Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS the ridging is a little weaker with the 1014 mb isobar retreating NE into Georgia. Storm is dropping into the 970's south of Mobile bay at 180 hours.

[DunedinDave]

12z GFS developing this south of Isle of Youth. Way more east. But moves it more NNW into New Orleans. Definitely a more unique track compared to what we’ve seen.

[Frank P]

The sat IR loop I posted earlier today in the NW Caribbean has seen its convection fade during the past several hours and now the area off to the SW of that area is looking more interesting with its building convection.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS continues to push back the trough timing and allows the ridge to build over Florida.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS into Mississippi coast

12z Canadian into Central Louisiana

12z Icon Destin.

I think we are starting to see some consolidation onto northern gulf coast

[DunedinDave]

So did the TB area dodge another bullet? Crazy how we keep getting lucky.

[LadyBug72]

12z GFS developing this south of Isle of Youth. Way more east. But moves it more NNW into New Orleans. Definitely a more unique track compared to what we’ve seen.

Is it into NOLA or the MS Coast? It is very hard to see.

[Pipelines182]

So did the TB area dodge another bullet? Crazy how we keep getting lucky.

way too early to assume anyone dodged anything yet

[cheezyWXguy]

I’ve been watching the last several runs of these models for key details, and here’s what I’ve gathered:

- from run to run, there’s a general consistency with when the gyre takes shape, but there is notable inconsistency in where/when/how the resultant TC forms. Sometimes from an area of vorticity on the periphery of the gyre, sometimes from the gyre itself.
- earlier, stronger development is inversely related to the strength of whatever epac tc forms in the same time period. I’m not sure how legitimate the epac tc is. I am also not sure why the epac tc exerts influence on the Atlantic tc, but seemingly not vice-versa. Maybe someone can answer this

[ConvergenceZone]

No longer much model support for anything particularly intense. Looks weak and strung out.

I thought the latest GFS model was showing hurricane strength still? Or maybe there's been another one since then that I missed.

[Frank P]

12z GFS run landfall Biloxi, Sat Sept 28th.

[Pelicane]

12z GEFS is still aggressive with this developing in the Caribbean. Looks fairly concentrated.

[gatorcane]

GFS continues to push back the trough timing and allows the ridge to build over Florida.

Yep, GFS saved loop. A FL peninsula hit not looking likely with that 500MB setup and the CMC has even a stronger ridge. Northern Gulf coast on the other hand...

[Stratton23]

GFS/CMC into lousiana but ridge builds in and shoves future heline into se texas lol

[TomballEd]

Despite hostile shear and dry air wrapoing in, the GFS still deepens it, or the power of high ocean heat content is immense.

If the shear turns out weaker, and is less able tp push dry air towards the core, then what looks like a Cat 1 or Cat 2 now could be stronger. Gulf Coast is *probably* catching a break.

[ThomasW]

12z GEFS with an uptrend.

[Woofde]

12z GEFS is still aggressive with this developing in the Caribbean. Looks fairly concentrated.

Yeah the Operational is on the front edge of the ensemble cluster. These two model images are the same timestamp. Usually the operational trends towards the ensembles and not the reverse. Still a massive range of outcomes, which makes sense given that we still don't have a disturbance.

[SFLcane]

GFS continues to push back the trough timing and allows the ridge to build over Florida.

Yep, GFS saved loop. A FL peninsula hit not looking likely with that 500MB setup and the CMC has even a stronger ridge. Northern Gulf coast on the other hand...

https://i.postimg.cc/Nfmk4RTS/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh72-168.gif

"Florida Shield"

[DunedinDave]

GFS continues to push back the trough timing and allows the ridge to build over Florida.

Yep, GFS saved loop. A FL peninsula hit not looking likely with that 500MB setup and the CMC has even a stronger ridge. Northern Gulf coast on the other hand...

https://i.postimg.cc/Nfmk4RTS/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh72-168.gif

"Florida Shield"

Amazing. We dodged another one.

[toad strangler]

FWIW, GEFS is still all over the place with a significant amount of members W of say Pensacola longitude and another group E of the there.