Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Frank P]

GFS continues to push back the trough timing and allows the ridge to build over Florida.

Yep, GFS saved loop. A FL peninsula hit not looking likely with that 500MB setup and the CMC has even a stronger ridge. Northern Gulf coast on the other hand...

https://i.postimg.cc/Nfmk4RTS/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh72-168.gif

"Florida Shield"

Let's just see how well that FL shield is working come October with a possible back loaded season...

[SFLcane]

lol ok gefs...

[AutoPenalti]

Yep, GFS saved loop. A FL peninsula hit not looking likely with that 500MB setup and the CMC has even a stronger ridge. Northern Gulf coast on the other hand...

https://i.postimg.cc/Nfmk4RTS/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh72-168.gif

"Florida Shield"

Let's just see how well that FL shield is working come October with a possible back loaded season...

Random ridge will show up.

FWIW, half of the ensembles still over FL.

[toad strangler]

lol ok gefs...

https://i.postimg.cc/rwHyqnYv/mmm.gif

There are no trends

[StormPyrate]

Yep, GFS saved loop. A FL peninsula hit not looking likely with that 500MB setup and the CMC has even a stronger ridge. Northern Gulf coast on the other hand...

https://i.postimg.cc/Nfmk4RTS/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh72-168.gif

"Florida Shield"

Let's just see how well that FL shield is working come October with a possible back loaded season...

Florida has been hit plenty of times past couple of years, we can sort of put that myth in the busted category

[StPeteMike]

Think it’s too soon to say things like Florida Shield and we dodged another one when we don’t even have a low yet to track and the models to latch on.

[Ubuntwo]

After developing a storm EPAC-side and only emerging in the bay of Campeche, the 12z Euro pulls northeast and makes landfall near Mobile. 989mb makes this the strongest euro run to date.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[SFLcane]

Think it’s too soon to say things like Florida Shield and we dodged another one when we don’t even have a low yet to track and the models to latch on.

Happy Friday! Just a tad of Sarcasm from my part. Lets see if something develops which looks likely at this point

[MississippiWx]

You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy hanging onto every model run.

Northern Gulf Coast is in the crosshairs 180+ hours out. I feel pretty safe since it will likely change, and probably change significantly from the current 12z idea. I've kind of felt this would be a Florida storm from the beginning.

Regardless, these CAG setups are notorious for wild swings in the models because it's impossible this early to know where anything will consolidate. Pay attention to trends. The trends have been a delayed a further southwest consolidation. This doesn't mean it can't/won't head east later on still. This is still my hunch, although it has lessened my confidence a bit of a Florida peninsula direct impact. Now, I'm thinking more of a Panhandle/Big Bend impact.

We will see.

[toad strangler]

After developing a storm EPAC-side and only emerging in the bay of Campeche, the 12z Euro pulls northeast and makes landfall near Mobile. 989mb makes this the strongest euro run to date.

It looks like the 12z Euro puts the entire gyre in the GOM lol

[StPeteMike]

Think it’s too soon to say things like Florida Shield and we dodged another one when we don’t even have a low yet to track and the models to latch on.

Happy Friday! Just a tad of Sarcasm from my part. Lets see if something develops which looks likely at this point

https://i.postimg.cc/QCrN7FQs/bbb.png

Haha thanks!

FWIW, I see less model support for a Pacific system developing on the 12z. Think that is the likely scenario here. Everything else is still soon to call, besides a system will form early in the week, around Monday or Tuesday.

[Teban54]

I’ve been watching the last several runs of these models for key details, and here’s what I’ve gathered:

- from run to run, there’s a general consistency with when the gyre takes shape, but there is notable inconsistency in where/when/how the resultant TC forms. Sometimes from an area of vorticity on the periphery of the gyre, sometimes from the gyre itself.
- earlier, stronger development is inversely related to the strength of whatever epac tc forms in the same time period. I’m not sure how legitimate the epac tc is. I am also not sure why the epac tc exerts influence on the Atlantic tc, but seemingly not vice-versa. Maybe someone can answer this

NHC currently gives a 0/50 chance for the Caribbean system, but not the other side of Central America. The only AOI they have in the EPAC is much further west at 110-120W. So yeah, they seem to think the EPAC storm near Central America is just a phantom, even though it's been showing up on GFS multiple times and occasionally also the CMC.

As a side note, after last night's 0z run, this thread was full of people thinking development may not occur at all. Looks like those discussions are now gone after the 12z suite. This is why you don't get hung up on single-run "trends".

[Stormlover70]

Yep, GFS saved loop. A FL peninsula hit not looking likely with that 500MB setup and the CMC has even a stronger ridge. Northern Gulf coast on the other hand...

https://i.postimg.cc/Nfmk4RTS/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh72-168.gif

"Florida Shield"

Amazing. We dodged another one.

let's hope but I unfortunately don't think it's that cut and dry without a circulation or a set in stone longwave or high.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

Sent from my motorola razr plus 2023 using Tapatalk

[MississippiWx]

12z Euro https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240920/95cb1075bb0f76c08c5ec34c807af8eb.jpg

Sent from my motorola razr plus 2023 using Tapatalk

Lol. What a massive storm. 210 hours out...Yeah, I believe it.

[Stormlover70]

12z GFS into Mississippi coast

12z Canadian into Central Louisiana

12z Icon Destin.

I think we are starting to see some consolidation onto northern gulf coast

As of right now anything is possible including eating a crow sandwich.

[StPeteMike]

The nice thing about the convection dying off on the mess off of Honduras is that you can see a small spin around 16.40200° N, 84.27754° W. Probably the first of many vortices to spin up before something can dominate and build up.

[TomballEd]

It is still too soon to rule anyplace safe, but the majority of the GEFS are New Orleans area to SW Florida. A hint of two favored tracks from the GEFS, towards general New Orleans-Mobile area or SW Florida. 8 or 9 days out, although not much ensemble action, Florida Panhandle and Big Bend are still in the game.

Canadian ensembles have a different split, Florida Panhandle or Louisiana and extending as far W as Houston. I'm still feeling Florida, not sure whether Panhandle/Big Bend or the Peninsula, but anywhere Cameron Parish Louisiana to Marco Island.

They blocked Giphy at work. But loop 144 to 240 on Tropical Tidbits.

[Lightning48]

[quote][/quoteFrank P
]Let's just see how well that FL shield is working come October with a possible back loaded season...

I agree with you Frank-The complacency in and around the Tampa Bay area is scary!All it takes is one front's timing to be off or an overblown ridge or things of that nature that has been saving us forever to change and go against Tampa and the devastation would catastrophic.