Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[jfk08c]

FWIW…18Z GFS.

POOF! A mess of rain and just a cluster really of not much. So it is the 18Z of which many poo poo on.

And in the SC GOM.

I knew GFS was on crack when I saw a cat 5 hitting Tampa. The new model run seems much more realistic.

Ridge didn't trap it this run so it didn't have time to consolidate and strengthen

[Ivanhater]

Euro AI in line with Canadian

Sent from my motorola razr plus 2023 using Tapatalk

[Teban54]

18z GEFS still shows two camps, one further east (that will presumably head north soon just like the operational this time), and one still sticking to a western solution. If anything, the split is much more notable this run.

Trend:

[Stratton23]

CMC is about 150-200 miles to the west of the Euro AIFS lol, also big spilt at hour 168 on the 18z GEFS

[LAF92]

18z GEFS still shows two camps, one further east (that will presumably head north soon just like the operational this time), and one still sticking to a western solution. If anything, the split is much more notable this run.

Trend:


https://i.postimg.cc/8kv2ww58/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh168-trend.gif

[LAF92]

18z GEFS still shows two camps, one further east (that will presumably head north soon just like the operational this time), and one still sticking to a western solution. If anything, the split is much more notable this run.

Trend:


https://i.postimg.cc/8kv2ww58/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh168-trend.gif

Pretty cut and dry east solution compared to the west soliton. Let the battle commence

[Emmett_Brown]

Overall, less model agreement today. Feels like we are going backward; solutions are all over the place. Hopefully tomorrow clears things up a bit.

[Ivanhater]

CMC is about 150-200 miles to the west of the Euro AIFS lol, also big spilt at hour 168 on the 18z GEFS

As much in line as you can get with such a huge split. I'd say both showing Louisiana is in line giving the spread between bay of Campeche to Tampa

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS through 192 hours is way more spread out

[Teban54]

18z GEFS through 192 hours is way more spread out

And the western camp has trended even further west compared to earlier GEFS runs:

[Frank P]

18z GEFS through 192 hours is way more spread out

And the western camp has trended even further west compared to earlier GEFS runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/76zTfjNY/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh204-trend.gif

Most of the 18z members are now west of the operational model

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS through 192 hours is way more spread out

And the western camp has trended even further west compared to earlier GEFS runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/76zTfjNY/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh204-trend.gif

Most of the 18z members are now west of the operational model

Na majority still Florida.

[Frank P]

And the western camp has trended even further west compared to earlier GEFS runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/76zTfjNY/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh204-trend.gif

Most of the 18z members are now west of the operational model

Na majority still Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/wjkPt01d/IMG-9450.gif

I said west of the operational model not west of FL. Ops model was Tampa Bay most are west of it.

[SFLcane]

Most of the 18z members are now west of the operational model

Na majority still Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/wjkPt01d/IMG-9450.gif

I said west of the operational model not west of FL. Ops model was Tampa Bay most are west of it.

18z was about 25-30 miles further south from the 12z.

[SFLcane]

Guessing game till we have an actual disturbance. HP that had been protecting FL has been gone last two runs. We shall see

[TomballEd]

People are acting surprised that a complex CAG set up, possible destructive interference from a Pacific storm from the same CAG, and formation location not known since there aren't even thunderstorms in the Gulf excluding daytime storms firing over land. And the mid and upper heights that will effect steering will be affected by systems over the Pacific with no sounding data. There is remote sensing and some aircraft (the air freight companies are good about this) data, so it isn't a complete unknown.

A sign of a GFS phantom cane in the W. Caribbean is often each days runs have the system the same number of days away. The other models have this, so a phantom cane is less likely, but if we're still talking about a storm forming 5 or 7 days away this time week, I'm going to start to lose faith in the whole thing. I still think, only because various models are seeing a similar scenario. Climatology at the end of September (or maybe early October as the model delays continue) says if it makes it to the Gulf, Central Louisiana to the Gulf coast of Florida will be the most likely landfall target. Strength can't be predicted this early, because shear can't be predicted this long off, and the time over the Gulf with very high OHC, which is a product of the steering.

I still think there is better than 50% chance of TC development, and it likely gets to the Florida Gulf coast, one way or the other.

[ronjon]

Guessing game till we have an actual disturbance. HP that had been protecting FL has been gone last two runs. We shall see

Perhaps a precursor to a faster solution. Seems intuitive that a faster solution may be in store this time of year as we head toward the end of Sept. But as I mentioned yesterday, we're gonna get vastly different solutions until we get better consensus on the 500 mb pattern next week.

[cheezyWXguy]

And the western camp has trended even further west compared to earlier GEFS runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/76zTfjNY/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh204-trend.gif

Most of the 18z members are now west of the operational model

Na majority still Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/wjkPt01d/IMG-9450.gif

Should be noted that a number of members in both camps get quite strong, even some of the faster ones that landfall Florida. Stronger scenarios are just as much in play as weaker ones at this point.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1836780653364322411

[otowntiger]

Overall, less model agreement today. Feels like we are going backward; solutions are all over the place. Hopefully tomorrow clears things up a bit.

I think the trend for less agreement, less run to run consistency, more spread, and pushed back timing means there is less and less chance that this thing will ever develop into anything of consequence. It seems there is a good chance it ends up over in the WPAC.