landfall. The spread in the ensemble guidance reflects the uncertainty.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3335/9DrPVc.png
So anywheres from CA to SC
I would say Cat 4/5 is still on the table(though it's definitely FAR from the most likely outcome right now). My reasoning is simple, I see a reasonable chance that this develops slower than expected. If that happens the models have been fairly consistent on trapping (or at the very least a significant slowdown in steering currents) the storm.TomballEd wrote:I see some Cat 3s among the 12Z Euro ensembles and the new GFS ensemble members. Ensembles suggest a major is possible but not the most likely outcome.. If one has to look for obscure models nobody ever talks about except for situations like this, to talk about Cat 4s and 5s, it probably isn't happening.
Worth watching. Looking at 200 mb wind fields and the location of the likely storm from GFS, the actual shear until it gets close to the coast will be under 20 knots. But something is getting very dry mid-level air into the center circulation starting about 12 hours before landfall. Mid-shear maybe? CMC and GFS both have dry air cutting off almost all the precip S of the low, with the precip that is S and E of the center looking almost frontal.
The Ian example still holds, as the storm approaches strong shear from the W, that shear helps provide upward motion until the center moves into the stronger shear. Early guess is Cat 3 is the upper limit, caveat being the weather doesn't do exactly what the models predict, and it is 7 days out.
Track forecast won't be reliable as long as the CONUS 500 mb pattern as seen by the 12Z Euro, the ICON, the GFS and the Canadian all look quite different from each other. Factors outside CONUS, over the Pacific or even NE Asia, will affect landfall. The spread in the ensemble guidance reflects the uncertainty.
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