Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[chaser1]

12Z GFS could not have possibly ended better! Storm #2 maintains due west motion sparing Miami, just to ravage poor Cuba to the south. But then at 354 hr. the storm slips SW just south of W. Cuba and re-intensifies to 964 mb with all ridging collapsing and a new trough fast dropping out of the Midwest hanging south to the Louisiana coast, and at 372 hr's the strengthening small hurricane appears poised once again to aim for S. Florida.

[cheezyWXguy]

Imagine the NHC posting a cone right now? It would be from Tampa over to Texas coast. Just saying.

That would be the case if the cone contained actual track uncertainty, but instead it shows statistical track uncertainty based on historical margin of error.

[StPeteMike]

12Z GFS could not have possibly ended better! Storm #2 maintains due west motion sparing Miami, just to ravage poor Cuba to the south. But then at 354 hr. the storm slips SW just south of W. Cuba and re-intensifies to 964 mb with all ridging collapsing and a new trough fast dropping out of the Midwest hanging south to the Louisiana coast, and at 372 hr's the strengthening small hurricane appears poised once again to aim for S. Florida.

GFS got confused and thought this was 18z with the Happy Hour run.

[DunedinDave]

GFS is on crack. All they’re doing is copying Hurricane Phoenix’s track and plotting the points. This stuff ain’t funny dude.

[Steve]

Canadian 976mb landfall south of lake Charles but on a northward heading. There is almost no eastern component and in fact even after landfall it goes north and hooks a little left into Kansas. That’s a really odd track for late September.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=210

The difference with the CMC vs the GFS is that the Canadian builds a ridge between the east coast cut off and a low center around Oklahoma.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=198

[chaser1]

And there you have it. Cliff hanger LOL. At 380 hr's, the hurricane is over the extreme Western tip of Cuba at 960 mb drifting NE. "HELLO Key West & Cape Coral, I see you".

That GFS run was more fun then expected. Think I need a cold shower after that 12Z fantasy.

[3090]

Imagine the NHC posting a cone right now? It would be from Tampa over to Texas coast. Just saying.

That would be the case if the cone contained actual track uncertainty, but instead it shows statistical track uncertainty based on historical margin of error.

I was not being serious obviously. The NHC is never going to issue a forecast track without a storm. I was simply trying to convey a message of wide uncertainty. The GFS tends to over amplify trofs and will have an east bias. The EURO has a left bias and under estimates trof axis. So as typical this early we have nothing of certainty.

[DunedinDave]

I don't know where it's going other than to say it won't be Tampa bay. We don't mess with these. You can tell us a cat 5 is coming and people will shrug their shoulders and move on. I distinctly recall people grumbling on the lead up to Ian about how they never come here...and they were right...again. tampa bay will not prepare for a hurricane again until they are first crushed which hasn't happened in over a century. The professional class has given us too many false alarms and we are totally done. We just waitin' on a cold front...

The good news is it’s got a cat 5 hitting us 10 days out. Every major Hurricane I’ve ever known to go into the Gulf has at least had a model that’s slammed Tampa Bay. Then when we get to within 72 hours they go south or north. So I’m glad we’re getting these runs out of the way now. Cause the big one that hits us is going to be one that no model has coming our way and will at the last second like Ian did to Fort Myers.

[Ubuntwo]

I don't think there is one cloud in the region yet that will be associated with the spin up. Thus, it's "pin the tail on the donkey" every model cycle.

haha, maybe now we can take guesses on when the first cloud will show up. I'm thinking Sunday

Yeah, current model consensus is the first deep convection popping up on Sunday night.

[chaser1]

Canadian 976mb landfall south of lake Charles but on a northward heading. There is almost no eastern component and in fact even after landfall it goes north and hooks a little left into Kansas. That’s a really odd track for late September.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=210

The difference with the CMC vs the GFS is that the Canadian builds a ridge between the east coast cut off and a low center around Oklahoma.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=198

Meanwhile, it really seems like the GFS is overplaying the depth of the east CONUS trough at the beginning of the cycle, and then the depth of the W. Atlantic westward ridging at the end of that cycle.

[Fancy1002]

GFS is on crack. All they’re doing is copying Hurricane Phoenix’s track and plotting the points. This stuff ain’t funny dude.

It’s kinda funny. You gotta laugh at these fantasy runs.

[ThomasW]

I don't think there is one cloud in the region yet that will be associated with the spin up. Thus, it's "pin the tail on the donkey" every model cycle.

haha, maybe now we can take guesses on when the first cloud will show up. I'm thinking Sunday

Around 15z Saturday.

[SFLcane]

FWIW... GEFS 12z Ensembles still like the middle to eastern GOM. Not seeing much get past New Orleans longitude through 204 hours.

Destruction for FL lol..

[DunedinDave]

GFS is on crack. All they’re doing is copying Hurricane Phoenix’s track and plotting the points. This stuff ain’t funny dude.

It’s kinda funny. You gotta laugh at these fantasy runs.

Yeah but there’s gonna come a day (hopefully after I’ve left this earth) where this kind of run will be a reality.

[AutoPenalti]

And now the MDR hurricane is bombing out in the WCAR I can’t with this run

https://i.imgur.com/P3ePejO.gif

What the hell is that...

[Teban54]

12 GFS is out to 126 hr's and i'm seeing shades of the goal posts moving back a bit. The EPAC low and W Caribbean Low seems to be part of the overall Gyre thus delaying development for the larger overall feature. Also as a sidenote, forget about ex-Gordon or the E. MDR wave coming off Africa. Seems that GFS is just not feeling them up to 126 hr's.

Narrator: The Eastern MDR wave survived until 384 hrs while threatening South Florida twice.

[StPeteMike]

Canadian 976mb landfall south of lake Charles but on a northward heading. There is almost no eastern component and in fact even after landfall it goes north and hooks a little left into Kansas. That’s a really odd track for late September.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=210

The difference with the CMC vs the GFS is that the Canadian builds a ridge between the east coast cut off and a low center around Oklahoma.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=198

Meanwhile, it really seems like the GFS is overplaying the depth of the east CONUS trough at the beginning of the cycle, and then the depth of the W. Atlantic westward ridging at the end of that cycle.

I have seen many years of overdoing and underdoing (it’s a word! haha) of potential troughs, even a day or so out.

But I’ll say that the forecasted ridge is being overdone in this instance. The trough is still expected to be close to the region Friday/Saturday according to the local temperature/precipitation chances here. I don’t see a ridge staying over the southeast as the Canadian is modeling.

[TomballEd]

The Tampa Bay thing, 50 years ago when I was a student in Catholic school I checked out a book from the school library about hurricanes written by a man from Tampa who had shot down a Japanese plane at Pearl Harbor. Anyway, he said Tampa seems to have a protective force field, he recalled several forecast misses and sudden weakening. But 50 years ago people in Tampa thought there was a magic field. Something to do with Native Americans, IIRC.

Of course, a big hurricane will hit Tampa Bay, but the frequency seems low.

I got interested in hurricanes first from my parents' stories of 1938, and then Hurricane Belle in 1976. My Dad wouldn't let me go outside for the eye.

Will the force field hold again?

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[chaser1]

"Alex, I think I'll go with Alabama for $500"
Daily double!
"Um, who are the GFS 18Z Happy Hour model run victims this time around?"