Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[psyclone]

Well with all this hype with models I guess the W Gulf Coast is all in the clear. Can we talk about the dynamics of what could make this move one way or another since no center is formed yet. Instead of posting a model well this model shows this location. Kinda makes people on here less aware of if and when or not coming to them. So novice in all this.

We're just gonna have to sit in the stands and wait on this one. No one's in the clear from something that doesn't yet exist. This is still technically a model storm but it has strong support and the nhc has it highlighted so we have a thread.

[StPeteMike]

I’ve been keeping track of the Temp forecasts for the Southeast region to see if they keep the trough or if the ridge builds in and keeps this either stalling or moving west/nw like the Euro. So far, the trough is still expected it seems and definitely can be seen in the temperature difference in Atlanta from Tuesday to Thursday. Tallahassee sees the through Thursday to Saturday. Seems like once it gets past Gainesville area (temperature decrease is lesser here), the trough either stalls or falls apart and that can be seen with the no change in temperature in the Tampa and Orlando forecasts.

I will say, not sure what models the Apple Weather App uses. Accuweather shows lower temps for the Tampa to Fort Myers area, but this seems to be due to rain keeping them lower than a trough. Gainesville shows lower temps without rain forecasted on Accuweather.

My point, I’m still on the trough coming in train and no ridge. But, as mentioned from multiple posters, Sunday should give us a better grasp of the environmental setup. AND with my continuation of Michael analysis, sheer was forecasted to keep him disorganized a day before developing into a TD. Not saying this storm will be like Michael, but it’s more of using him as an example of how the models can struggle up to the day of development due to the CAG.

[Steve]

Much stronger low pressure in 00z icon over toward Oklahoma. Strange late September setup with no speculation as to why from me. Does that cutoff drag it up or push it NE? I don’t know.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 000&fh=180

[StPeteMike]

ICON 0z seems to continue to struggle with the CAG. Brings the potential low over Yucatán before speeding north, but seems to drag another low from the Pacific into the Bay of Campeche….

GFS 0z seems to have postponed any development until Wednesday possibly, but also has issues with the CAG.

This will be a headache for the next few days.

[Tailgater33]

Absolutely no model consistency from run to run but at least they seem to be trending weaker

[Stratton23]

I think i lost brain cells looking at the 00z runs, next up is the euro, man these CAG systems are an absolute nightmare to forecast

[AtlanticWind]

Much weaker and west on this run
Still a lot of uncertainties in this potential system

[otowntiger]

GFS much weaker- shows a low end cat 1/TS coming ashore near mobile now, and it’s pushed development back even further it looks like. Adds to my skepticism of consequential development.

[Stratton23]

Michael is a perfect example here, models were struggling to see michael form from the CAG, and we all know how that turned out when it finally broke free from the CAG, this is gonna be a very tough one to forecast as well

[Stormcenter]

GFS is showing a landfall on Sept. 27-28 timeframe.
That’s only a week away. I don’t like it.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS/Euro/CMC all three have an EPAC storm right off the coast of Mexico about a week from now. I think if that verifies it would hurt the chances of the Atlantic disturbance becoming too significant. But of course all of these individual model runs are just guesswork until an actual disturbance forms in a few days. Something to keep an eye on though.

[Stratton23]

Still a considerable spread in the 00z GEFS

[Woofde]

Despite the operational's downward shift, ensembles still support the potential for a strong storm. That said, after watching so many tropical failures this year, I can't help but subconsciously doubt this storm.

[mantis83]

Both gfs and cmc with a sloppy mess in the gulf. Hopefully the weaker trends will continue…….

[ThomasW]

Best analog here would be KAREN 2013 if these trends continue. Note the "if". However, the EPAC may receive TWO significant hurricanes instead, both of which could be threats to Mexico.

[ConvergenceZone]

Both gfs and cmc with a sloppy mess in the gulf. Hopefully the weaker trends will continue…….

I agree, what a different 24 hours makes. This thread goes from hyper active, to much less so... But I admit, 24 hours ago was scary the way the models were all showing a fairly strong system.

[Stormcenter]

But tomorrow it could flip back. I don’t trust the
models.

Both gfs and cmc with a sloppy mess in the gulf. Hopefully the weaker trends will continue…….

I agree, what a different 24 hours makes. This thread goes from hyper active, to much less so... But I admit, 24 hours ago was scary the way the models were all showing a fairly strong system.

[Stratton23]

Upper air pattern on every model is chaotically different, this is going to be extremely challenging ( the next few days ) of figuring out how this is going to evolve

[REDHurricane]

I think i lost brain cells looking at the 00z runs, next up is the euro, man these CAG systems are an absolute nightmare to forecast

That's exactly why this year I've decided to conserve my brain cells/sanity and only start seriously paying attention to any individual model run when at least some sort of disturbance exists... the CAG won't really even set up until around 48 hours from now, so none of these model runs mean anything other than "a disturbance is probably going to emerge in this area where conditions are expected to be conducive for TC development" to me at this point

[chaser1]

GFS is showing a landfall on Sept. 27-28 timeframe.
That’s only a week away. I don’t like it.

Don't like the idea of landfall on the 27/28? Well I don't even "buy it"! For that matter, I'm highly doubting that any EPAC tropical cyclone will develop either. While I'm on my "won't develop rant, Stratton suggests the present Model confusion reminds him of how the models could not see (distinguish) Hurricane Michael from the CAG.
So, kinda like the expression "can't see the forest for the trees", right?

Just NO There is no tree, and there is NO CAG. And that's the point. Models do what they're supposed to do but the "user" (us) need keep a perspective of what is happening in real time. A disturbance typically requires a couple days to organize, right? Hell, a CAG certainly takes a few days to evolve (if not a week). The reason that models keep pushing back the clock like an "abort mission" is because as we approach any semblance of a model forecast countdown, it realizes that there's no rocket on the launchpad

Look, I have no idea why Nina missed her flight or who neutered the MJO but until some other factor removes the kryptonite from the remainder of this hurricane season then neither Superman nor Batman will save this Riddler of a season.

One must also remember that to blame the models is akin to blaming the mailman. Us humans dont understand how we failed to anticipate the stable & unfavorable conditions throughout the tropics for most of the season. We hypothesize, rationalize, make excuses, and eventually attempt to self correct. Computer model forecasts do the same exact thing but rather than waive their arms and talk like we do, they simply produce graphics instead