Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[DunedinDave]

GFS a believer of the “Florida Shield.”

There is no such thing as a Florida Shield when Debby hit this year, Idalia last year and Nicole & Ian in 2022.

Until a center forms, it’s best for all to watch.

From his perspective in the Tampa area, it might feel like there is a shield since it has been over 100 years since that area as seen Major hurricane impacts (1921) not to mention Charley (2004) and Ian (2022) looked like shoe-in Tampa Bay hits yet somehow they hit SW Florida.

Yeah I’m not saying there will be a gauranteed “shield” for this system…just that the models as of now have it that way. And a few posters seem to be writing off Florida as well and saying it’s northern gulf coast bound. For the record, I think it’s way too premature for saying such things.

[jfk08c]

Looking at the GFS ensembles, it seems like the members slower to get North feel a breakdown in the ridge to the east and get pulled through by an area of low pressure in the Western Atlantic. That would pull it across the peninsula instead of up into the Northern GoM

[Weathertracker96]

Do the ensembles get the same data as operational?
The 18z GEFS seem more east than the last run. Sorry if this question was asked before.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the GFS ensembles, it seems like the members slower to get North feel a breakdown in the ridge to the east and get pulled through by an area of low pressure in the Western Atlantic. That would pull it across the peninsula instead of up into the Northern GoM

Indeed the GFS ensembles (mean of all of the ensembes) definitely are breaking that ridge down over the SE US and Florida (the big light red area) much faster than the op GFS so many ensembles turn the system NE into the FL peninsula. Compare the 120-192 hour 500MB chart animations:

GFS:


GFS Ensembles:

[StPeteMike]

Do the ensembles get the same data as operational?
The 18z GEFS seem more east than the last run. Sorry if this question was asked before.

Interested in this as well.

[jfk08c]

Do the ensembles get the same data as operational?
The 18z GEFS seem more east than the last run. Sorry if this question was asked before.

Interested in this as well.

They use the same data but tweak initial states to provide a better view of possibilities concerning the atmosphere

[Weathertracker96]

Do the ensembles get the same data as operational?
The 18z GEFS seem more east than the last run. Sorry if this question was asked before.

Interested in this as well.

They use the same data but tweak initial states to provide a better view of possibilities concerning the atmosphere

Thank you for answering. I was expecting a few ensembles to go east but didn’t expect for them to paint FL peninsula orange. I guess it’s best to continue watching until we get a center

[floridasun]

i looking sat pic this evening their two area to watch north of Honduras and north of Panama i see low both area i notice some of you saw one north of Honduras here sat pic

[gatorcane]

Trend for EC-AIFS (last 5 runs). Seems to be locking into the North-Central GOM:

[MetroMike]

Can't help but notice there is another MH forming in the Caribbean trying to follow somewhat.
It will probably be gone at 0z run.

[Spacecoast]

Looking at the GFS ensembles, it seems like the members slower to get North feel a breakdown in the ridge to the east and get pulled through by an area of low pressure in the Western Atlantic. That would pull it across the peninsula instead of up into the Northern GoM

Indeed the GFS ensembles (mean of all of the ensembes) definitely are breaking that ridge down over the SE US and Florida (the big light red area) much faster than the op GFS so many ensembles turn the system NE into the FL peninsula. Compare the 120-192 hour 500MB chart animations:

GFS:
https://i.postimg.cc/VNjSbWW1/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh120-192.gif

GFS Ensembles:
https://i.postimg.cc/zBZnsf0D/gfs-ens-z500a-Norm-watl-fh120-192.gif

Yes, the GEFS ensemble mean (AEMN) is east of the operational, and goes to Big Bend area, rather than Mobile.
I really wish Tomer Burg's site was up, as it always provided super-ensembles, and ensemble means (AEMN,EEMN, & CEMN).

[toad strangler]

GEFS once again with a significant presence in Florida, including the peninsula at odds with the OP. Without a real disturbance take with a grain of salt. Just like with all the OPS. I don’t believe in any trends or caves or any of that stuff until there’s a real disturbance to hone in on.

[jfk08c]

Yet another reason to always look at ensemble means when looking further than 4 days out. Tends to outperform most all of the time

[gatorcane]

Wonder if the GFS and other models have a handle on the current state of the 850MB vorticity. Looks alot stronger than the 18Z GFS initialized with:

[Stratton23]

Still a significant spread in the 18z GEFS, with some members still being slower and end up more west, until we get even somewhat of an agreement on the upper air pattern, uncertainty is extremely high

[eastcoastFL]

12Z NAVGEM, think it is a bit too far to the left but yikes, CAT 4:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fZ5278S/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh96-180.gif

That might be the strongest storm I’ve ever seen the NAVGEM model. Good thing it’s terrible. On a similar note, a recent run of the Korean model has a cat5 a bit south of there. No idea if that model is any good but seems too extreme either way.

KMA has back to back Cat 5 runs.

Where does it have the storm heading ?

[jfk08c]

GFS seems to think CAG season is open for business, just in time for October

[Stormlover70]

The system that is supposed to pull this north eventually is east of Alaska. Models are worthless at this juncture. Pretend the Gulf is a dartboard and close your eyes. And shoot.

[tropicwatch]

Wonder if the GFS and other models have a handle on the current state of the 850MB vorticity. Looks alot stronger than the 18Z GFS initialized with:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwmyF5Qn/wg-Evor850-0.gif

That vorticity map has an October date to it.

[gatorcane]

Wonder if the GFS and other models have a handle on the current state of the 850MB vorticity. Looks alot stronger than the 18Z GFS initialized with:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwmyF5Qn/wg-Evor850-0.gif

That vorticity map has an October date to it.

Yes good catch, this looks to be the current one: